The Green Bay Packers were one of the more interesting teams in professional football this past season as they hovered in and out of the Super Bowl Bubble for a large portion of the season. They put up a very good fight against the Philadelphia Eagles in their sole playoff game but eventually lost as the delineation between a team that was slightly outside the Super Bowl Bubble and a team that won the Super Bowl eventually manifested. Green Bay should however be optimistic about the future after this season even though they lost immediately in the playoffs. The Packers were making mistake after mistake and still were right in the game vs the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles on the road in the playoffs. The Packers heading into the 2025 season if they play their cards right this offseason will be one of the premier teams in the NFC next season led by star quarterback Jordan Love.
Beginning with the offense I have conducted a unit by unit analysis of the team. I have assigned each key player a grade that indicates how strong of players I deem them to be in totality. This grade is based upon yearly statistical output and yearly subjective grades that have been assigned to them by Pro Football Focus.
LT – Rasheed Walker – C
LG – Elgton Jenkins – B to B+
C – Josh Myers – C+, free agent
RG – Sean Rhyan – C
RT – Zach Tom – A-
(Reserve) – G – Jordan Morgan – (C) in limited snaps but missed most of rookie season due to injury, 2024 first round pick.
In totality the Packers offensive line is average to above average as two standouts are on the line combined with three average to mediocre caliber players. But its not as if the standouts on the line are amongst the truly elite offensive lineman of the NFL. 2024 first rounder Jordan Morgan missed most of the year due to injury and was not quite ready to flourish as a rookie.
A similar story persisted with the Green Bay skill players this past season where in totality it was an average unit led by a few standouts who were not truly elite by any stretch with the exception of running back Josh Jacobs.
WR1 – Jayden Reed – B to B+, 2023 second round pick
WR2 – Romeo Doubs – C+
WR3 – Christian Watson – B to B+
WR4 – Dontayvion Wicks – C+ to B-
WR5 – Bo Melton – C+ to B-, free agent
WR6 – Malik Heath – C
TE1 – Tucker Kraft – C
TE2 – Ben Sims – C
TE3 – John Fitzpatrick – 2 career rec, free agent
TE4 – Luke Musgrave – C+ to B-, 2023 second round pick
HB1 – Josh Jacobs – A
HB2 – Emanuel Wilson – B+ to A- in limited snaps, free agent
HB3 – Chris Brooks – B to B+ in limited snaps
HB4 – A.J Dillon – B+ to A-, free agent
HB5 – Marshawn Llyod – 2024 3rd round pick, has yet to log significant NFL snaps
On the offensive side of the ball the Packers were a run heavy team led by former Raiders running back Josh Jacobs as Green Bay ranked 5th in the NFL this past regular season in rushing yards per game and 6th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt. The running game as aforementioned was led by star back Josh Jacobs with number two and three halfbacks Emannuel Wilson and Chris Brooks complementing the ground game where need be. Backup quarterback Malik Willis is a much bigger threat with his legs than starter Jordan Love is and contributed to the running game in a large way when Love missed some time this past season. A point of emphasis this offseason with the over 60 million in cap space that the Packers possess should be to take the ground game from very good to great. The Packers ground game was top 5-6 in the league by the two biggest metrics but Green Bay should seek to make it a top 1-2 ground game in the league so the team can be in the conversation for being the best running team in the league. As this past season three of the teams who ran it at a definitively better rate were teams who had dual threat starting quarterbacks by the likes of Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the remaining team who ran it at a better rate than the Packers did this past season despite the fact that they did not have a dual threat starting quarterback. The Packers can take their ground game up a notch next season by upgrading the offensive line as Green Bay ran the ball so effectively despite their offensive line being graded as the 22nd best run blocking unit in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. With Green Bay’s cap space ranking in the top 10 the Packers should look to upgrade their line in a big way. Green Bay is also optimistic that 2024 first round pick Jordan Morgan will emerge as a star on the offensive front for the Packers going forward. Morgan missed most of his rookie season due to injury and was average in the time he did allocate snaps. In my personal assessment of the Packers starting five offensive line ,Green Bay had two starters that I evaluated to be in the B+ to A- range in starting right tackle Zach Tom and starting left guard Elgton Jenkins. The rest of the offensive line is comprised of average to mediocre starting caliber NFL players in the C to C+ range. If 2024 first round pick Jordan Morgan blossoms into the player the Packers hoped to get when they drafted him, then from an optimistic standpoint the Packers will have a third player in the B+ to A- range or better. Regardless, a point of emphasis this offseason should be to upgrade the offensive line with the large amount of cap space that the team possesses so the team can shift from a really good to a great running team to a truly elite running team. Starting center Josh Myers, who was in the remaining group with the three average starters is slated to be a free agent along with a few reserve offensive lineman. The Packers offensive line in totality was a good but not a great unit primarily because the starting five was comprised of three average starters and two very good but not great starters. The final metrics of the Packers offensive line were the following.
