Jordan Love was compared to Patrick Mahomes entering the NFL draft and has been strong in the NFL thus far. However, it remains to be seen to many including myself if he truly is a next level type of quarterback talent or in a league with so much QB talent, if he is just closer to average at QB. The four premier QBs in the NFL are almost universally regarded as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson. Finding a QB talent such as that is incredibly hard to do and in the likely scenario in which you don’t have a QB of that caliber, the question remains if you have the next closest thing. Having the next closest thing at QB is nothing to be ashamed of. As in the past six seasons when the Chiefs with Mahomes have not won it all, the three teams who have won the Super Bowl in the Bucs, Rams, and Eagles have not had tier 1 caliber QBs such as Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Jackson. In my estimation the two strongest teams in the NFL a season ago were the Lions and Eagles with neither one of those teams having a tier 1 QB talent. Jordan Love in my estimation as of now is in that same group as Stafford, Hurts, and Goff in that he is the next closest thing to a tier 1 QB talent. However, it remains to be seen if he can transition to a tier 1 caliber QB as I think he may have the talent to do so. As he was heralded as the next Patrick Mahomes entering the NFL draft for a reason. Despite that the question of whether or not he is truly in that same class with Hurts, Goff, and Stafford as the next closest thing at QB to a tier 1 player at the position still remains a question mark. As those three quarterbacks have a combined four Super Bowl appearances and two Super Bowl wins while Jordan Love has never appeared in a Super Bowl. Although Love only being a starter for two seasons and not having surrounding circumstances as strong as those three players certainly contributes to Love’s lack of a Super Bowl appearance thus far.
Jordan Love first appeared as an NFL starter in the 2023 season and got off to a very rocky start. In weeks 1-8 of the 2023 season Love ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of passer rating among qualified quarterbacks. He also ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of an offense grade and a passing grade according to Pro Football Focus among qualified QBs as well. Love did do some damage in the ground game during that time span as well rushing for 164 yards on 6.6 yards per attempt in seven games. Love’s major QB numbers for weeks 1-8 of the 2023 season which was his first season starting can be found below.
Jordan Love weeks 1-8 of 2023 season
-(25/35) overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus among QBs with 20% of max drop backs in timespan
-(24/35) overall passing grade according to Pro Football Focus among QBs with 20% of max drop backs in timespan
-(30/35) in passer rating among QBs with 20% of max drop backs in timespan
-10th among QBs in rushing yards in that time span
-1st among QBs in rushing yards per attempt in that time span
As you can see from the above data Jordan Love really struggled as a passer in the first half of his first season starting in the NFL. Jordan Love however really flourished in the ground game among QBs in that time span ranking top 10 in rushing yards among QBs and leading all QBs in rushing yards per attempt in that time span as well. In week 9 of the season until the postseason, Jordan Love really caught his stride and started to emerge as a star at the position. Love’s same QB numbers in the second half of the season can be found below.
Jordan Love weeks 9-18 of the 2023 season
-(2/43) overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus among QBs with 20% of max drop backs in timespan
-(2/43) overall passing grade according to Pro Football Focus among QBs with 20% of max drop backs in timespan
-(5/43) in passer rating among QBs with 20% of max drop backs in timespan
-21st in rushing yards among QBs in that time span
-22nd among qualified QBs in rushing yards per attempt in that time span
As you can see from the above data although Jordan Love took a big step backwards as a runner perhaps because he did not need to depend on it as much with his improved passing, Love really came into his own in the 2nd half of his first season starting. Jordan Love in the second half of the 2023 season which was his first season starting ranked 2nd in terms of an overall offense grade and an overall passing grade among qualified QBs according to Pro Football Focus while ranking 5th among qualified QBs in passer rating. The only QB who he was behind in the first two grading metrics by Pro Football Focus was Brock Purdy of the 49ers. The 49ers offensive coaching and personnel outside of the QB spot is consistently amongst the elite in the NFL if not the premier combination of those things in the NFL on a perennial basis allowing QBs to flourish. Although the Packers had solid offensive coaching and personnel in the 2023 season, it was certainly not on the level of the 49ers that year.
In the postseason that year Jordan Love came to play as well as the Packers led by Jordan Love put up 48 points on a top 5 scoring defense in the Dallas Cowboys in route to winning on the road in the wild card round. Love albeit on just 21 passing attempts in that game posted a passer rating of 157.2 just one 1.1 points shy of the perfect 158.3 mark. In the Packers’ second postseason game Jordan Love did indeed struggle against a 49ers team and defense that was step up over the Cowboys. Love struggled in that game, turning the ball over multiple times and failing to pass for even 200 yards and posting a poor 72.4 passer rating. The Packers went on to lose that game by a final score of 24-21 on the road in Love’s first season as starter with Green Bay being the youngest playoff team since the 1970s.
