1.Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off of one of the greatest seasons and Super Bowls a team has ever had and are in the #1 spot while being the favorites to win next year’s Super Bowl and rightfully so. The team has lost some key defensive pieces along with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and repeating as Super Bowl champions is very hard to come by. The NFC will likely get tougher next year as the Lions will be more seasoned and healthy. The Commanders, Bears, and Falcons along with some others could all emerge as dangerous teams in the NFC as well.
2.Lions
The Lions were the best regular season team last season as they were tied for the NFL’s best record with the Chiefs. However, the Chiefs struggled to win most of their games while the Lions won many of their games by wide margins. Injuries should never be an excuse for losing but one cannot deny the crippling affect they can have on a team. The Lions were the most injured team in the NFL last season with almost all the injuries being on defense. When healthy on defense they were a top 5 defense in the NFL that Pro Football Focus even graded as the best defense in the NFL early in the year. On offense they accounted for the 4th most offensive touchdowns in NFL history last season. The defensive injuries eventually caught up with them in the postseason as they allowed 45 points in their playoff loss to the Commanders. Detroit, having a -5-turnover differential in that contest also contributed to the poor outcome. They will almost certainly stay healthier next season but overcoming the loss of both coordinators who departed to become head coaches will be a tough pill to swallow. One could certainly make a very strong argument that the Lions should be in the top spot but I give the Eagles the edge for the following reasons. The Eagles won the Super Bowl last season while Detroit failed to even win a playoff game and the Lions have to deal with losing both coordinators as well.
3.Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs despite getting blown out in the Super Bowl deserve to be ranked this high despite how putrid they looked in that loss. They are still the dynasty of the NFL winning 3 of the past 6 Super Bowls including winning the AFC in 5 of those 6 years. Based on that second fact they deserve to be ranked ahead of anyone in the AFC as of now. However, the past two seasons they have consistently struggled on the offensive side of the ball as for two seasons in a row now they have been closer to average on the offensive end. The struggles on the offensive end are alarming because Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid rank among the greatest offensive head coach and quarterback combinations in NFL history. In the earlier era of this Chiefs team led by Mahomes/Reid they were explosive offensively but were prone to struggle defensively from time to time. Now the opposite is the case as for two years in a row now they have been an elite defensive team who has a lower offensive ceiling. If Kansas City can return to the form they had offensively in previous seasons while maintaining their level of defensive play from the past two seasons then they will be a tough team to deal with who could certainly win it all again. They still are to be trusted in close games more than anyone as they went 11-0 in one possession games last season and have won several close postseason games throughout the years. They also are to be trusted in the postseason more than anyone as Mahomes/Reid have won three Super Bowls while no other current head coach + QB combination has won more than one. They remain at #3 and not higher because based on last season the Eagles and Lions have shown they can be elite on both ends while the Chiefs were not close to elite offensively last season and for the past two seasons now.
4.Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson have been consistently the most dominant regular season team in the league with him healthy at the helm. They, however, have consistently faltered come playoff time despite showing improvements in the past two seasons. Lamar Jackson was notorious for being a choker in the postseason but the last two seasons he has turned it around. Questions are still to be asked of him in the playoffs, however, as his play was not phenomenal in their past two postseason losses although he certainly did not choke in either as he was prone to do in years past. Even with Lamar Jackson being better in the postseason the past couple of years the team around him as faltered come playoff time. In the 2023-24 season the Ravens made several crucial mistakes in a conference title game loss to the Chiefs. This past postseason a similar outcome also occurred as the team made crucial errors around Lamar Jackson in their playoff loss to the Bills. Errors in the past two postseason losses that were made by the team around Lamar Jackson include penalties, dropped passes, getting away from their offensive identity, and turnovers. As aforementioned, the Ravens have consistently been the most dominant regular season team in the NFL with Lamar Jackson at the helm. If they can put it all together in the postseason it feels as if it is only a matter of time before they win it all. They remain at 4 at not higher because although they are elite on both sides of the ball like the first two teams on this list are. They cannot be trusted in the playoffs as much as the first two teams. Kansas City has a lower ceiling than Baltimore but the Chiefs are to be trusted more than anyone in the postseason where the Ravens as of now are to be trusted in the postseason less than any contending team. The Chiefs ceiling is not too far off from the Ravens’ ceiling as well as the Chiefs did go 15-2 last year in the regular season compared to the Ravens’ 12-5 mark. Kansas City also beat the Ravens head-to-head in the regular season last year and in their last playoff meeting two seasons ago.
