NFL pre-draft QB rankings entering the 2025 season

Tier 1 – Elite Generational Talents – Can carry a team and will likely be in the pantheon of all time great quarterbacks at some point

1. Patrick Mahomes

There are several arguments to be made that strongly justify not ranking Patrick Mahomes as the #1 overall quarterback in the NFL. Just like there are several arguments to be made that the Chiefs should not be #1, but Mahomes is number one essentially by default just like the Chiefs were number one essentially by default in my power rankings. Some of the arguments that are made against Mahomes being number one include the following. The likes of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson from a statistical standpoint being just as good if not better than Mahomes as a passer and both those quarterbacks being inarguably better runners of the football. The likes of Joe Burrow showing the ability to overcome a very weak offensive line and get to a Super Bowl where Mahomes has not shown that he is capable of overcoming chaos around him to that extent. Mahomes was also given one of the greatest coaches ever and inherited a winning organization in the Kansas City Chiefs whereas the remaining three quarterbacks in this tier were not given those opportunities. Mahomes statistical production as a passer the past two seasons has been nothing to write home about as well. This year Mahomes finished as the 16^th highest rated passer while finishing 14^th in that same category a season ago. The Chiefs overall production on offense the last two seasons with Mahomes starting has been relatively pedestrian as well. The Chiefs ranked 15^th out of 32 teams in terms of points per game in each of the last two seasons with Mahomes starting.

This default ranking that I allude to comes from the fact that out of the remaining quarterbacks in this first group he is tied for having the most MVPs and he has three super bowl victories while no one else in this first group has any. From a talent standpoint one could certainly argue if not say with a strong level of certainty that a couple of the quarterbacks who are also in this first tier of quarterbacks with Mahomes are even more talented than Mahomes is. But they do not have the hardware in terms of championships that Mahomes has and the one individual in this group (Lamar Jackson) who one could make the strongest case for being more talented than Mahomes has lacked in the postseason the most out of the quarterbacks in this group.

2. Josh Allen

Allen is essentially a doppelganger of Patrick Mahomes where both are quarterbacks who have all time powerful arms who run as well. Patrick Mahomes has shown himself to be the slightly better thrower of the football and Josh Allen has shown himself to be the slightly better runner of the football. Bills coach Sean McDermott stated that it is only a matter of when not if the Bills win the Super Bowl and I agree with that sentiment.

3. Joe Burrow

Although the quarterback position has evolved in recent memory and dual threats quarterbacks are becoming more of a thing than they once were and mobility for a quarterback is becoming more important than it once was, throwing the football is still by far the most important trait for a quarterback. Burrow throws the ball the purest and the best out of all the quarterbacks in this first tier. Burrow in two of the three seasons he has been healthy has guided the Bengals to either the AFC Championship game or the Super Bowl losing in a very narrow fashion in each game in two years. The primary reasons Burrow is not higher on this list is because he has already sustained two season ending injuries, his team failed to make the postseason this year, and he has yet to capture a Super Bowl championship like the first player on this list.

4. Lamar Jackson

Out of the four quarterbacks in this first tier I am of the mindset that Lamar Jackson is the most talented out of the four but he remains at number four on the list because of his lackluster play in the postseason. From a talent standpoint Lamar Jackson is perhaps the most talented quarterback the game of football has ever seen. As no quarterback has been this consistently good in terms of running and throwing ever. However, performance in the postseason is neck and neck with talent for a quarterback and Jackson has lacked in that department thus far in his career. Although there have been signs of improvement in that department for Jackson especially last season where he and the Ravens advanced the furthest in the playoffs that they have ever advanced with him at the helm, he is still by far the weakest postseason quarterback out of all the quarterbacks in the top 4. As from a statistical standpoint his level of play and the Ravens’ overall success as a team noticeably regresses come postseason time with this happening on more than a few instances. Lamar Jackson has yet to deliver a high-level signature postseason performance as of yet either. And the remaining quarterbacks in the top 4 are close enough to Jackson from a talent standpoint as all are generational talents as well like Jackson is although they are perhaps not quite as talented.

