Heading into the 2025 season the Vikings drafted J.J McCarthy in the first round to be the future face of the franchise but he eventually suffered an injury that ended his season prematurely. Leading to Sam Darnold taking the helm for the Vikings this year and guiding Minnesota to a 14-3 record. In the early portion of the 2024 season Minnesota was tied for the best record in the league and I was firmly of the mindset that they were the best team in the NFC if not the NFL after 5 weeks. Heading into their week 6 matchup with the Detroit Lions the Vikings held a 10-0 lead but Detroit eventually proved to be the much better team leading for the remainder of the game up until they fumbled inside their own territory which the Vikings returned for a touchdown. That was the only instance where the Vikings held the lead in the latter portion of the game but Detroit still ended up winning 31-29 on a last second field goal. Minnesota proceeded to lose a close game the next week on the road vs the Los Angeles Rams by a final score of 30-20. Since then, the Vikings never seemed to capture the form they had earlier in the season as they consistently struggled to beat opponents of the caliber that they dominated earlier in the year. For instance, in the early portion of the season the Vikings beat the AFC South champions Houston Texans by a final score of 34-7, led the entire game vs the defending NFC Champion 49ers, and were up 28-0 on the road vs Green Bay although they were only able to win that game by only two points. Later in the season I felt as if Minnesota had recaptured the form they once had by blowing out the Atlanta Falcons, leading the entire game vs the Green Bay Packers including by three possessions at times, blowing out the Chicago Bears, and leading for almost the entire game on the road vs Seattle. Heading into the team’s week 18 matchup vs Detroit where they had a chance to clinch the number one overall seed in the NFC against an injury riddled Lions defense, I expected Minnesota to come out on top. As the Detroit defense with all the injuries they sustained looked like a shell of itself and was playing as weak as a defense could possibly play for the past several weeks leading up to the week 18 collision between the two for the division crown and the #1 seed. Minnesota vs that defense was only able to tally 9 points as Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had Sam Darnold’s and Kevin O’Connell’s number. The Vikings lost that contest by a final score of 31-9 and clinched the NFC’s #5 seed and a wild card spot instead of the #1 overall seed as a result. Heading into the team’s wild card matchup the Vikings were a 2.5-point favorite over the Los Angeles Rams who held only a 10-7 record compared to Minnesota holding a 14-3 record. The wild card game was a disaster for the Vikings as they were only able to score 9 points once again for the second consecutive week this time losing 27-9 and having their season end. Darnold again struggled mightily and the last two games of the season for the Vikings quarterback marked a horrid end to an otherwise remarkable season he had.
One of the biggest question marks heading into this year’s NFL offseason is how the Vikings will handle their quarterback situation between Darnold and McCarthy. As stated previously Darnold had a remarkable first 16 games of the season before it ended on a very sour note in the last two games. Sam Darnold is very talented and was once a top 10 draft pick for a reason but also served as a backup quarterback in the NFL for a large portion of his career perhaps for a reason as well. Darnold is the safer choice as Minnesota knows they will get a solid player who can consistently lead them to the playoffs. But the horrid end he had to the year cannot be simply overlooked and his lack of success in the NFL up until joining the Vikings also cannot be overlooked. The fact that the Vikings will be obliged to pay Darnold heading into the offseason as he is a free agent also has to be factored in as Minnesota will not have to pay McCarthy legitimate money for another 3 years as he will be on a rookie contract. However, there are question marks that also loom in siding with McCarthy as he has not proven he can play in the NFL at a high level like Darnold has and McCarthy has not played in an NFL game as of yet and he is coming off a torn ACL. Additionally, it would be hard for a quarterback to lead to a team to a better record than Darnold led Minnesota to this season which was a sterling 14-3 mark which was bested only by the number one seed in each respective conference and was a mark that no team over the entirety of the 2023 season even reached. If it were up to me, I would go with J.J McCarthy just because the Vikings invested such a high draft pick on him and they have to at least see what they have with him. Along with acknowledging that Kevin O’Connell as an offensive mind and the weapons that the Vikings possess on offense rank up there with that of any team in professional football. So, lots of capable quarterbacks could have produced to the level that Darnold did during the 2024 campaign. It would also be next to impossible for a quarterback to perform any worse over a team’s last regular season game and first playoff game than how Darnold did. McCarthy is also younger and more of an athlete than Darnold is in a league that is transitioning to the quarterback position requiring more athletic ability. Regardless of who the Vikings roll with at the quarterback spot next year they will likely be a playoff team and regardless of who is QB1 for Minnesota next season the roster will need to be upgraded in order for them to truly contend for a Super Bowl.
On the offensive side of the ball the Vikings during the course of the 2024 campaign finished 9th in terms of overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus as well as finishing 9th in total points scored. I have conducted an analysis of the offensive personnel of the Vikings which can be found below. I have assigned each player a subjective grade that indicates how strong of players I deem them to be in totality based upon yearly statistical output and yearly subjective grades given to them by Pro Football Focus.