5.Bills
Bills head coach Sean McDermott stated that it is only a matter of when not if the Bills win the Super Bowl with Josh Allen. The Chiefs are still the dynasty of the NFL and the Bills with Allen are 4-1 against in them the regular season but 0-4 against them in the postseason. The past three postseason losses have been essentially coin flips as each of those games could have gone either way. A similar narrative persisted in last season’s playoff loss to the Chiefs where if 1-2 small things went differently the Bills could have certainly come out on top. Last season the Bills were the #2 scoring offense in the NFL but struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The team ranked as the #11 scoring defense in the NFL with Pro Football Focus grading them as the #27 defense in the league. The Bills were also the only team in the NFL to allow 30 points to the Chiefs in regulation in their playoff loss to Kansas City. Similar to the Chiefs being an elite defensive team who struggled offensively this past season despite having an offensive minded head coach and being consistently explosive offensively in years past, a similar story persisted for the Bills. The Bills were an explosive offensive team this past season who struggled defensively despite having a defensive minded head coach and being elite defensively in years past. Similar to the Chiefs they will need to maintain their elite level of play on the side of the ball which flourished this past season. While getting the opposite side of the ball, which was in very good shape in previous years with that side of the ball being the head coach’s specialty, back into the form it was in in previous seasons. I liken the Bills’ chances of fixing their defense more-so than the Chiefs fixing their offense, however for the following reasons. The Chiefs do not have a coordinator on the offensive end going into their second full season on the job whereas the Bills do. The Bills defensive coordinator is going into his second full season in the position and the team can expect to improve defensively as a result. It has also been two seasons in a row now that the Chiefs have struggled offensively while the Bills, the previous three seasons, ranked in the top 5 in terms of points allowed. The Bills remain at #5 and not higher because they still cannot be trusted to be elite on both side of the ball like the Eagles, Lions, and Ravens are to be trusted in that regard. They also cannot be trusted in the postseason like the Chiefs given the fact that the Chiefs have 3 Super Bowls compared to the Bills 0 Super Bowls along with Kansas City’s 4-0 record against Buffalo in the postseason with Allen and Mahomes being on either team. In the AFC alone they do not have Baltimore’s ceiling as a team and cannot be trusted in the playoffs like the Chiefs at this point in time. Which is why they remain #3 in the AFC behind those two teams. However, if the Bills can be just as good if not better offensively next season while returning to being an elite defensive team, I could certainly see them winning the conference/Super Bowl.
6.Chargers
The first three AFC teams on this list in the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills based upon last season and based on previous seasons as well feel like the three established contenders in the AFC. The Los Angeles Chargers with Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert feel like the biggest team in the AFC that is on track to join that group while not being in that group previously. Jim Harbaugh, despite not winning a Super Bowl as of yet, is still amongst the most impactful and accomplished coaches in football history. One could make a very strong argument that Jim Harbaugh has more impact on winning games than any head football coach ever. He is the only coach in NFL history who has won coach of the year honors on both the collegiate and professional levels as well. Harbaugh’s presence for the Chargers is the biggest reason why they rank so high on this list despite not even winning a playoff game last season. In the first season with Jim Harbaugh and quarterback Justin Herbert the Chargers went from 5-12 the previous season to 11-6 including a postseason appearance. Justin Herbert is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the game today but the criticisms of him are indeed valid as in 5 seasons in the NFL he has yet to even win a postseason game. That trend, especially with Harbaugh as his coach, almost seems as if it will inevitably end at some point, however. The Chargers a season ago felt like a lesser version of the Chiefs where both teams had superstar head coaches with electric quarterback talents who resemble one another as well in their appearance and playing style. Both teams had a lower offensive ceiling despite the rockstar offensive minded head coaches and the remarkable quarterback talents, while both teams were elite defensively. The Chiefs, however, went 15-2 sweeping the Chargers in division while making the Super Bowl. Whereas the Los Angeles Chargers lost twice to the Chiefs and failed to even win a postseason game, going 11-6 in the regular season. The sky is the limit for the Chargers heading into next season as they had the NFL’s best scoring defense last season which will likely be just as good if not better next season. As the Chargers on offense will be better and will put the defense in better spots and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter goes into year 2 with the franchise along with Jim Harbaugh going into year 2 with the franchise as well. The Chargers will have an elite defense, an elite quarterback, and perhaps the premier head coach in the NFL next season. Despite all that they remain this low on this list because Harbaugh/Herbert have yet to even win a playoff game together with Herbert having never won a playoff game in his career either. Additionally, one still certainly questions the offensive personnel the Chargers have as well as they struggled offensively a season ago despite the presence of Harbaugh and Herbert. However, they have certainly gotten better in that regard with the offseason additions of Najee Harris, Mekhi Becton, and Mike Williams.
