The Jaguars offensively this past season had their struggles as Trevor Lawrence couldn’t stay healthy, the personnel was questionable for the most part, and head couch Doug Pederson was perhaps exposed as being overrated. Headed into next season Pederson has since been terminated from the head coaching position and has been replaced by former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen. At first, I questioned the move because Pederson’s track record in the NFL as a head coach was so strong and Pederson never got a chance to fully click with Lawrence either. However, ever since the fire was made, I have come around to the thinking that it was indeed time for a change. Liam Coen was a very strong hire to replace Pederson as hiring a young smart offensive mind such as Coen is the type of head coach hire that I prefer the most. Coen certainly has the potential in my estimation to be a Sean McVay, Kevin O’Connell, or Kyle Shanahan type of coach for Jacksonville. Coen had the Buccaneers produce almost as well as any offense in the NFL this past season. That was despite QB Baker Mayfield being a backup for much of his career and possessing average physical traits, along with the Buccaneers having good but not great offensive personnel and a defensive minded head coach. Although the Bears’ hire of now former Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was noteworthy with Johnson being the most sought-after offensive coordinator for a head coaching position. I honestly do feel as if Liam Coen might end up being the better hire of the two coaches. As Coen did not have as much to work with in making the Buccaneers offense elite, compared to Ben Johnson who had almost perfect offensive circumstances to work with.
QB Trevor Lawrence, who as stated previously has not lived up to very lofty expectations thus far in the NFL, has certainly not been a bust and his struggles to a large extent are understandable. Headed into next season as Lawrence enters his prime, while hopefully staying healthier which he has failed to do for two straight seasons, with Jacksonville finally perhaps finding the right coach for him, Lawrence is in line to break out and I think he could certainly start to fulfill his potential. In four seasons in the NFL, Lawrence has consistently been a good to a very good but not a great QB as of yet. Take out his rookie season where he struggled, and in the past three seasons he has graded in the above average range in terms of an overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus among QBs with the qualified amount of snaps every season. His offense grades according to Pro Football for the past three seasons read as the following among QBs with the qualified amount of snaps, 2022 – (13/41), 2023 – (15/45), 2024 – (18/44). This included a pro bowl selection in 2022 where in the second half of his second season in the NFL he looked like an MVP candidate. Lawrence performing at a good but not a great level thus far in his career is understandable. Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson were big name coaches who were both perhaps overrated and were not getting the best out of Lawrence at QB. Lawrence has also struggled to stay healthy for two straight seasons now. Lawrence has yet to enter his prime as he only turned just 25 years old in the middle of last season. The offensive personnel groupings that Lawrence has been handed have consistently not cut it either. The person who put together those personnel groupings in now former Jaguars’ general manager Trent Baalke has just been terminated as well. As stated previously, as Lawrence enters his prime while hopefully staying healthier and also getting better support around him, I think it is very possible that Lawrence starts to live up to his #1 overall pick generational prospect potential starting next season.
As stated previously, the Jaguars struggled offensively this past season for more than a few reasons and new offensive minded head coach Liam Coen has his work cut out for him in fixing those issues. I will dissect here what exactly went wrong for the Jaguars offensively this past season and how it can be fixed headed into next season and whether it is in line to be fixed headed into next season. The Jaguars’ 2024 key offensive statistics/metrics can be found below.
