When discussions are made about where teams in the NFL rank among their contemporaries one of the biggest things that gets overlooked is just the pure ability a team possesses to execute effectively come postseason time. When rankings are made by pundits and teams are juxtaposed to one another asking who is better and who isn’t, the team’s overall ceiling is often the primary thing that is taken into consideration. However, through careful observation I have observed that a team’s capacity to execute effectively especially come postseason time is perhaps not quite as important but nearly as important as a team’s overall ceiling.
When I reference the term “overall ceiling” I mean how effective of a team they are when they are rolling on or near all cylinders. When I reference a team’s ability to execute cleanly, I mean how effective they are in regards to not committing turnovers/penalties, how sound they are on special teams, and how strong they are late in games. This past season the three teams who had the highest ceiling were the Ravens, Lions, and Eagles and Pro Football Focus even agreed with me in that regard as they had those three teams graded as the three best teams in the regular season. The Lions were graded 93.8 in terms of an overall grade, with the Eagles being at 93.3, and Baltimore being at 93.0. With the next closest team being at 92.0, who was Atlanta that had a very questionable QB position, after Atlanta no one was higher than 90.2. Indicating that just like I thought, those three teams were a cut above the rest of the league in terms of an overall ceiling. As those three teams were the only three teams who were elite on both sides of the ball. But the question remains why did the Eagles win the Super Bowl out of the three? The answer to that question is the ability to execute cleanly in the postseason.
In terms of an overall ceiling when the three teams were on their A game, all three of the teams were neck and neck. The Ravens had the best QB out of three while being graded at 93.0, the Eagles had the best defense out of the three while being graded at 93.3, and the Lions had the best offense out of the three while being graded at 93.8. 93.8 to 93.0 is hardly a delineation at all, and once attrition for Detroit started to kick in, and Baltimore’s defense got rolling with first year defensive coordinator Zach Orr, the three teams were pretty much even in terms of an overall ceiling as Detroit pulled back a bit and Baltimore rose up with stronger play on defense. Yes, were there slight delineating factors among the three teams in terms of an overall ceiling? Absolutely, especially once Detroit started to suffer major defensive injuries. But even once attrition kicked in for the Lions and before it as well the three teams were all neck and neck in terms of being the best team in the league when on their A game. Although one could certainly argue that any of the three teams had the slight edge over the others in terms of ceiling, which certainly still matters, that would not be the delineating factor among them. The delineating factor would be who could bring their A game come postseason time with a large portion of bringing one’s A game revolving around playing clean mistake free football. The Ravens, Lions, and Eagles this past season were all neck and neck with regards to who had the highest overall ceiling as a team. One could make strong arguments for each of the three teams in that regard but regardless even if one argued for one team having the higher ceiling, it would still be by a very small amount and although that would still matter, that’s not what would decide who came out on top amongst the three teams. The primary reason Philadelphia ended up winning it all and not Detroit or Baltimore was clean execution come postseason time. The Ravens had a -3-turnover differential in their postseason loss, the Lions had a -5-turnover differential in their postseason loss, and the Eagles never had a negative turnover differential in any postseason game this past year and ended up winning the Super Bowl. One could certainly argue that the Eagles did not even have the highest ceiling out of the three as Detroit and Baltimore were better offensive teams in an offensive league. But Philadelphia, especially after all the injuries the Lions suffered, were still in the same realm as the other two with regards to having the highest overall ceiling as a team. Even when the Eagles played the Ravens in the regular season the two teams were neck and neck, trading scores, showing that their overall ceiling as teams were neck and neck. But the Eagles ended up winning that game 24-19 because the Ravens missed two field goals and an extra point leaving 7 points on the board in a 5-point loss and Philadelphia did not make mistakes like that. The Ravens also had twice as many penalties as Philadelphia and again missed three kicks compared to the Eagles not missing any kicks.
If you read the above, one would certainly surmise that I do not hold a team’s overall ceiling in that high of a regard but it still certainly matters. No other NFL team was in the same league as the Lions, Eagles, and Ravens in terms of an overall ceiling this past season. If any other team played the Ravens, Eagles, or Lions, and those three teams executed well enough even if they made more mistakes, those three teams would unequivocally win. The Chiefs are notorious for executing cleanly and effectively in the post-season but it did not matter vs the Eagles in the Super Bowl. As the Chiefs’ ceiling as a team wasn’t close to Philadelphia’s overall ceiling as a team in a blowout loss.