7.Bengals
The Bengals were in that elite AFC title contending group with the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills in years past but fell out of that group this past season. Just like the Los Angles Chargers are seeking to join that group for the first time, the Cincinnati Bengals are seeking to rejoin that group. The Bengals, in my eyes, have the 2nd best quarterback in the game today to Patrick Mahomes in the name of Joe Burrow, when he is healthy. If Burrow had stayed healthier thus far in his NFL career and/or had more support around him, one could certainly argue for him to be in that #1 spot as well. The Bengals narrowly missed the postseason last year despite Burrow throwing for the most yards and touchdowns out of all quarterbacks last season. Cincinnati consistently failed to close out games where they had the other team beaten and as usual in the Burrow era got off to a rocky start. In the first two seasons with a healthy Burrow the Bengals came up one possession short of winning a Super Bowl and making another one. Things are still looking up for the franchise next season as in 2 of 3 seasons with a healthy Burrow they are within striking distance of winning it all. Even last year when they missed the playoffs, they looked highly impressive in the regular season. They had the eventual AFC Champion Chiefs beaten, needing to stop Kansas City from converting a 4th and 16 in order to clinch the win but failed to do so. The Baltimore Ravens are consistently the most dominant regular season team with Lamar Jackson and the Bengals had them beaten twice last year, being up by double digits in the 2nd half of both contests but failing to close out either game. The lack of consistency on the defensive end also really cost the team a season ago as they hemorrhaged points in losses to the Ravens twice, Commanders, Chargers, Steelers, and Eagles. They have since fired their defensive coordinator and it remains to be seen how much they will improve next season on that side of the ball. Most of the time with a healthy Burrow the Bengals are in the conference title or Super Bowl. If they had just closed out games at even a below average rate last season, they would have made the postseason and I easily could have seen them in the conference title again if they did make the playoffs. Next season I think they will indeed make the playoffs again and I think they will certainly be one of the primary contenders to reach the Super Bowl coming out of the AFC. As the Bengals with Joe Burrow are currently the only AFC team to have beaten the Chiefs with Mahomes in the playoffs.
8.Rams
The Los Angeles Rams have struggled to fully re-establish themselves as contenders in the NFL since winning the Super Bowl in the 2021 season. The year following their Super Bowl triumph they had the worst season a defending champion has ever had going 5-12. The following season they started off 3-6 but eventually pulled it together, finishing 7-1 before suffering a 1-point loss in the playoffs to the Lions. This past season they again got off to a nightmare start to the season starting off 1-4 but again pulled it together finishing 9-3 before suffering a narrow one possession loss in the postseason to the eventual champion Eagles. The Rams were the only team in the NFL this past season to come within striking distance of beating the eventual champion Eagles in the playoffs as well. As Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had the ball in his hands deep into Eagles’ territory with a chance to take the lead as the clock was winding down. Many regard head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford to be the 2nd best head coach and quarterback combination in the league today to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. I tend to mostly agree with that sentiment as of now although the Ravens and Chargers could make strong arguments in that regard as well. The Eagles and Lions were #1 and #2 on this list and the Rams came up one possession short to each team the past two postseasons. Despite the presence of Stafford and McVay along with the Rams being the only team to give the eventual champions any trouble in the playoffs, they remain this low for the following reasons. They consistently get off to horrid starts to the season and starting off 3-6 and 1-4 in consecutive seasons is not the sign of a Super Bowl caliber team. The Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars, who finished with two of the worst records in the NFL this past season, also came up one possession short to the Eagles this past season just like the Rams did in the playoffs. Also, it’s not as if the Rams’ one possession loss to Philadelphia was a back-and-forth game that just ended up going the Eagles’ way. As the only lead the Rams held the whole game was when it was 7-6 after the teams traded opening touchdown drives but the Eagles missed an extra point. Points accumulated/allowed and yards accumulated/allowed are two of the biggest barometers for measuring success on either side of the ball. The Rams ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in 3 of the 4 categories while only ranking 15th out of 32 in the remaining category they did not rank below average in. It feels as if the Lions and Eagles are in an elite group who are capable of winning the conference that the remainder of the conference is not in as of now, but the Rams are the defacto closest team to them as of now. It also feels if teams 3-7 comprise the AFC bubble to win the conference while the Rams are not in the conference winning bubble in the NFC which is another reason they remain at 8 below teams 3-7, who feel as if they are in their conference’s Super Bowl bubble.