2024 Jaguars Key Offensive Metrics
26th in points per game
25th in yards per game
24th in overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus
As you can see from the above the Jaguars really struggled offensively this past season, ranking in the bottom ten in all three of the major categories listed. Outside of Lawrence and Pederson the struggles that Jacksonville saw offensively this past season can also be attributed to subpar personnel. As outside of first year standout wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr, the Jaguars possessed average to mediocre caliber players pretty much everywhere you looked. While Thomas Jr, although performing exceptionally as a first rounder last season, was still a rookie and had his limitations. I have conducted an analysis of the Jaguars’ offensive personnel from the 2024 season and also headed into the 2025 season below. I have included the offense grade that each player was assigned by Pro Football Focus over the course of the 2024 season as well as my own subjective grade of the player that indicates how strong I feel they are in totality outside of just the 2024 season. Beginning below with the offensive line of the team during the 2024 season and also headed into the 2025 season.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 Starting Offensive Line
LT – Walker Little – (34/87) offense grade in 2024 over 508 snaps, C+ to B-
LG – Ezra Cleveland – (38/83) offense grade in 2024 over 911 snaps, B to B+
C – Mitch Morse – (35/43) offense grade in 2024 over 1021 snaps, C+
RG – Brandon Scherff – (39/83) offense grade in 2024 over 1013 snaps, B+
RT – Anton Harrison – (53/87) offense grade in 2024 over 943 snaps, C to C+
Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 Offensive Line Reserves
T – Cole Van Lanen – (58/87) offense grade in 2024 over 252 snaps, C
T – Cam Robinson – (52/87) offense grade in 2024 over 999 snaps for both Jax and Minn, C
G – Blake Hance – (54/83) offense grade in 2024 over 97 snaps, C-
G – Cooper Hodges – (47/83) offense grade in 2024 over 63 snaps
C – Luke Fortner – only 13 snaps in 2024, D+
2024 Key Jacksonville Jaguars Offensive Line Metrics
3rd in pass blocking efficiency
6th in sacks allowed
20th in pass blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus
26th in run blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus
As you can see from the above sets of data, the Jaguars had an interesting offensive line this past season. Despite grading so low in terms of pass blocking and run blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus, the Jaguars ranked in the top six in terms of both pass blocking efficiency and sacks allowed. That can certainly be attributed to both Trevor Lawrence and his backup Mac Jones getting rid of the ball quickly knowing that a pass rush is imminent, thus avoiding sacks and pressures that are otherwise accounted for in both the metrics they ranked so highly in. But regardless, allowing the sixth fewest sacks and ranking in the top three in terms of pass blocking efficiency still goes to show the talent that the Jaguars had on their offensive line this past season. The Jaguars this past season had five former first or second round picks start for them on the offensive front. Walker Little, Ezra Cleveland, Brandon Scherff, Anton Harrison and also Cam Robinson who was traded midseason were all drafted in the first two rounds.
Walker Little was a second-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and struggled in his first two seasons in the NFL where he did not log starter snaps. Little in his third NFL season logged starter snaps but struggled in his first season as a starter as well. Little in his second season logging starter snaps came into his own and started to play like one would expect a 2nd round pick to play as. Little as of now projects to be the starter at left tackle next season for the Jaguars and if he can continue to improve his level of play, he will provide Jacksonville with a strong option at that position. Left guard Ezra Cleveland was a second-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and has lived up to his potential. Cleveland has graded as above average in terms of an overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus every season he has played thus far in the NFL. Cleveland is scheduled to start at left guard for the team next season and just like Little will provide strong play for Jacksonville on the left side of their offensive line.
Mitch Morse started at center last season for the team but struggled as he was aging and he ranked among the weakest starting centers in the league. Morse has now retired from the league and the Jaguars needed to address their starting center spot this offseason. They have already done so by signing now former Buccaneer and former 2021 third round pick Robert Hainsey who is currently in line to start at center for the team. Hainsey being drafted relatively high has had a hit and miss career thus far in the NFL. In the 2021 and 2024 seasons, Hainsey in very limited action graded in the above average to well above average range among qualified players at his position in terms of an overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus but played less than 100 snaps in both seasons. In between those two seasons Hainsey started two full seasons logging over 1000 snaps in each year but struggled with consistency. In the 2022 season Hainsey graded (14/43) among qualified players at his position in terms of an overall offense grade while grading (32/40) in the remaining season, logging 1000+ snaps in both years. Hence the inconsistency, but the bright spot should be viewed as the following. Hainsey in three of four seasons has graded as above average and has proven he can be a consistently above average player while logging starter snaps as well. Given his high draft standing and his mostly strong play thus far in the NFL, he could very well be a strong option for the Jaguars at starting center next season.
At right guard Brandon Scherff started for the Jaguars this past season and was perhaps the strongest player on the Jaguars’ offensive line this past season. Scherff, a five-time pro bowler, played well for the Jaguars this past season but currently remains a free agent and is not on the team as of now. Currently the Jaguars are slated to start offseason addition Patrick Mekari at right guard who has had his ups and downs throughout his career. Mekari is one of the most versatile offensive lineman in the NFL having the ability to play at guard, center, or tackle. Mekari has graded as above average in terms of an offense grade in six of his eight NFL seasons. Mekari I think will be a solid but not spectacular option for the Jaguars at starting right guard next season and perhaps bringing back the likes of Brandon Scherff would bode the team well. At right tackle, 2023 first round pick Anton Harrison started for the team in 2024 and has had his ups and down thus far in the NFL but has shown a lot of promise. Harrison has graded in the below average range in terms of an overall offense grade among qualified tackles in each of his first two seasons starting in the NFL. However, Harrison has been highly effective as a pass protector thus far in the NFL ranking above average in terms of pass blocking efficiency in each of his first two seasons. Including a (7/58) ranking in that department as a rookie among qualified tackles. Harrison has, however, really struggled as a run blocker thus far in the NFL and if he can clean up that portion of his game, he can certainly start to live up to his first-round billing.
