Everyone including myself pretty much agrees that as of now there are only four truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL today. Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, Lamar Jackson of the Ravens, Josh Allen of the Bills, and Joe Burrow of the Bengals. The two quarterbacks who consistently are mentioned as soon to be joining that group are Justin Herbert of the Chargers and Jayden Daniels of the Commanders. I do not disagree with that sentiment whatsoever as those two quarterbacks are exceptional and phenomenal and just need to gain more experience before joining that first group. However, a quarterback who consistently exceeds expectations and does not get nearly the credit/recognition he deserves for being how good he is, is Jared Goff. Perhaps Goff can make a run into joining that first group as well.
In Goff’s first season in the NFL the Rams finished last in the league in terms of points scored with Jeff Fisher as the head coach. In Goff’s second season in the NFL with then new head coach Sean McVay, the Rams proceeded to score the most points in the NFL. Goff because of how poor he looked as a rookie with outdated head coach Jeff Fisher. Many attribute the drastic improvement Goff saw from his 2nd season onwards with the Rams to new head coach Sean McVay. Although McVay deserved a ton of credit for instilling that turnaround, Goff did not get nearly the credit he deserved for it. As being a rookie quarterback with an outdated defensive minded head coach was not a formula for seeing success as an NFL QB.
Many point to Goff’s inability to overcome weaker offensive circumstances as being the primary reason why he is not in that first group with the Josh Allen’s and Patrick Mahomes’ of the world. As Jared Goff has consistently struggled with weaker offensive lines and without ideal personnel and coaching around him on the offensive side of the ball. However, one should certainly except that it’s a flaw of his and also acknowledge the fact that a few of the QBs in tier 1 also are flawed. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has consistently underwhelmed come postseason time and quarterback Joe Burrow struggles with injuries. In terms of raw ceiling as a player, there is little to no gap between Goff and Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen, although there is a noticeable one between Goff and Lamar Jackson. Which is not an insult to Goff as Lamar Jackson is arguably the most talented quarterback in NFL history.
There being little to no gap between Goff and Allen/Mahomes/Burrow when all four are in peak form is exemplified by the following. Although quarterback statistics are indeed very important, the overall success of the offense, even if the QB stats do not blow you away, is the largest barometer for measuring how successful a quarterback is. The number one way the overall success of the offense is indeed measured is simply by looking at how many points the offense scored. Jared Goff was the quarterback for the leagues top scoring offense on two different occasion for two different teams. Patrick Mahomes has also accomplished that feat twice but only with one team. While Joe Burrow and Josh have never accomplished that feat. Granted Burrow and Allen were not gifted the offensive circumstances that Mahomes/Goff were but it still goes to show you that in terms of an overall ceiling there is little to no gap between all four players. Jared Goff also holds a few notable NFL passing records which are the following. Goff holds the record for most pass attempts in a game where the QB finished with a perfect passer rating. Along with holding the record for most pass attempts thrown in a game with a perfect passer rating while not throwing an incompletion. Again, referencing the thinking that how many points an offense scores being the biggest barometer for measuring the success of a quarterback. The Lions offensive attack this past season led by Jared Goff exemplifies the thinking that Goff is indeed underrated. The Lions in the 2024 season scored the 4th most points in an NFL regular season ever with Goff starting all the games. Teams 1-3 on that list were led by Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Patrick Mahomes, quarterbacks who many recognize to be the three greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.
Goff, not getting the credit he deserves and being underrated, is not just correlated with his poor rookie season but also with the Matthew Stafford trade. Jared Goff started for the Rams for five seasons and never won a Super Bowl. Right when Matthew Stafford was traded for him, Stafford won a Super Bowl in his first season starting for the Rams. So, people were of the mindset that Goff was not very good because firstly a team traded him and secondly the team won the Super Bowl in the first year after trading him. However, a part of that narrative that gets overlooked is the following.