3rd in pass blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus
22nd in run blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus
11th in pass blocking efficiency according to Pro Football Focus
Allowed the 2nd fewest sacks
One should not put too much stock into the fact that Green Bay ranked 3rd and 2nd respectively in two of the primary pass protecting metrics (pass blocking grade and sacks allowed) as much of that is due to Jordan Love being mobile enough to avoid sacks and him getting rid of the ball quickly knowing a pass rush is looming with him being cognizant that he does not have great protection. Pass blocking efficiency which is a metric that measures pressures allowed by an offensive line with weighting towards sacks, i.e. the less sacks you give up the higher you rank in this metric. The fact that Green Bay only ranked 11th in that measure despite giving up the 2nd fewest sacks tells me that the Packers line gave up a lot of pressures but Jordan Love was mobile enough to avoid sacks and got rid of the ball quickly enough to avoid sacks. The Packers line by all the above metrics given context is a solid pass protecting unit and a below average run blocking unit. The Packers line was indeed exposed in their playoff loss to the Eagles who have a dominant defensive front as Green Bay’s line had a pass blocking efficiency metric of 76.4 in that game which would have ranked last in the NFL over the course of the regular season. As mentioned above, the Packers should look to upgrade the offensive line from an average unit to something more than that by adding a high-level player or two. The potential emergence of 2024 first round pick Jordan Morgan would certainly go a long way to the prowess of the line increasing. Addressing the skill positions further I can offer the following.
WR1 – Jayden Reed – B to B+, 2023 second round pick
WR2 – Romeo Doubs – C+
WR3 – Christian Watson – B to B+
WR4 – Dontayvion Wicks – C+ to B-
WR5 – Bo Melton – C+ to B-, free agent
WR6 – Malik Heath – C
TE1 – Tucker Kraft – C
TE2 – Ben Sims – C
TE3 – John Fitzpatrick – 2 career rec, free agent
TE4 – Luke Musgrave – C+ to B-, 2023 second round pick
As one can see from the above data the Packers receivers were pretty average and nothing to write home although they do have some standouts such as Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. The logic of Green Bay’s receiving core being average in general is also evidenced by the fact that Pro Football Focus graded the Green Bay Packers as being the 14th best receiving team in the NFL. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson are both very talented but perhaps pursuing the likes of a true superstar number one wideout such as a Chris Godwin or a Stefon Diggs who will both be free agents this offseason or perhaps a Tyreek Hill who also could be available this offseason as well would behoove the Packers. This would allow Reed and Watson to flourish as number two and three wideouts instead of being forced to presume a leading role where they are perhaps not as well suited. 2023 second round pick tight end Luke Musgrave missed the vast majority of the 2024 season due to injury after also struggling with the injury bug in his rookie campaign as well despite playing well as a rookie. The Packers are optimistic that he can be healthy heading into his third season as he did perform well as a rookie and the only reason, he did not warrant a higher grade than C+ to B- is due to his lack of snaps and the fact that his output as a rookie was not going to be as strong due to the lack of experience. If the Packers can acquire a true number one wide receiver heading into the 2025 campaign and if former high draft pick Luke Musgrave who has struggled with injuries can stay healthy and really come into his own. The Packers receiving core could easily rank among the better receiving cores in professional football next season. As if the two aforementioned items occur, they can easily take a leap from being graded as the 14th best receiving core to being graded as a top 5-10 receiving core. As the likes of Chris Godwin, Tyreek Hill, or Stefon Diggs could serve as a true number one wide out with Musgrave being a true number one tight end as well. With Christian Watson and Jaydeen Reed being among the better number two and three wideouts in the NFL. The Packers would also be deep at the wideout spot as Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs would provide Green Bay with some high end talent from the reserve wideout spots. These are all big ifs however as the team has not yet acquired a star number one wideout and it remains to be seen if tight end Luke Musgrave can stay consistently healthy and take his game up a notch as well from his rookie production. Addressing the running backs further I can offer the following.
HB1 – Josh Jacobs – A
HB2 – Emanuel Wilson – B+ to A- in limited snaps, free agent
HB3 – Chris Brooks – B to B+ in limited snaps
HB4 – A.J Dillon – B+ to A-, free agent
HB5 – Marshawn Llyod – 2024 3rd round pick, has yet to log significant NFL snaps
The running back unit of the Packers as mentioned much earlier was the strong suit of the Green Bay offense this past season led by halfback Josh Jacobs, Emmanuel Wilson, and Chris Brooks. Josh Jacobs, although he may not be quite as good as Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry in regards to being in the definitive discussion for being the best overall running back in the NFL, he is the next closest thing to those players at the position. Jacobs was graded as the third best running back in the NFL this season according to Pro Football Focus. Jacobs has also had two other seasons where he finished ranked as one of the top two graded running backs in the NFL and two other seasons where he finished in the top 15 in that same category according to Pro Football Focus. The Packers are deep at the running back spot as well as Emmanuel Wilson, Chris Brooks, and Marshawn Lloyd are three of the better reserve running backs. Wilson and Brooks both have averaged over 5.0 yards per attempt for their career albeit in limited snaps, compare that to the NFL average of 4.4. The Packers also have 2024 third rounder Marshawn Llyod and 2020 second rounder A.J Dillon present on the roster as well. Lloyd has yet to log any meaningful NFL snaps and Dillon missed the entirety of the 2024 season due to injury but was very effective in years prior but is now a free agent in addition to running back Emanuel Wilson also being a free agent. The Green Bay running back unit was one of the best in the NFL a season ago and regardless of whether or not they can retain a few of the free agents in the unit, they will likely be one of the best running back units heading into next season as well. Pro Football Focus graded the Packers as the number 4 running team in the NFL in the 2024 campaign and Green Bay should maintain a similar standing next year as well.