Headed into next season the sky is the limit for the Jaguars offensive line. Although the top six ranking in both sacks allowed and pass blocking efficiency from the 2024 season for Jacksonville may be a bit misleading, it is still indicative of a talented offensive line. If the young players on the offensive line live up to their potential along with one veteran in Patrick Mekari being in near peak form, the Jaguars’ starting offensive line could be very good if not great next season. At worst I think Jacksonville will field a solid offensive line next season, as in terms of raw talent, I struggle to find many other starting five offensive lines with more raw talent than Jacksonville has at this point. It is just a matter if young/inconsistent but still very talented players can be on their A games. The projected 2025 Jaguars’ offensive line can be found below.
2025 Projected Jaguars Starting Offensive Line
LT – Walker Little – B to B-
LG – Ezra Cleveland – B to B+
C – Robert Hainsey – B
RG – Patrick Mekari – B
RT – Anton Harrison – C+ to B-
2025 Projected Jaguars Offensive Line Reserves
T – Fred Johnson – C+ to B-
T/G – Chuma Edoga – C
C – Luke Fortner – D
T – Wyatt Milium – 2025 third round pick
T – Cole Van Lanen – C
T/G – Dennis Daley – C
G – Cooper Hodges – C to C-
C – Jonah Monheim – 2025 seventh round pick
G – Sal Wormley – UDFA 2025
T – Javon Foster – 0 career snaps as 2024 fourth round pick
Many of the grades that I assigned to starters are lower than they otherwise would be due to the players being so young/inconsistent. All the players who I listed as starters on the offensive front can increase noticeably in terms of the grade I assigned them if/when they maintain/improve upon their level of play which they are all very capable of doing. The Jaguars are not overly deep from an offensive line standpoint although Fred Johnson and 2025 third rounder Wyatt Milium can provide some strong depth for the team. As stated previously, if Jacksonville’s young/inconsistent offensive linemen can be on their A game, the Jaguars could have a very good if not a great offensive line headed into next season. I have conducted a similar analysis of the team’s skill position players from last season and also headed into next season as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 Skill Position Players
Wide Receivers
WR – Brian Thomas Jr – (17/110) offense grade in 2024 over 822 snaps, B+ so far as ’24 1st rd
WR – Parker Washington – (95/110) offense grade in 2024 over 583 snaps, C-
WR – Gabe Davis – (109/110) offense grade in 2024 over 410 snaps, C to C+
WR – Christian Kirk – (63/110) offense grade in 2024 over 337 snaps, C+ to B-
WR – Devin Duvernay – (95/110) offense grade in 2024 over 190 snaps, C-
WR – Tim Jones – only 3 receptions in 2024, D+ to C-
WR – Josh Reynolds – (89/110) offense grade in 2024 over 125 snaps, C to C+
WR – Austin Trammell – only 2 receptions in 2024, D+ to C-
WR – Elijah Cooks – 0 receptions in 2024, D+
WR – Joshua Cephus – 0 career receptions, UDFA 2024
Tight Ends
TE – Brenton Strange – (23/45) offense grade in 2024 over 576 snaps, C+ as ’23 2nd rd
TE – Evan Engram – (11/45) offense grade in 2024 over 363 snaps, B
TE – Luke Farrell – (39/45) offense grade in 2024 over 390 snaps, C to C+
TE – Josiah Deguara – (45/45) offense grade in 2024 over 86 snaps, D+ to C-
Running Backs
HB – Travis Etienne Jr – (50/57) offense grade in 2024 over 494 snaps, B to B-
HB – Tank Bigsby – (35/57) offense grade in 2024 over 351 snaps, C
HB – D’Ernest Johnson – (50/57) offense grade in 2024 over 192 snaps, C+
HB – Keilan Robinson – 5 career snaps as 2024 5th rounder
As you can see from the above data outside of star rookie 1st round wide out Brian Thomas Jr who himself had a ceiling to his game being in just his first season, the Jaguars skill position players left much to be desired in 2024. Christian Kirk was the only other viable wide out to go alongside Thomas Jr, but he struggles with consistency which included grading as below average in an injury shortened 2024 campaign. At the tight end spot Evan Engram is a strong player who also struggles with consistency. But Engram played very well in the 2024 season before it was shortened by an injury as well. Brenton Strange at tight end was a 2023 second round pick who struggled mightily in his rookie season but showed noticeable improvement this past 2024 season. Strange was still pretty average among tight ends last season but given his very high draft selection as well as his large improvement from year 1 to year 2, he is in line to break out next season. In terms of the running backs a similar story persists for 2021 first rounder Travis Etienne Jr out of the backfield. Etienne Jr did not play as a rookie and had a solid but not spectacular first season in 2022. In Etienne Jr’s second season logging snaps in 2023 he played very well grading in nearly the top 25% among all qualified running backs in terms of an overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus. Etienne Jr had a down year this past season, but given the fact that he was drafted in the first round and has shown a very high ceiling although struggling with consistency, the jury is still out on him as a high level back in the NFL. Tank Bigsby was a third rounder in the 2023 draft but has struggled in the league for the most part but has produced at a solid level from time to time. D’Ernest Johnson has shown a very high ceiling in the NFL but has struggled with consistency as well.