9.Commanders
Jayden Daniels is one of the most electric quarterback talents I have ever seen and him winning a Super Bowl at some point almost feels inevitable. With him as a rookie the team made the conference title game but suffered a blowout loss to the eventual champion Eagles. Washington was explosive offensively last season but was not quite as explosive as the likes of Buffalo, Baltimore, and Detroit. The Commanders were a top 5-10 offense a season ago but not a top 5 or a top 3 one like the aforementioned teams were. Perhaps as Jayden Daniels goes into year 2 in the league with the Commanders upgrading their offensive personnel, they can take the next step offensively. The upgrades Washington made on the offensive side of the ball are primarily the additions of former pro bowlers Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil at wide receiver and left tackle. With Daniels going into year 2 in the NFL as well as head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury going into year 2 with the Washington franchise with him, there is no reason the Commanders cannot be among the premier offensive teams next season. The defensive side of the ball was the bigger concern for the Commanders a season ago as the team ranked below average in all the major indicators of defensive play this past season. In their postseason loss to the Eagles the team hemorrhaged over 50 points to the eventual champions. The team was not atrocious defensively however as they ranked just slightly below average in terms of both yards and points allowed in the regular season. Defensive minded head coach Dan Quinn has his work cut out for him as the team will need to take a big step forward next season on the defensive end if they plan to win the conference. The Lions and Eagles when healthy on the defensive side of the ball were two of the premier defenses in the league a season ago with Washington not being close to them in that regard. In a game of quarterbacks, the Commanders in my estimation as of now have the strongest quarterback in the NFC. The roster was amongst the weaker rosters in the league a season ago as the team had the #2 overall pick in the previous draft for a reason. Although the additions of Tunsil and Samuel make the roster better, they still have an average at best caliber roster surrounding their star QB. I certainly like them to make the playoffs again and even potentially make some noise in the postseason but it feels as if they will eventually come up short in postseason play because of the lack of firepower on their roster surrounding Daniels. Head coach Dan Quinn is one of the smartest defensive minds in the league as he was the defensive coordinator for one of the greatest defenses of all time with the Seahawks. As a head coach he came dangerously close to winning a Super Bowl as his Atlanta Falcons were up 28-3 in one on the Patriots as well. The caliber of head coach he is still remains a question mark however as in his previous tenure with the Falcons his defenses consistently struggled. With the Falcons as a defensive minded head coach his defense ranked in the bottom half of the league in regards to points allowed in 4 of his 6 seasons. In the year the Falcons made the Super Bowl with him as the head coach, his defense ranked 27th in the league in terms of points allowed as well. The Commanders have a superstar quarterback who, when healthy, is as good as any quarterback in the sport. But just like the Bengals you question essentially everything outside the skill position players and the starting quarterbacks of the team. As both teams have very strong skill position players and QBs who I think will rank up there with anyone at the position ever eventually. But you question the offensive lines, the defenses, and the coaching staffs of both teams. They remain at #9 because they do not feel as if they are in the Super Bowl bubble in their conference like teams 1-7 are. They remain below the Rams primarily because the Rams narrowly lost in the playoffs to the eventual champions while Washington got destroyed by them.
10.49ers
The San Francisco 49ers the past six seasons with Kyle Shanahan as the head coach have been in the conference title or Super Bowl four times but have failed to ever win it all. In the two seasons they did not make the conference title or Super Bowl they failed to even make the postseason however. One of those two seasons was unfortunately this past season as the team went 6-11. Many are stating that this era of the 49ers where they are consistently dominant with Kyle Shanahan has come to an end and they indeed missed their chance to win it all. However, all is not lost as they had a similar season in the 2020 campaign where following a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs the team went 6-10 and missed the playoffs. Just like this past season they went 6-11 coming off a Super Bowl loss to Kansas City. After the aforementioned 6-10 season coming off a Super Bowl loss the team proceeded to make the conference title or Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons after. In both seasons of this era when the team did not qualify for the playoffs, injuries unfortunately crippled the team. In the 6-10 season starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a season ending injury and this past season when the team went 6-11, they were arguably the most injured offensive team in the NFL. Taking a deeper look at this past season the team was in the same offensive ballpark as they were in years past with Shanahan at the helm. Despite being arguably, the most injured offensive team in the NFL, Pro Football Focus still graded them as the #4 offense in professional football. There is no reason that with healthier personnel on offense that the 49ers next season cannot be as good on the offensive end as they have been in years past where they consistently found themselves within striking distance of Super Bowls with Kyle Shanahan as the head coach. The defensive side of the ball was far more concerning for San Francisco this past season as the team ranked 29th in points allowed which is the polar opposite of the elite form they had in previous years where they consistently came close to winning it all. The defensive coordinator position was perhaps the biggest reason why as the newly appointed and now fired defensive coordinator from this past season was not cut out for the job. The team has since re-hired former defensive coordinator Robert Saleh who the team made multiple conference titles and a Super Bowl with. With him coordinating the defense the team will likely be as well coached on the defensive end as they were in years past. Despite the 6-11 season that they are coming off, the 49ers are in the top 10 for the following reasons. Offensively the 49ers project to be just as good as they were in years past next season as they were graded #4 in terms of offense grade this past season despite being arguably the most injured offense in the NFL. On the defensive side of things, they project to be as well coached as they were in years past with Robert Saleh being re-hired as the defensive coordinator. This offseason cycle thus far the team has let go of several key defensive pieces such as Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward, and Dre Greenlaw. The fact that as of now their personnel on defense is not as good as it was in years past and they are coming off a 6-11 season is why they are #10 and not #2/#3.