Firstly, Matthew Stafford was also a number one overall pick at the quarterback position who was heralded as a generational prospect entering the NFL who is also underrated. Stafford was also no better than Goff but just a better fit for the Rams that season. As McVay wanted a veteran presence at the quarterback position who could do more damage outside the pocket which Stafford gave them more of. It should also be noted that although the Rams won the Super Bowl in the first season without Goff and with Stafford. That the Lions indeed improved more going from Stafford to Goff than the Rams did going from Goff to Stafford, although not winning a Super Bowl yet. From 2009 to 2020 the Lions with Stafford at the quarterback position made the playoffs a combined three times and never won a playoff game and never reached the divisional round. When Goff took over the starting quarterback position for Detroit, they have already made the playoffs twice in four seasons winning two playoff games and making two divisional rounds along with a conference championship. Whereas the Rams with Goff at quarterback still made a Super Bowl and consistently got to the playoffs but Stafford just got them over the hump. The Lions with Jared Goff at quarterback could have easily won a Super Bowl by now if it were not for some injuries and recklessness the past two postseasons as well. I would also venture to say that the Lions teams of the past two seasons with Goff at quarterback have reached a higher ceiling than not only the Lions with Stafford have ever reached but also a higher ceiling than the Rams with Stafford have ever reached. And a Super Bowl title for Goff and the Lions is imminent and the only reason they have not gotten one already with Goff at QB is due to recklessness in the postseason. As Stafford has never held a three-possession lead in a conference title for any NFL team like Goff did in the 2023 season, and Stafford never has led any team to the #1 seed in the conference like Goff did in the 2024 season for Detroit.
Although in my personal opinion I do not have Goff in that first tier of NFL QBs, he is certainly the next closest thing and in my estimation is the most underrated quarterback in the NFL today. One could make a very strong argument that Goff indeed belongs in the first tier of NFL QBs right in the same group as Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. As his ceiling as a quarterback is just as high as Allen, Mahomes, and Burrow. And although his ceiling is not quite as high as Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff is to be trusted in the postseason more than Lamar Jackson at this point. The primary reason he is never mentioned in that first group of QBs is due to a lower floor as his play often really diminishes with unideal offensive circumstances in particular weaker offensive lines. Which is fine as that certainly is his flaw but even some of the QBs in tier 1 are flawed as well with Lamar Jackson consistently struggling in the postseason and Joe Burrow consistently struggling with injuries. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow are no better than Jared Goff if all four QBs are placed in ideal offensive circumstances. Although I do admit that those four QBs in unideal offensive circumstances are much better than Goff. Lamar Jackson is better than Goff in terms of an overall ceiling but not by that much and Goff is still to be trusted more in the playoffs than Lamar Jackson at this point. Outside of Patrick Mahomes who is on pace to be the greatest quarterback in NFL history, no other QB in the NFL consistently leads such explosive offenses and consistently advances so deep into the postseason as Goff does. As not even Jackson, Allen, and Burrow have consistently led historically great offenses while reaching Super Bowls and conference titles. Burrow has reached a Super Bowl but never has led a historically great offensive attack like Goff did in 2018 with the Rams and like Goff did in 2024 with the Lions. Allen and Jackson never led offensive attacks to quite the caliber that Goff did in 2018 and 2024 with neither QB reaching a Super Bowl as of yet like Goff has.
One of the biggest things that I did not mention with Goff and how good he is, would be the fact that he has been an elite caliber QB for two separate franchises now. Something only 3-4 other QBs in NFL history in Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Joe Montana can say. With the latter three of those players being recognized by many as perhaps the three greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. If Goff can win a Super Bowl, I would have no problem putting him in the first tier of NFL QBs right in the same group as Patrick Mahomes. Goff’s 54-51 win as a Ram over Mahomes and the Chiefs in the 2024 season exemplifies the even nature of those two players. With Goff’s 54-point performance against the Chiefs in 2018 and his performance on Thursday Night Football against the Vikings that same season as well being two of the greatest if not the two greatest quarterback performances I have ever seen.