In this tier the order of the quarterbacks matters quite a bit with Patrick Mahomes being a clear #1 primarily because he has won multiple Super Bowls and from a talent standpoint he is at the worst neck and neck with any of the remaining quarterbacks in this tier. Lamar Jackson being a clear #4 because he has consistently struggled in the postseason. Allen is definitively ahead of Burrow at this point because of the injuries Burrow has had and Burrow’s team failed to make the postseason this year and Allen’s team is one of the primary contenders to win it all as postseason play is about to ensue. While the level of play between Allen and Burrow is consistently neck and neck with one another as well.

Tier 1A – Generational Talents who need to prove it more by consistently reaching the postseason and getting more snaps in totality as an NFL starter, likely only a matter of when not if these two quarterbacks definitively reach the first tier of quarterbacks in the NFL

5. Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels had one of the best regular seasons a rookie quarterback has ever had in the 2024 campaign and he will be an elite quarterback for years to come. However, it was just one year of sample size with Daniels and now 2^nd year quarterback C.J Stroud has shown us that sophomore slumps are absolutely a thing. Jayden Daniels is a slightly lesser version of Lamar Jackson in terms of talent but that is nothing to be ashamed of as Lamar Jackson as aforementioned is perhaps the most talented quarterback the game of football has ever seen. Jayden Daniels has shown perhaps a slightly higher ceiling than Jackson in terms of throwing the football as he was breaking rookie passing records earlier this season and he was throwing the ball at statistically the same level as Jackson has ever reached without having nearly as strong of offensive personnel that Jackson has had. Daniels is not as big or strong as Jackson and does not seem to have quite as strong of an arm as Jackson does but the talent difference between Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson is minimal and Jayden Daniels does not have the track record of consistently coming up short in postseason play like Jackson unfortunately does at this point.

6. Justin Herbert

In terms of how the ball looks when it is released with regards to accuracy and velocity, Justin Herbert throws the football at a historically great level when I see him play. At the level Aaron Rodgers in his prime threw the football, at the level Dan Marino once threw the football, and in terms of velocity and accuracy how Patrick Mahomes is throwing the football. Jared Goff, I felt consistently throws the football at that level but lacked in terms of mobility and was unable to overcome weaker offensive line play. Goff possessing that weakness is why I rank Herbert ahead of Goff despite the fact that Goff has reached conference championships with multiple teams and Herbert has yet to win a playoff game. Justin Hebert is the better version of Jared Goff, possessing all the strengths that Goff has in terms of size, arm strength, and accuracy but Goff’s biggest weakness is overcome in the biggest way in the form of Justin Herbert as Herbert is noticeably more mobile and can overcome weaker offensive line play.

Tier 2 – Can win a Super Bowl

7. Matthew Stafford

A former number one overall pick who is currently the only starting quarterback outside of Patrick Mahomes who has won a Super Bowl championship is still one of the better quarterbacks in the game today despite advancing in age. The Rams were one of the few teams last season who truly had a shot to win the Super Bowl and they perhaps will have a shot entering this postseason as well in large part because of Stafford.

8. Jared Goff

Jared Goff is the most underrated quarterback in the game of football. With two separate franchises he has consistently been the starting quarterback of historically great offenses. The Lions this season with Goff starting all the games rank among the top five teams in NFL history with regards to offensive touchdowns scored. The Rams, with Goff at the helm, had one of the top scoring offenses in NFL history in 2018 when they made the Super Bowl. Goff has led each to a conference championship and has led the Rams to a Super Bowl and it feels as if a Super Bowl appearance for the Lions with Goff is imminent at some point. Goff’s ceiling as a quarterback is as high as any in the NFL and the criticisms of him arise from the fact that he has a lower floor than many of the star quarterbacks in the game today such as the ones who were present in tier 1. Because there is a stark drop off in his level of play with a weaker offensive line which is fine as no quarterback is perfect and not every quarterback can be in that first class. The football that Goff throws in terms of accuracy and velocity ranks up there with the likes of anyone ever including Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers in his prime, and Dan Marino. Goff consistently leading historically great offenses backs that thinking. Goff’s individual game numbers also back that logic as well. Goff holds the record for most pass attempts thrown in a game where the QB finished the game with a perfect passer rating. Goff also holds the record for most pass attempts in a game where the quarterback had a perfect passer rating and did not throw an incompletion. He just needs a better offensive line to allow him to produce like that for you. With strong help around him the output that Goff produces is as productive if not more productive as the output that many quarterbacks in the first tier would produce with the same level of strong help around them. However, with weaker help around him the output production with Goff would be noticeably lower than the quarterbacks in the first tier with a similar level of weak help around them. Goff’s inability to carry an offense and overcome chaos around him is why he remains in this second tier of quarterbacks.