11.Falcons
On paper, as of now the Falcons are the only team in the NFL that has offensive personnel and a quarterback talent on the level of Philadelphia and Detroit who are 1 and 2 on this list. The teams who have the three best offensive personnel groupings in the NFL are the Lions, Eagles, and Falcons. The Lions and the Eagles also have tier 2 level talents at the quarterback position which is what Atlanta first round pick quarterback Michael Penix Jr projects to be as well. The reason the Falcons remain lower on this list despite that is because of how unproven they are. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr has had only three career starts and looked pretty meager in them. It still remains to be seen if head coach Raheem Morris is the right fit for the job as well. On the defensive side of the ball the Eagles and Lions, when healthy were two of the premier defensive teams in the NFL last year. Whereas the Falcons were in the average to mediocre range defensively a season ago. They are totally unproven but, in my estimation, on paper, they are the only team in the NFL with offensive personnel and a quarterback talent on the level of teams #1 and #2 on this list. I could certainly see them climbing into the top 10 and maybe eventually into the top 5 of this ranking as the season progresses and they prove their prowess on the field more. I could certainly see them being the primary team who threatens Philadelphia and Detroit in the NFC as well. But they remain outside the top 10 because of how unproven they are.
12.Bears
The Chicago Bears are in a similar boat to the Atlanta Falcons where on paper they project to be as good as anyone. They have a young quarterback who was drafted very highly in last year’s draft. They have offensive personnel that is not quite as good as the Falcons but is not too far off on paper at least. Chicago is however the more proven team on the defensive side of the ball as they were a borderline top 10 unit a season ago. Caleb Williams is also more proven than Penix Jr and was heralded as a more talented prospect as well. The reason the Bears remain below Atlanta is because Philadelphia and Detroit were the two best teams a season ago and remain #1 and #2 on this list with the Falcons resembling their formula more-so than the Bears. With that formula being a tier 2 level quarterback paired with offensive personnel that is in the definitive discussion for being the best in the NFL. The Bears offensive personnel is very good on paper but the Falcons offensive personnel is elite on paper and projects to be as good as any team’s offensive personnel on paper. The Bears were better defensively a season ago but the Falcons with a defensive minded head coach going into year 2 on the job can be just as good. Atlanta gets to play in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL and easily the weakest in the NFC. Whereas the Bears have to play in likely the toughest division in the NFL and definitively the toughest division in the NFC. The Bears also have a rookie head coach who there will certainly be a learning curve with. Whereas although Raheem Morris is not definitively the right man for the job, he has several years of experience as an NFL head coach. I could still certainly see the Bears being the biggest threat to the Eagles and Lions in the NFC next season. As Caleb Williams was the number one pick for a reason and had a respectable rookie season. New head coach, Ben Johnson, is regarded as one of the premier young offensive minds in the NFL. The roster also has no definitive holes/weaknesses although it is perhaps not elite anywhere.
13.Broncos
Just like the Falcons are the only team who has offensive personnel and a quarterback talent on the level of teams 1 and 2 on this list. The Denver Broncos are the only team who has a defense, an offensive line, a head coach, and a quarterback talent on the level of teams 1 and 2 on this list. The Broncos are, however, more proven than the Falcons and Bears as the team with Bo Nix made the postseason last year despite a quick exit. They remain lower on this list because in an offense league the team’s skill position players rank among the weakest in the NFL and Nix, although talented, is still closer to average as a starting quarterback in the NFL as of now. The combination of the average caliber QB play with the lackluster skill players unfortunately showed in their postseason loss to the Bills where they scored only 7 points. If Nix can take a big step forward in year 2 and if the team can acquire additional skill position players who can have an impact, then Denver can certainly climb this ranking.
14.Colts
Anthony Richardson is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks I have ever seen and if he can develop in the right way the Colts will be set as a franchise. The Colts have a very strong roster that has no definitive holes on it and outside of the Eagles and Lions is pretty much as good as any roster in the NFL. The AFC south is still one of the weakest if not the weakest division in professional football. Last season, in Richardson’s first full season as starter the Colts nearly made the postseason despite him playing at a very poor level in regards to throwing the football. Out of 44 quarterbacks with qualified snaps, including backups, Richardson ranked last in terms of passer rating by a margin. Despite Richardson passing the ball at such a poor level with him even being benched for a portion of time, the team still nearly made the playoffs. Going into year 2 if he can be just serviceable as a passer with Daniel Jones now on his tail for the starting job, the Colts will be in position to win a very weak AFC south. They rank 14th out of my 14 projected playoff teams because Richardson in still only his 2nd year as starter will still likely be too erratic in terms of throwing the football for the Colts to make noise in the playoffs. But in the AFC south I think they have a quarterback as talented as any in the division with easily the best roster in the division as well.