Quarterback Jordan Love in his second season as the starter for the Green Bay Packers had a good but not a great year as he struggled with consistency as he did in his first season as starter. Love finished the regular season as being the 12th highest rated passer in the NFL with Pro Football Focus grading him #16 in offense grade and #14 in passing grade among qualified starters. The Packers are optimistic that he can continue to make strides in year 3 and become more consistent as QB1 for Green Bay.
Overall, on the offensive side of the ball the Packers are marred with the good but not great effect. The Packers in the 2024 regular season finished 8th in points per game, 5th in yards per game, and Pro Football Focus graded them as the number 11 offense in the NFL. This good but not great effect is primarily due to the combination of offensive line play and receiving play that Green Bay has being average. Combined with quarterback Jordan Love being inconsistent and him not being quite a tier 1 caliber quarterback to the level of a Lamar Jackson, Burrow, Allen, or Mahomes, i.e. the good but not great effect continues to torment the Packers on the offensive end. With the over 60 million Green Bay has in cap space this offseason which ranks top 10 in the NFL in total cap space. The Packers should look to upgrade the offensive line and receiving core to allow Jordan Love to come into his own and to take the offensive production from good to great.
On the defensive side of the ball a similar story unfortunately persisted for Green Bay this past season where the team was consistently good to very good but not great. This logic is evidenced by their defensive statistical output and subjective grades that were assigned to them by Pro Football Focus both of which can be found below.
Defense grade according to Pro Football Focus – 13th
Run-defense grade according to Pro Football Focus – 24th
Tackling grade according to Pro Football Focus – 4th
Pass rush grade according to Pro Football Focus – 16th
Coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus – 5th
Sacks – 8th
Points allowed – 6th
Yards allowed – 6th
Passing yards allowed – 13th
Rushing yards allowed – 7th
In a similar analysis I conducted of previous players for Green Bay on the offensive side of the ball I also conducted for Green Bay on the defensive side of the ball as well.
Front Seven Starters
LDE – Van Ness – C+, 1st round 2023
LDT – Kenny Clark – B+
RDT – Wyatt – B to B+
RDE – Gary – B+
WLB – Quay Walker – C
MLB – Edgerrin Cooper – B to B-, 2nd rounder 2024
SLB – McDuffie – C, free agent
Notable Front Seven Reserves
ED – Brenton Cox Jr – B in very limited snaps
DL – T.J Slaton – C to C+, free agent
LB – Eric Wilson – C+, free agent
LB – Tyron Hopper – 2024 3rd round pick, 18 career snaps
DL – Karl Brooks – B
ED – Mosby – B to B+ in very limited snaps, free agent
Secondary Starters
CB1 – Jaire Alexander – A-
SS – Evan Williams – B+ to A-
FS – Xavier McKinney – B+ to A-
CB2 – Keisean Nixon – C+ to B-
NB1 – Javon Bullard – C, 2nd round 2024
Notable Secondary Reserves
CB – Eric Stokes – C+, 1st round 2021, free agent
As one can see from the above data the Packers secondary was the anchor of the defense as the Packers were graded as the number five coverage team in the NFL a season ago. Perhaps the secondary can take the next step forward if 2024 second rounder Javon Bullard comes into his own in year 2. The front seven of the Green Bay Packers suffers from the good but not great syndrome that negatively affected the team this past season. Green Bay, although they have a solid starting front seven lacks the star-power in the unit as they have no players who I graded to be A players. All the major key front seven statistics back the logic that they are a good but not a great team upfront defensively. With Green Bay ranking 8th in the NFL heading into this offseason in terms of available cap space they should use much of those assets to add star power to the front seven of their defense. Adding star power to their front seven and perhaps adding another impact player to the back end of their defense can take their good but not great defense which was graded as #13 in the NFL and allowed the 6th fewest points in the league to being an elite one.
Overall, Green Bay, as alluded to several times previously, suffers from the good but not great syndrome. Jordan Love in two years as the Packer starter has proven to be a good to a very good but not a truly great quarterback as of yet. The Packers personnel and production on both sides of the ball has proven to be very good but not great. Head coach Matt Lafleur is smart and above average, but I never confuse him with the Sean McVay’s or Andy Reid’s of the world. It remains to be seen if Green Bay can take the next step next year by upgrading their roster with the over 60 million in cap space that they possess. The offensive line, defensive front, and receiving core could all use some additions to propel Green Bay from being a very good playoff team to a great Super Bowl contending team.