9. Jalen Hurts

I think of Jalen Hurts as a Cam Newton type of player who is a power runner that can still throw the football very well. Hurts is not as tall as Cam was and does not possess as strong of an arm as Cam Newton did but is just as fast on his feet as he possesses the same 40-yard dash time and is just as strong of a player. Whatever gap there is between Newton and Hurts in terms of arm talent and height is made up for in that Hurts is a more consistently reliable smart accurate thrower of the football than Cam was. The Eagles, with Jalen Hurts as the starting quarterback started the 2022 season 13-1 which culminated in a very narrow Super Bowl loss where they were up by multiple possessions at halftime. The Eagles then proceeded to start the next season 10-1 before unfortunately collapsing to end the year. Those two seasons are akin to Cam Newton’s 15-1 season with the Carolina Panthers where they ended up losing in the Super Bowl to Denver. Jalen Hurts remains one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the game today and the Eagles are perennially a threat to win it all with him at helm.

10. Jordan Love

Jordan Love is Patrick Mahomes-esque and was even compared to Mahomes coming out of Utah State as he entered the draft. They both are roughly the same height and both possess cannons for arms and although both are high functioning inside the pocket, they are very good outside the pocket and play with a ton of flare and spontaneity outside the pocket as well. In his first season as starter the Packers nearly made the conference championship game and Love looked like an MVP caliber player for the second half of the season after tremendously struggling in the first half of the season. Although it does not feel as if Green Bay will make a deep playoff run this upcoming postseason it does feel as if they will consistently compete to win it all with Jordan Love at the helm for years to come.

11. Trevor Lawrence

Entering the draft Lawrence was heralded as a generational talent who will one day be recognized as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. He has been far from a bust thus far in the NFL but he has certainly not lived up to that billing as a quarterback and perhaps he is just the right coach away from reaching his full potential. From a pure talent standpoint in terms of size, mobility, and refined throwing ability, Lawrence ranks up there with any quarterback ever and perhaps he just needs to truly enter his prime and get the right coach to pair with him in order to reach his full potential.

12. Caleb Williams

Just like the quarterback ahead of him, Caleb Williams was also a number one overall pick who was generationally talented and although neither have been busts by any stretch of imagination. Both quarterbacks have been hit and miss and have not quite lived up to expectations thus far as perhaps the expectations that were heaped upon them were a bit too lofty. Caleb Williams just like Jordan Love was heralded as a Patrick Mahomes level player entering the draft as all three are roughly the same height and have very strong arms and play with a ton of flare and improvisation outside the pocket while still being very strong pocket passers. Caleb Williams feels as if he has the most juice out of the three as Jordan Love and Patrick Mahomes both run 40-yard dashes that are in the 4.7’s while Caleb runs a 40-yard dash that is in the 4.5’s. With Caleb having just as strong of an arm as either, being just as big as either, and being just as refined of a thrower as either coming out of college.

13. Kyler Murray

When he entered the draft very few quarterbacks ever and still very few quarterbacks now have ever had the combination of Kyler Murray’s arm strength and mobility. Questions have been asked about him as the Cardinals starting quarterback but I believe he is unequivocally the future long-term starter for Arizona at the position and the Cardinals can consistently contend to win it all with him at the helm. The Cardinals this year looked very strong at times vs the likes of the Bills, Lions, 49ers, and Rams with Murray at the helm. During the 2021 season the Cardinals looked like the best team in the NFL with him starting at quarterback for the first half of the season. If Murray gets adequate help around him the Cardinals will be an incredibly dangerous team for years to come.