The importance of clean execution is exemplified perhaps in the most abundantly clear way by the Chiefs’ three Super Bowl triumphs with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. In all three Super Bowls that Kansas City has won, they had the lower ceiling than the other team in each game. In the first Super Bowl vs the 49ers the Chiefs were down 10 heading into the 4th quarter showing the 49ers higher ceiling as a team which San Francisco also exemplified all season long. But the Chiefs were able to execute cleaner by having their best quarter of the game in the 4th quarter while the 49ers had likely their worst quarter of the game in the 4th quarter of that Super Bowl.
In the Chiefs’ second Super Bowl triumph vs Philadelphia, the Eagles were up 10 points at halftime and the only reason it was not worse was because the Eagles fumbled the ball inside their own territory which Kansas City recovered and returned for a touchdown. All season long the Eagles had the higher ceiling than the Chiefs and the only reason it was not bigger than a 10-point halftime deficit for Kansas City was a costly fumble by the Eagles. In the 2nd half the Chiefs had a 65-yard punt return while likewise the Eagles gave up that same 65-yard punt return. The Eagles higher ceiling was shown by their performances all season long along with their first half performance vs Kansas City. But the Chiefs, just like in their first Super Bowl triumph were close enough in terms of a ceiling and executed cleaner and better. They executed cleaner and better by not losing a fumble which was returned for a touchdown and not giving up a 65-yard punt return like the Eagles did. Kansas City’s sharp execution is also evidenced by the Eagles coming out strong in the first half but struggling in the 2nd half. While the Chiefs dominated the 2nd half although they struggled in the first. With the second half being the more important of the two halves.
In the Chiefs’ third Super Bowl triumph the logic of them having a lower ceiling than their opposition but executing cleaner continues to persist not just for the Super Bowl but the conference titles as well. The four reaming teams in the 2023 season which was the third Super Bowl that Mahomes/Reid won, were the Lions, 49ers, Ravens, and Chiefs. Out of the four one could make a very strong argument that Kansas City had the lowest ceiling of the four but still ended up winning the Super Bowl out of the four. The Ravens had one of the most dominant regular seasons in league history while Kansas City was just above .500 for periods of time at 8-5 or 9-6 while struggling mightily offensively. While the Ravens were looking like a historically great juggernaut destroying playoff teams by three or more possessions on nearly a weekly basis finishing with the #1 seed in the AFC at 13-4 compared to Kansas City’s 11-6 mark. The Lions were up 24-7 on the #1 seed 49ers on the road in the conference title, something the Chiefs were not capable of doing that year. In the Super Bowl when the 49ers played the Chiefs the 49ers had the higher ceiling as they did all season, leading for the vast majority of regulation. But the Chiefs were close enough in terms of an overall ceiling that with the 49ers making two crucial special teams mistakes, the game went to overtime. The Chiefs cleaner and more effective execution also showed in the overtime period as well. As the 49ers on their opening overtime drive were only able to manage a field goal while Kansas City on their opening overtime drive were able to come away with a touchdown. The Lions and Ravens having a higher ceiling but not executing as well was evidenced by the Lions and Ravens making several crucial mistakes in their conference title losses in the form of penalties/turnovers in particular. In the 2023 season the Chiefs likely had the lowest ceiling of all the four remaining teams but still ended up winning the Super Bowl because they executed the cleanest and the best out of the four conference finalists. In every Super Bowl that Kansas City has won with Mahomes/Reid they have had the lower ceiling but still came out on top every time as a result of executing cleaner. But just like I stated before, one would certainly think that I do not hold a team’s overall ceiling in high regard although that is not the case whatsoever. Kansas City with Mahomes/Reid being an elite coach + QB duo and always having a strong roster, most of the time have a ceiling that is close enough to their opposition which allows their clean and effective execution to have them win games. If one’s ceiling as a team is not close enough to their opponent’s ceiling, the ability to execute cleanly as a team does not matter that much. For instance, Kansas City’s two blowout Super Bowl defeats to the hands of Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. Both teams just had a much higher ceiling than Kansas City in those years rendering the Chiefs’ ability to execute effectively of little use as the Chiefs’ ceiling was not high enough those years.