Headed into next season there have been some changes to the Jaguars’ skill position grouping. Evan Engram and Christian Kirk have both left the team while several of the players who provided depth at the skill positions have also departed the team as well. Brian Thomas Jr, who had an exceptional rookie season as a first-round pick is in line to emerge as a star beginning next year. The team selected generational talent Travis Hunter with the 2nd overall pick in the NFL Draft who is known for playing both sides of the ball, wide receiver on offense and cornerback on defense. Most of his snaps will likely occur at wide out and he has star potential at the position. The combination of Brian Thomas Jr and Travis Hunter at wide out will rank amongst the most talented wide receiver duos in the NFL although both players are very young at this point. Tight end Brenton Strange and running back Travis Etienne Jr were both drafted very highly in recent memory and have shown from time to time that they were indeed worthy of being drafted in the first two rounds. However, both players have struggled with consistency and both will be on the clock to perform at a consistently high level from this point onwards. The Jaguars, in terms of depth at the skill positions are indeed lacking at this point as I question if they have reserves capable of replicating the production of starters. The Jaguars’ projected 2025 skill position player lineup is listed below.
2025 Projected Jaguars’ Skill Position Lineup
Wide Receivers
WR – Brian Thomas Jr – B+
WR – Travis Hunter – 2025 first round pick
WR – Dyami Brown – C-
WR – Parker Washington – D+
WR – Joshua Cephus – UDFA 2024, 0 career rec
WR – Austin Trammell – D+
WR – Trenton Irwin – C-
WR – Louis Rees-Zammit – UDFA 2024, 0 career rec
WR – Chandler Brayboy – UDFA 2025
WR – J.J Jones – UDFA 2025
WR – Dorian Singer – UDFA 2025
Tight Ends
TE – Brenton Strange – C+
TE – Johnny Mundt – C to C+
TE – Hunter Long – 8 career receptions in 4 seasons
TE – Quintin Morris – 15 receptions in 3 seasons
Running Backs
HB – Travis Etienne Jr – B to B-
HB – Tank Bigsby – C
HB – Bhayshul Tuten – 2025 fourth round pick
HB – LeQuint Allen Jr – 2025 seventh round pick
Just like with the offensive line and with QB Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars in terms of raw talent in their skill position grouping ranks up there with almost any team in the NFL. It is just a matter of whether or not the young players can consistently start to play at their full potential. If the Jaguars’ skill position players play near their full potential, the Jaguars’ starting skill position players between Thomas Jr/Hunter at wide receiver, Strange at tight end, and Etienne Jr at running back, will rank up there with almost anyone.
In totality, the Jaguars’ offense next season has as much raw talent as pretty much any team in the NFL. It is just a matter of whether or not the young players, including QB Trevor Lawrence, can reach their potential. If the young players, especially Lawrence at QB, play at or near their full potential next season, the Jaguars could be a very scary offense in 2025. Especially if new head coach Liam Coen is the next Kevin O’Connell, Kyle Shanahan, or Sean McVay as a young offensive mind. But it does feel as if the Jaguars are perhaps still a year away from being in peak form offensively. As next season, Coen will still be a rookie head coach, Lawrence and Coen will still be in just year 1 together, the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator will still be a rookie NFL offensive coordinator, and the Jaguars’ offensive personnel will still be very young as well. The Jaguars’ offense next season has the feel that the 2017 Los Angeles Rams did and that the Rams with Jared Goff/Sean McVay did in general. #1 overall pick Jared Goff who wore #16 just like Trevor Lawrence was a #1 overall pick who wears #16, both saw the offenses they quarterbacked struggle with big name head coaches, Jeff Fisher for Goff and Doug Pederson/Urban Meyer for Lawrence. Goff was being thought of as a bust being drafted #1 overall just like some are saying Lawrence has been a bust being drafted #1 overall. But then Goff got the young smart offensive minded head coach in Sean McVay and started to fulfill his potential with the Rams going from having one of the weakest offenses in the NFL to one of the strongest in the NFL. The Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence are in a similar spot, where they had amongst the league’s weakest offenses last season, and perhaps a young smart offensive minded Liam Coen can turn things around like McVay did for Goff and the Rams.