Although the past three quarterbacks in Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray have not necessarily outperformed a few of the quarterbacks who are roughly their age/draft class in the below tier. I factor in to a certain extent that these three quarterbacks were number one overall picks who were heralded as generational talents whereas that is not the case for some of the below players. And for the most part, they have a larger sample size of play than some of the quarterbacks below who one could argue should be in this tier with them. Although none of the above three quarterbacks have been busts by any stretch of the imagination, none have lived up to their full potential as starting quarterbacks. Perhaps they are just the right coach and the right team away from doing so and perhaps expectations heaped onto them were a bit heavy.

Tier 3 – Solid but not spectacular starters for now

14. Drake Maye

Drake Maye has looked highly impressive as a rookie especially running the football as he has had the highest yards per attempt of any quarterback running the football this season out of the quarterbacks who have a large enough sample size of snaps. Drake Maye this season has also posted a higher passer rating than that of Dak Prescott and C.J Stroud. Maye has done all this despite New England’s offensive personnel being amongst the weakest in the NFL and them having a rookie defensive minded head coach who has just been fired.

15. Baker Mayfield

Mayfield, a former number one overall pick has led the Buccaneers to the playoffs in two straight postseasons. The team came up short to Detroit last season in the playoffs despite putting up a good fight. Perhaps Mayfield can take the next step higher in this ranking depending on how he and the Buccaneers perform this postseason. Mayfield was one of the highest graded quarterbacks this season but he still does not feel as if is a super-talent because he is still undersized and lacks mobility.

16. Bo Nix

Bo Nix had a pleasantly surprising rookie season for the Denver Broncos where he ranked up there with fellow rookie quarterbacks Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye despite not being taken as high as those three quarterbacks. Nix is one of the most decorated college quarterbacks ever during his time with Oregon and Auburn. The combination of Nix and Sean Payton will be reckoned with for years to come in the AFC.

17. C.J Stroud

After having a phenomenal rookie season C.J Stroud has regressed in his sophomore campaign but still remains a very strong option as the franchise quarterback for the Texans for years to come. I still felt as if the NFL in general was a bit too high on Stroud after his rookie season as the numbers he put up juxtaposed to the help he had around him were really good but not phenomenal. I still also feel that from an arm strength, size and mobility standpoint, Stroud is still pretty average. Stroud, however, remains one of the most accurate passers in the NFL and the Texans have won two consecutive AFC South divisions with him at the helm.

18. Sam Darnold

Darnold, a former top 3 pick, underwhelmed with the Jets and Panthers as he entered the NFL as perhaps those two moribund franchises underserved him as QB1. He then served as a backup quarterback for the 49ers and entered this year as a backup for the Vikings and assumed the starting role once 2024 first round pick J.J McCarthy went down with a season ending injury. Darnold up until the very weak performance in week 18 vs the Lions and his performance vs the Rams in the wild card round had a remarkable MVP caliber year. Questions are being asked as to who will be the future franchise quarterback for the Vikings, McCarthy or Darnold?

19. Tua Tagovailoa

In terms of accuracy and smarts Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ranks up there with any quarterback ever but ranks so low on this list because his lack of size, lack of arm strength, lack of durability, along with his inability to play in cold inclement weather consistently haunting him in the NFL. This is now the second season that has fallen apart for the Dolphins due to Tagovailoa’s inability to stay on the field despite the fact that Miami looks very strong with him healthy at the helm.

20. Derek Carr

Carr has been a solid NFL starting quarterback for years in this league but never quite gets the respect he deserves. Carr this season although missing several games due to injury finished as a top 10 rated passer, a higher rated passer than Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Jordan Love, and Jayden Daniels and a few other notable names. The Saints I think should stick with him as their starting quarterback but should certainly look into acquiring a younger quarterback to compete with him. As Carr is indeed getting up there in age and has always been a good to a really good but not a great quarterback.

21. Russell Wilson

The former Seahawks star quarterback had a resurgent year this season and although I do not think he is the player he once was he can certainly be that for periods of time. The Steelers have made the postseason and are capable of going on a postseason run if Russell Wilson is truly on top of his mark. It remains to be seen if he will continue to be the future of the Pittsburgh Steelers as he certainly warranted strong consideration for that to be case with the year he has had this season.

22. Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers had an under the radar year this year as the Jets were overlooked in large part because of how weak the team was this season. Rodgers with mediocre offensive personnel and having two separate defensive minded head coaches be at the helm for New York this season still put up respectable numbers as he turned 41 in December. I still feel as if Rodgers is capable of performing at an elite level in better circumstances.

23. Geno Smith

With a rookie defensive minded head coach Geno Smith did not have his greatest season but was still a solid producer has he has been for Seattle as their starting quarterback the past few seasons. Geno Smith is not a super talent by any stretch of the imagination but with the right coaching and players around him I certainly believe that he is capable of performing at an A level.

24. Dak Prescott

Prescott missed much of the 2024 season due to injury but the Cowboys did not seem to miss much of a beat with him out as QB1. Dak has always been a solid to a really good starting quarterback but I never confuse him with being a great one. The Cowboys can consistently be a playoff team with him at the helm and I do think that they can contend for a Super Bowl with him as the starter although that has yet to happen.

25. Brock Purdy

The 49ers came within a few mistakes on special teams from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy with Brock Purdy as their starting quarterback. However, this season was a bad regression for the 49ers with him as their starting quarterback as the 49ers went 6-11 and missed the postseason. It remains to be seen if general manager John Lynch will dole out the big dollars for Purdy as the 49ers future franchise quarterback. He is still far from a super talent and was the last player taken in the draft perhaps for a reason. Now Rams backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo strived in the Kyle Shanahan system with the all-world talent present on the 49ers roster. So, it certainly could be argued that many quarterbacks could be doing what Purdy has been doing for San Francisco as their starter.

A similar logic persists for this tier as it did with tier 2 but not tier 1. The order within this tier does not necessarily matter to such a large extent as many if not most of the quarterbacks in this tier are a product of their environment and there is not much of a difference in the level of play among them. Outside of the very top of the list which is led by Drake Maye who I think is potentially a budding star at the position but is not proven enough and the very bottom of this list which is 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy who may just be a high-end backup and who has yet to prove he can be a solid starting quarterback in less-than-ideal circumstances, the middle portion of this list can be put in many orders.

Tier 4 – Very Unproven and far too many question marks and it still remains to be seen if these quarterbacks are NFL starters

26. Michael Penix Jr

A top 10 pick in this past year’s draft who perhaps would’ve been drafted higher if it were not for some injury concerns. With a very limited sample size of NFL snaps where he was solid but not spectacular in the games where he played, I cannot rank Penix Jr any higher than tier 4. Penix is very talented however possessing a strong arm as a lefty and being very mobile running a sub 4.5 40-yard dash.

27. Anthony Richardson

Richardson is one of the most uniquely talented quarterbacks the game of football has ever seen. Anthony Richardson is a clone of Cam Newton as a quarterback talent as both are 6 foot 4 inches or 6 foot 5 inches, both have incredibly strong arms, both run 40-yard dashes that are in the realm of the 4.5 range, and above all else are both highly erratic inconsistent throwers of the football but have the capability to be highly effective and accurate throwing the football from time to time. Both perhaps had some maturity issues as well which one could certainly link to the lackluster throwing output from them two at times.

28. Bryce Young

The 2023 draft class was indeed an interesting one as C.J Stroud was a home run pick for the Texans despite having a sophomore slump season. Anthony Richardson was a unicorn type of talent who has shown flashes of brilliance but a very low floor. Bryce Young was the first overall pick in that draft class and was viewed as one of the biggest busts in NFL history when he was benched earlier this season. Although it would be a stretch for Carolina to commit to him as their long-term starter, he has shown some promise since coming back from being benched. The Panthers have been highly competitive with him as their starter going toe to toe with the likes of the Eagles and Chiefs this year.

29. Deshaun Watson

Watson, the once superstar quarterback for the Texans has had his career nosedive since all the legal issues have arisen with him and since signing a contract with the Browns. The Browns have still committed to him as their quarterback for next season despite coming off the torn achilles and him performing at an incredibly subpar level even when he was healthy. It remains to be seen if he can recapture the form he once had.

30. Will Levis

Levis, a former second round pick, has been respectable for Tennessee as their starting quarterback but the Titans will likely look to the 2025 draft for the future face of their franchise.

31. Raiders
32. Giants

Both the Raiders and Giants will likely look to find more viable quarterback options going forward.