Starters
LT – Christian Darrisaw – B+ to A-
LG – Dalton Risner – C+, free agent
C – Garrett Bradbury – C to C+
RG – Ed Ingram – C to C+
RT – Brian O’Neill – B+ to A-
WR1 – Justin Jefferson – A to A+
WR2 – Jordan Addison – B to B+
TE1 – T.J Hockenson – B+ to A-
HB1 – Aaron Jones – A-, free agent
Notable Reserves
T – Cam Robinson – C to C+, free agent
T – David Quessenberry – C+, free agent
(Both players filled in for Darrisaw during the 2024 campaign after he suffered a season ending injury)
TE2 – Josh Oliver – B to B+
WR3 – Jalen Nailor – C+ to B-
-The remaining Vikings offensive reserves all are average to mediocre caliber NFL players
The skill position players were the driving force of the offensive attack as the Vikings collection of skill position talent at the receiver and running back positions ranked up there with any team in the NFL. Number one wideout Justin Jefferson is perhaps the best overall wide receiver in the NFL. Tight end T.J Hockenson is one of the best tight ends in professional football as well. Throughout the course of his career, he consistently graded among the top 10 tight ends in the NFL in terms of overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus. Number two wideout Jordan Addison who was a first round pick in 2023 has emerged as one of the better overall number two wide receivers in the NFL. As he would have had nearly if not 1,000 receiving yards in 2024 if he did not miss a few games due to injury this past season. Halfback Aaron Jones, who signed with the team in the offseason although he is not necessarily in the same class as the likes of Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley is one of the best overall running backs in the game of football. Jones throughout the course of his career has graded in the top 6 among all running backs in terms of offense grade according to Pro Football Focus on 4 different occasions in 8 different seasons. In the remaining 4 seasons he still consistently finished in the top 10-20 among all qualified running backs who accumulated a certain number of snaps. The weakness of the team this past season was the offensive line as although Pro Football Focus graded the Vikings offensive line as the 14th best run blocking unit and the 15th best pass blocking unit, the objective statistical production was relatively poor. The Vikings offensive line ranked 27th out of 32 in terms of pass blocking efficiency and ranked 30th in sacks allowed. Heading into the year the team had stellar tackle play led by Christian Darrisaw at left tackle and Brian O’Neill at right tackle. The team’s interior offensive line was indeed a question mark however as all three listed starters were just average to mediocre caliber NFL players. Once star left tackle Christian Darrisaw suffered a season ending injury, the already flimsy Minnesota offensive line which was overly reliant on the tackles took another step backwards. The team signed former second round pick Cam Robinson to replace him. With Darrisaw in the lineup the Vikings offensive line ranked (24/32) in terms of pass blocking efficiency and then without him they ranked (27/32) in that same category. The teams lack of success in regards to protecting the passer can be linked to the team having high level tackle play that is not elite, however. Christian Darrisaw as aforementioned is a very strong player but is not quite in the Trent Williams’ class as being a truly elite player at the position who is in the conversation for being the best overall left tackle in the game. Similar logic applies to right tackle Brian O’Neill who is consistently an above average to a well above average player but has never been a truly elite one either. Both the tackles in their time this season finished being ranked just outside the top 10 among all tackles in terms of overall offense grade with the two-finishing 11th and 12th respectively in that category. The production that those individuals produced this past season mirrored the production they had in all the years prior in their NFL career as well. The offensive line play dipped even further when starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw suffered a season ending injury in week 7 of the season. As stated previously the Vikings acquired 2nd rounder Cam Robinson to fill in for Darrisaw and although he was such as high draft pick, his NFL production has been consistently mediocre as he had graded as a below average player in every single season he has played in the NFL. The really good to great but not elite tackle play that eventually saw star left tackle Darrisaw suffer a season ending injury. Combined with the average to mediocre interior offensive line play. Combined with quarterback Sam Darnold not being overly mobile and being able to avoid sacks. All led to the Viking incurring far too many sacks this past season and having mediocre production in totality on the offensive front.
Heading into the 2025 offseason along with figuring out the logistics of the quarterback situation between Darnold and McCarthy a point of emphasis should be to upgrade the offensive line. Heading into this offseason the Vikings currently have the 4th most cap space in the NFL where they should firstly re-sign star halfback Aaron Jones and then invest in the interior of the offensive line. The free agent interior offensive line class this offseason is stacked with talent as there are more than a few pro bowl to all-pro caliber players available such as Chiefs interior guard Trey Smith, Falcons Center Drew Dalman, among many others of a similar caliber. If the Vikings can upgrade the interior of the offensive line while also retaining star running back Aaron Jones, the Vikings offensive personnel will rank up there with any team in professional football. Upgrading the interior of the offensive line along with their quarterback play improving as well with either Darnold taking the next step or McCarthy being an upgrade can potentially see the Vikings go from being a top 10 offense which they were this season to being a top 5 offense next season which would be a massive step.