15.Vikings
The Vikings went 14-3 a season ago but had a quick playoff exit to the hands of the Los Angeles Rams. However, the 14-3 mark may have been a bit misleading as they were maybe closer to a 11-6 or 10-7 caliber team given their quick three possession playoff exit. Heading into next season where ever since the playoffs have been expanded to 14 teams there have been 6 new playoff teams a year, the Vikings are a prime candidate to be one of the likely around 6 departed teams from the previous postseason. J.J McCarthy is no better than Sam Darnold as of now in my estimation and in his first season starting in the NFL, I could certainly see there being some growing pains playing in the toughest division in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball the Vikings had pretty average personnel but were exceptionally coached by Brian Flores but it feels as if the defense has a ceiling to it as well because of the relative lack of talent. The Vikings were an 11-6 caliber team disguised as a 14-3 team last season, and with McCarthy in his first season as starter playing in the toughest division in the NFL, I could see them taking a step back to a 9-8 type of team. But given how effective they were at times a season ago as going 14-3 is still not easy to come by, they remain the first team out of my playoff bubble.
16.Buccaneers
Similar logic applies to the Buccaneers as it did for the Vikings. In a league where ever since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams there have been six new playoff teams every year, the Bucs are also a prime candidate to leave last year’s playoff field. For a third straight season now, the team has to adjust to having a new offensive coordinator. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is effective and talented but for much of his career he was a backup and perhaps without elite offensive coaching he is closer to average at quarterback. Finding a third consecutive offensive coordinator who can give the Bucs elite coaching on the offensive side will be a struggle. Todd Bowles is not a bum as a head coach but the jury remains out on him as an NFL head coach. The Atlanta Falcons are a juggernaut on paper and without Michael Penix Jr and with an over the hill Kirk Cousins, they still almost won the division over Tampa Bay last season. If Penix Jr comes into his own the Falcons are undeniably the better team in my estimation. The Bucs will still be dangerous next season as Mayfield is still vey talented and the combination of Evans/Godwin at wide out ranks up there with anyone in the league.
17.Packers
The Packers in the Jordan Love era have been the epitome of good to very good as a team but not great. They also are a prime candidate to leave last years playoff field given their good but not great ceiling and the brutal division they play in. In their division alone I like the Vikings and Lions more as those two teams went 4-0 against Green Bay in division last season. On paper I like the Chicago Bears more as well and they even went 1-1 in division vs Green Bay a season ago despite Caleb Williams being a rookie and the Bears being poorly coached. Green Bay at best is the 3rd best team in their division as of now and in a league where there are likely going to be six new playoff teams, they also remain a prime candidate to exit last year’s playoff field. Jordan Love and Matt Lafleur are still very formidable as an offensive head coach and QB combination, however. The roster is still solid but not spectacular as well.
18.Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals have one of the most electric quarterback talents I have ever seen in the name of Kyler Murray. They were an effective team a season ago but ultimately ended up missing the postseason despite being in the hunt until the very end. They were graded as the 6th best offense in the league a season ago by Pro Football Focus but struggled defensively. To address the defense, they have added two-star defensive lineman in Josh Sweat and Calais Campbell. As of now however they remain outside the playoff bubble because they feel as if they are just Kyler Murray with 5-6 very good players surrounding him and the remainder of the roster being mediocre. They also have a young unproven defensive minded head coach and Kyler Murray is remarkably talented but no one ranks him in that same group with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson as of now including myself. The sky is the limit for this team as they looked very strong a season ago against stout competition such as the Lions, Bills, and Rams. Perhaps with Murray and head coach Jonathan Gannon going into their second full season together they can take a big step forward. But as of now they remain outside the playoff picture although that could certainly change eventually.
19.Texans
The Houston Texans have looked stout in the first two seasons of the C.J Stroud/DeMeco Ryans era making the divisional round in each of the first two seasons. I question the direction of the franchise however as they made some questionable moves this offseason in trading star left tackle Laremy Tunsil and not retaining star wide out Stefon Diggs. Their defense has maybe the highest ceiling of any defense in the NFL forcing Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert to each have amongst their career worst games a season ago. Their defense lacks consistency however as they ranked only 14th in points per game allowed last season despite the explosive ceiling. The league is transitioning to becoming more of an offensive oriented league and I question Houston on that side of the ball. Their offensive line was very weak a season ago and they now have traded their top offensive lineman at the most important position of left tackle. Their offensive line will unequivocally be one of the weakest lines in the NFL next season. The skill position players with the departure of Stefon Diggs now are good if not very good but nothing special as well. Similar logic applies to quarterback C.J Stroud where he is good if not very good but nothing special. The lack of consistency on the defensive end and the major question marks on the offensive side of the ball also make Houston a prime candidate to be one of the around six playoff teams from a season ago who will likely depart the playoff picture next year. Their high-end capabilities on the defensive side of the ball along with Stroud still being very talented will still make them a tough team to deal with, however. But it feels as if with a quarterback who is closer to average with a weak offensive line as well, that the team has a ceiling to them.