In Jordan Love’s first season as starter there was almost too much to be optimistic about heading into the future. Love struggled mightily throwing the football in the first half of the season but was elite among QBs in terms of running the football. In the second half of the season, Love became an elite passer although his impact in terms of running the ball was minimalized. Although Love’s strong play was in a very limited sample size, half a season, the Packers still gave him a 4-year 220-million-dollar contract after the season had ended. As he was as good as any quarterback in the NFL in the second half of the season in terms of throwing the football, had showed an elite ceiling as a runner in the first half of the season, and he had showed the ability to perform at a high level come postseason time as well. With the Packers having a relatively average roster and being the youngest playoff team since the 1970s, Green Bay led by Jordan Love in his first season as starter came up only one possession short of the eventual NFC Champion 49ers in the postseason.
Expectations for Jordan Love and the Packers were sky high heading into the 2024 season as many picked them to even win the NFC building off the successful first season they had. Love unfortunately was unable to replicate the elite back half of the 2023 season he had in the 2024 season. As he was closer to average for the duration of the 2024 season having a bit of a sophomore slump as a starter. Love’s key QB metrics for the 2024 season just like I provided previously can be found below.
Jordan Love 2024 Regular Season Key QB Metrics
-(16/44) overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus among QBs with 20% of max drop backs in timespan
-(14/44) overall passing grade according to Pro Football Focus among QBs with 20% of max drop backs in timespan
-(12/44) in passer rating among QBs with 20% of max drop backs in timespan
-34th among QBs in rushing yards in that time span on only 3.3 yards per attempt which ranked near the bottom among QBs as well
As you can see from the above data, Jordan Love was just a slightly above average starting quarterback in the 2024 season. Likewise, the Packers led by him as the starter were just a slightly above average team. Love did next to no damage in the ground game and was near the middle of the pack among starting QBs in all the major passing metrics/grades. The Packers led by Jordan Love finished 11-6 with the last wild card spot in the NFC. The Packers put up a better fight than expected in a two-possession road loss to the eventual champion Eagles in the first round of the playoffs. The Packers putting up a good fight in that game should be a reason for optimism among the fanbase with regards to Love being the starter as that same Eagles won in blowout fashion in the conference title and Super Bowl. Love’s meager production in the 2024 season should not be a sign to panic as the Packers had relatively average if not less than average offensive personnel. Although Matt Lafleur has proven to be a fine head coach, he has not shown himself to be anything more than just a solid offensive mind as a head coach.
If you reference what I said at the beginning of the article there are four QBs in the NFL who are universally regarded to be elite. Josh Allen of the Bills, Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, Joe Burrow of the Bengals, and Lamar Jackson of the Ravens. Finding a QB of that caliber is very rare and in the likely scenario in which you do not have a QB of that caliber, the question remains if you have the next closest thing at the position. Having the next closest thing is nothing to be ashamed of in that the Eagles and Lions in my estimation were the two strongest NFL teams this past season with neither having a tier 1 QB. Jordan Love in my estimation is the next closest thing at the QB position to the likes of Allen, Mahomes etc at this point in time. He absolutely belongs in that group with the likes of Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, and Jared Goff. QBs who are very talented but perhaps not elite talents who have reached and won multiple Super Bowls. Although Jordan Love has not reached a Super Bowl as of yet like those three players have, him only being a starter for two seasons has obviously contributed to that.
There are two QBs in the NFL where I feel as if it is only a matter of time before they join that first tier with Allen/Mahomes etc, in Jayden Daniels and Justin Herbert. Goff, Hurts, and Stafford are exceptional but it feels as if they will remain tier 2 QBs for the entirety of their careers. Jordan Love feels as if he is in the middle of both groups, where it does not feel imminent that he will join the first tier like Daniels and Herbert feel like they will. But it does not feel like he will almost certainly remain a tier 2 for his career like Goff, Hurts, and Stafford feel like they will. As Jordan Love has shown just as high of a ceiling as Hurts, Stafford, and Goff in terms of throwing the football and has shown just as high of a ceiling in terms of running the football as all three have as well. Whereas Hurts has not shown an elite passing ceiling and Stafford/Goff have not shown an elite running ceiling. Whereas Love has shown the ability to be elite in both categories. But Love does not feel as if he is the physical specimen that Herbert and Daniels are in terms of size and athletic ability respectively. Jordan Love feels like he is in a similar group to the likes of Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, and Kyler Murray where you can win a Super Bowl with them and they are tier 2 players like Goff/Hurts/Stafford. But they also have the potential to eventually transition to being a tier 1 QB in the same group as Allen/Mahomes etc.
From an optimistic standpoint Jordan Love can eventually join that group as he in terms of raw physical talent is absolutely in the same class as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Continuing with the optimism, worst case scenario he will be a tier 2 caliber QB who can win a Super Bowl such as Stafford/Goff/Hurts. From a pessimistic standpoint, Jordan Love has been an average quarterback for all of his career outside of the 2nd half of the 2023 season.