The defensive side of the ball saw the Vikings rank as a top 5 scoring defense in the NFL this past season along with them being graded as the number 11 defense in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. This can be contributed to defensive coordinator Brian Flores being one of the smartest defensive minds in the game today. The Vikings overall personnel on the defensive side of the ball was average to mediocre but the production was borderline elite which shows you how well coached they were on the defensive side of the ball by Flores. Based on their statistical output on a year-by-year basis along with factoring in subjective grades that have been assigned to them by Pro Football Focus throughout the duration of their career I have assigned each player on the Minnesota defense a grade which can be found below.
Starters
LDE – Jerry Tillery – C+ to B-, free agent
NT – Harrison Phillips – C+ to B-
RDE – Jonathan Bullard – C, free agent
WLB – Jonathan Greenard – B-
LILB – Kamu Grugier-Hill – D+ to C-, free agent
RILB – Blake Cashman – B+
SLB – Andrew Van Ginkel – B to B+
LCB1 – Stephon Gilmore – B to B+, free agent
SS – Harrison Smith – C+ to B-, free agent
FS – Camryn Bynum – C+ to B-, free agent
RCB – Shaquill Griffin – B, free agent
NB – Byron Murphy Jr – C+ to B-, free agent
Notable Reserves
LILB – Ivan Pace Jr – B to B+
SLB – Dallas Turner – 1st rounder 2024, C so far
NB – Josh Mettelus – B+ to A-
CB – Mekhi Blackmon – B+ in limited snaps
As you can see from the above date the Vikings defensive personnel is average to mediocre as they did not even have a singular player who started for them grade as an A caliber player. Despite that the defense still finished in the top 5 in points allowed. A similar story persisted for the Vikings on the defensive side of the ball as it did on offense. Where the personnel was questionable in large part but the production was consistently elite to borderline elite. Sam Darnold being a backup for most of his career and being ordinary in terms of talent, and the Vikings offensive line being one of the weaker units in the NFL especially after the injury to Darrisaw. But the Vikings still finishing as a top offense in terms of points scored. The Vikings personnel on the defensive side of the ball being relatively mediocre but Minnesota still finishing top 5 in points allowed this past season.
The defensive ranks of the Vikings during the 2024 regular season can be found below.
Points per game allowed – 5th
Yards per game allowed – 16th
Passing yards per game allowed – 28th
Rushing yards per game allowed – 2nd
Defense grade according to Pro Football Focus – 11th
Run-defense grade according to Pro Football Focus – 5th
Tackling grade according to Pro Football Focus – 5th
Sacks – 4th
Pass-rush grade according to Pro Football Focus – 25th
Coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus – 16th
As you can see from the above data the Vikings defensively were a very good to great unit during the 2024 campaign despite having the aforementioned mediocre talent on the defensive side of the ball. The defense was a borderline elite unit but not quite an elite unit last season ranking 5th in points and 11th in overall defense grade a season ago. Based on those two primary metrics one could certainly surmise that the Vikings overall for the 2024 season were a top 5-10 defense. If Minnesota wants to take the next step as a team, they will need to upgrade to being truly a top 1-5 caliber defense. As aforementioned their defense was very well coached last season but in terms of raw talent it was pretty average. Adding some star-power on the defensive side of the ball so that from a personnel standpoint they become something of note relative to their peers would go a long way in upgrading the defense. Ranking 4th in the NFL in cap space heading into the 2025 offseason the Vikings are certainly poised to take their defensive talent up a notch and they should be one of the most formidable defenses in professional football next season if they were to do so. Especially if they were to retain defensive coordinator Brian Flores in addition to it as well. Both the front seven and the back end of the defense could use some help from a personnel standpoint as I graded no starter on their defense to be of A caliber. The team also has several free agents on the defensive side of the ball, many of which are replaceable as they are just average level players. However, the one free agent on the defensive side of the ball who is a marquee player is Stephon Gilmore who ranks among the better corners in the NFL. The Vikings rank 4th in the NFL in cap space and should seek to retain him as the anchor of the secondary as he is very familiar with defensive coordinator Brian Flores dating back to New England.
Overall, the Vikings were maybe the pleasant surprise of professional football last season as no one expected them to win 14 games and many picked them to finish last in their division. Up until the final 2 weeks of the year the Vikings were a legitimate Super Bowl threat. Minnesota was a story of strong coaching last season and the value of it. The Vikings roster and quarterback talent do not indicate whatsoever that the team should have won 14 games. Sam Darnold was a backup for a large portion of his career even entering this season and from a raw talent standpoint in terms of size, arm strength, and mobility he is certainly nothing to write home about. The Vikings roster outside of their position players is very average if not less than average. But Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the premier offensive minds in the game of football and defensive coordinator Brian Flores is one of the premier defensive minds in the game of football. Obviously heading into the 2025 offseason the quarterback position between the likes of McCarthy and Darnold is a big question mark. A team that went 14-3 this past season is entering the offseason with the 4th most cap space in the NFL. If the team rolls with rookie J.J McCarthy as I believe they should, and if they use much of their cap space wisely to upgrade their roster. Minnesota can certainly make the leap from a fun regular season team who wins several games in the regular season to being a legitimate Super Bowl threat.