20.Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars in the Trevor Lawrence era have been a roller coaster having gone through two big name coaches in Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson. Trevor Lawrence, who was heralded as a generational talent, has certainly not been a bust thus far but has not lived up to expectations either. He has struggled with injuries thus far in his career and ostensibly has not gotten the right coach either. Lawrence is now entering his prime and hopefully will stay healthier with a new young smart offensive-minded head coach in Liam Coen as well. If Coen is indeed the next Kevin O’Connell, Sean McVay, or Kyle Shanahan like I think he could be and if Lawrence is indeed a generational type of quarterback talent, then the Jaguars will be in very good shape going forward. Next season they remain at 20 and not higher because they still went 4-13 a season ago and Coen is totally unproven as a head coach. The roster is very questionable as well as this roster was mostly constructed by now fired general manager Trent Baalke. If Lawrence and Coen are the real deal then the Jaguars will be a tough team to deal with this upcoming season but will still remain a year or two away from being in peak form with those two leading the way. Despite the 4-13 record the Jaguars looked tough a season ago losing by one possession to the eventual champion Eagles. They also lost by one possession to 14-win Minnesota and suffered three separate one possession losses to playoff teams Green Bay and Houston.
21.Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins in the Mike McDaniel/Tua Tagovailoa era have been dangerous but all too flawed unfortunately. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa consistently fails to stay on the field and consistently cannot perform in the cold weather. Those two concerns with Tua have led to the Dolphins season ending in the first three years with him as the starter. The team with him at the helm has looked very dangerous, however. In the 2023 season the Ravens with Lamar Jackson were dominating the league destroying opponents from the opening whistle. But the Dolphins went into Baltimore and led for most of the first half dictating against the Ravens on the road. Before the Dolphins made some crucial errors which led to the game getting out of hand. Last season the Dolphins play mirrored that of amongst the premier teams in the NFL. The Super Bowl champion Eagles played the Rams in the playoffs and led for almost the whole game and won by one possession. The Dolphins played the Rams in the regular season and led the whole game and ended up winning by a singular possession as well. The Bills nearly made the Super Bowl and the Dolphins lost a close fought back and forth game by a field goal to them on the road. The Lions who were the #1 seed in the NFC led the whole game vs the Cardinals and won by one possession. The Dolphins also led the whole game vs Arizona before unfortunately failing to close it out at the end. The Dolphins collection of skill position players ranks up there with any NFL team and Tua in terms of accuracy and smarts ranks up there with any NFL QB. They certainly could be very dangerous next season but given Tua’s lack of durability and his lack of ability to play in cold weather, they remain at #21. They also remain at #21 because last season they lost to teams #17-#19 with a healthy Tua and outside of the loss to Green Bay, all those losses were in warm weather as well. With all those three teams not having concerns with regards to QB durability and ability to perform in cold weather like Miami does. Miami also should have lost at home to the #20 team on this list and the same can be said for Trevor Lawrence at quarterback not having nearly as much concerns with regards to durability and performance in cold weather. The Dolphins could certainly be higher than this but Tua’s injury history and poor track record in cold weather keeps them lower on this list.
22.Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders are one of the most underrated teams heading into next season with new quarterback Geno Smith and new head coach Pete Carroll. The pairing will seek to turn around a deadbeat Raiders culture where the franchise has not won a playoff game in over two decades. If the team can just acquire another capable receiver in the draft or have a young player step up, then their offensive personnel would rank up there with almost any team in the NFL if some young players on the offensive line continue to improve. Geno Smith is a solid capable starting quarterback and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly at one point was one of the most innovative and progressive offensive minds in all of football. The defensive line has some talent although the rest of the defense is very questionable at this point. But new head coach, Pete Carroll, is one of the most decorated and smart defensive coaches in football history and should have the defense playing at an adequate level despite the relative lack of talent.
23.Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks are one of the more intriguing teams heading into next season as veteran quarterback Geno Smith has now been replaced with Sam Darnold. The team nearly made the playoffs last year but since quarterback Russell Wilson left the team they have been average on a year-to-year basis. It remains to be seen if they can buck the average trend of the franchise with Darnold. Defensive minded head coach Mike MacDonald saw his defense be above average in his first season as a head coach. The defense is line to be a top 10 if not a better unit as MacDonald heads into year 2. Sam Darnold and Geno Smith are very comparable quarterback talents and it remains to be seen if the Seahawks truly upgraded at the QB spot. The offensive line remains a big concern as it was one of the weakest units in the league last year and projects to be that next year as well. The skill position players are very good but have not proven to be special as of yet. Outside of the offensive line I do not have much concerns with Seattle but you question if Darnold, MacDonald, their defense, and their skill position players are truly next level. You also question how much they will be hindered by the weak offensive line play as well.
24.Patriots
The New England Patriots since the departure of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have struggled to find their future head coach and quarterback. I think they may have finally found it in the names of Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. Maye, who was the third overall pick in last year’s draft, had a remarkable rookie season despite being surrounded by amongst the league’s weakest offensive personnel and a rookie defensive minded head coach who was recently terminated. Mike Vrabel, although having not coached last season, is already one of the better head coaches and as of now is already in the discussion for being the best defensive head coach in the sport, given his track record with the Titans. They remain at #24 and not higher because the pairing is totally unproven and the roster despite some key additions this offseason such as Stefon Diggs, Morgan Moses, and Milton Williams, is still average to mediocre and mostly rebuilding. I could certainly see them vying for the postseason in year 1 with Maye/Vrabel, however. The Patriots are akin to the Jaguars heading into next season as both teams have young electric quarterback talents, both teams went 4-13 a season ago, and both teams hired a new head coach. However, I put the Jaguars higher because Jacksonville, despite their record consistently looked very strong against high end competition losing by just one possession to the Eagles, Vikings, and Packers whereas the Patriots don’t have a track record like that against high end competition from a season ago. The Jaguars also get to play in a very weak winnable AFC South whereas although the AFC East is not a world beating division, it is tougher and I give New England little to no chance to win the division over the Bills. Whereas I could see a scenario in which Jacksonville wins the AFC South.
25.Panthers
The Panthers in the first portion of the Bryce Young era looked absolutely abysmal and many were labeling the #1 overall pick as a bust. However, after he was benched a season ago and came back from the benching, he looked very effective and Carolina as a team also looked solid. They came up one possession short to both Super Bowl finalists in Philadelphia and Kansas City and even looked tough in division winning 2 divisional games. Their defense was atrocious last year, ranking last in both points and yards allowed. They will be a tough team to deal with next season but because the defense was so horrendous a season ago and we do not know exactly what we are getting with quarterback Bryce Young they remain at #25. If the defense can just be respectable next season and if Bryce Young can play like a number one overall pick which he did towards the end of last season, then the team will be capable of perhaps even contending for postseason play.
26.Cowboys
I think the Dallas Cowboys will indeed struggle with first year head coach Brian Schottenheimer. Dak Prescott, although effective, is still an average caliber quarterback and the roster leaves much to be desired as well. They will still be tough to deal with as many of the components from when the team went 12-5 in three consecutive seasons are still there, however. But an average to a less than average quarterback and roster with a totally unproven first year coach who many are saying was not even qualified for the job to begin with is a recipe for disaster.
27.Jets
The New York Jets really struggled a season ago, going 5-12 after having had Super Bowl expectations heading into the year. I question how they have gotten any better this offseason even after moving off of veteran quarterback Rodgers. Justin Fields is still unproven as a quarterback and erratic throwing the football as well. The team’s receiving core is amongst the weakest in the league and they also have a rookie defensive minded head coach and a first-time offensive coordinator. Given all that the team will struggle to score points and their defense I think could be very good but likely not great or elite. The team has many very good players however such as Quinnen Williams, Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall. New head coach Aaron Glenn was also a good hire and I think he has a bright future in the league.
28.Titans
With Cam Ward as the projected starter for the Titans next season I have the team in the #28 spot. Although the Titans were mostly a mess last season Cam Ward projects to be a star in the NFL and head coach Brian Callahan is going into year 2 with the franchise.
29.Giants
The New York Giants were abysmal a season ago as they got completely erratic and unreliable quarterback play with mostly a rebuilding roster. Now they have acquired once superstar quarterback Russell Wilson who had a bit of a resurgent year for the Steelers this past season. If he can recapture some of his old form again with head coach Brian Daboll the Giants could be a solid team next year. The team looked respectable at times last year coming up one possession short to the Commanders twice and eliminating the Colts from playoff contention in the final week of the season.
30.Steelers
With no definitive starting quarterback as of now the Steelers are in the bottom 3 of the NFL. Outside of the quarterback position the team is in good shape, however. The defense is amongst the premier defenses in the league and the offensive personnel is above average as well. But with no starting caliber quarterback on the roster as of now they remain at #30. If Aaron Rodgers were to sign with the team, they would skyrocket up this list, however. But even if that were to occur, I would not place them in the top 10 as Rodgers is hardly an upgrade over their QB spot from a season ago.
31.Browns
The Browns with head coach Kevin Stefanski have always been a tough out as Stefanski is only one of five head coaches ever who have won NFL coach of the year honors multiple times. The team has never had a reliable quarterback with him at the helm as the acquisition of Deshaun Watson as of now has been a complete and total whiff. The team has brought on Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett to compete for the starting job with Watson, however. The team is stout outside of the QB spot but in a quarterback’s game they do not have a starting caliber QB on their roster as of now which is why they remain so low. Perhaps Kenny Pickett, who was once a first-round pick and Deshaun Watson who was once a superstar can give the Browns strong QB play.
32.Saints
With quarterback Derek Carr likely out for the season the Saints as of now are the weakest team in the NFL. Without Derek Carr a season ago, the team looked absolutely abysmal at times and if any of the QBs on their roster as of now are in line to start, I would struggle to find any team who would be weaker than them.
