Heading into the 2024 season, the Falcons were one of the more intriguing teams in professional football. They were entering the season with a first-year defensive minded head coach who was unsuccessful in his previous head coaching tenure along with having two capable quarterbacks. The Falcons signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins and even though they signed him they still decided to draft rookie Michael Penix Jr in the top 10 of the NFL draft. The Falcons boasted one of the premier rosters in professional football entering the season and projected to play in one of the weakest if not the weakest division in the NFL as well. Atlanta after winning the aforementioned weak division for a large portion of the year they ultimately ended up finishing 8-9 and missing the postseason. The Falcons elected to bench veteran Kirk Cousins who went through a really bad stretch in the latter portion of the season and went with rookie Penix Jr instead. Penix Jr is very talented and possesses one of the stronger arms in the NFL as one of the only two lefty starting NFL quarterbacks, in addition to running a remarkable 4.46 40-yard dash. His lengthy collegiate injury history was the biggest reason he did not go higher in the draft closer to where the likes of Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams were selected. It was perhaps to the benefit of Penix Jr as the Falcons easily have the strongest roster out of any of the four teams who selected quarterbacks in the top 10 and the Falcons easily play in the weakest division out of any of the four teams as well. Penix Jr in three NFL starts in 2024 was relatively mundane posting a passer rating of just 78.9 along with completing less than 60% of his throws and throwing an interception in every start. However, that is a very small sample size with him as just a rookie with a first-year defensive minded coach as well. Penix Jr’s development heading into the next season will be the biggest storyline for the Atlanta Falcons heading into the offseason.
As aforementioned, the roster that the Falcons supplied Penix Jr with is one of the premier rosters in the NFL and is perhaps the most underrated roster in professional football as well. On the offensive side of the ball the team is stacked with talent led by a very strong offensive line. I have conducted an evaluation of the team’s offensive line with me assigning each player a subjective grade that indicates how strong of players I deem them to be in totality. This subjective grade is based upon yearly statistical output and subjective grades that have been assigned to them by Pro Football Focus as well.
Falcons starting five offensive line
LT – Jake Matthews – B to B+
LG – Matthew Bergeron – B-
C – Drew Dalman – B to B-, free agent
RG – Chris Lindstrom – A+
RT – Kaleb McGary – B to B+
Key Falcons Offensive Line Reserves
C – Ryan Neuzil – C+ in limited snaps
G – Kyle Hinton – C+ to B- in limited snaps
T – Storm Norton – C+ to B-, free agent
T – Tyler Vrabel – C+ in very limited snaps
T – Elijah Wilkinson – C+, free agent
The Falcons offensive line during the 2024 season finished graded as the #9 pass blocking unit in the NFL along with being graded as the #1 run blocking unit in the NFL as well according to Pro Football Focus. The Falcons offensive line finished being ranked (15/32) in terms of pass blocking efficiency and gave up the 6th least sacks in the NFL as well. This Falcons line from the above metrics and subjective grades is a very good to a great pass protecting unit and perhaps the premier run blocking unit in the sport. Left tackle Jake Matthews although he is not one of the premier left tackles in the sport still consistently is an above average to a well above average player at the position. Minus his rookie season, the former first round pick in 2014 has ranked in the top 15 in terms of pass blocking efficiency among all tackles on every instance except two. One of which was this past year where he ranked 25th in that metric. Matthews is very good and often borderline great in pass protection but has never been quite elite in that category as he has failed to ever be in the top 5 among tackles in terms of pass blocking efficiency. Matthews is inconsistent as a run blocker however, as in 11 seasons he has graded above average in terms of run blocking grade on only 5 occasions while grading below average in the remaining six instances. 2023 second round pick Matthew Bergeron started for the Falcons at left guard a season ago and was solid in doing so. Bergeron was stout in the ground game for Atlanta this past season but struggled in pass protection. A similar story persisted for the left guard in his rookie season as well. In his two seasons in the NFL, Bergeron has ranked below average in pass blocking efficiency in both years but ranked above average in terms of run blocking grade both years. The center position was the biggest weakness on the Atlanta offensive line this past season. Starter Drew Dalman missed roughly half the season due to injury with backup Ryan Neuzil taking his place during Dalman’s absence. Dalman is one of the more unique starting offensive lineman in the game today as he consistently grades as perhaps the premier interior run blocker in the sport but consistently struggles in pass protection. Dalman in three seasons where he has logged significant snaps has ranked (2/32), (11/32) and (5/44) in terms of run blocking grade among players at his position. But in terms of pass blocking efficiency in those same three seasons he has really struggled ranking (30/32), (30/32), and (26/44) in that category over those three seasons where he logged substantial snaps. Although he has improved as the (26/44) ranking was his most recent ranking in that department that he had during the 2024 season. Backup center Ryan Neuzil was serviceable but not nearly as good as Dalman. Neuzil has shown some high-end capabilities at the position finishing (15/57) in terms of pass blocking efficiency in over 200 snaps in the 2023 season. But in 2024 Neuzil finished (23/30) in terms of overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus in the time he stepped in at center in place of the injured Dalman. Right guard Chris Lindstrom is the strongest player on the Atlanta offensive line as the former 2019 first-round pick is in the definitive conversation for being the best overall guard in the sport. Lindstrom has finished as the highest graded guard in the NFL for three consecutive seasons now according to Pro Football Focus. Lindstrom excels in both pass protection and run blocking finishing 1st and 2nd in pass blocking efficiency in 2022 and 2023 respectively, although he dipped noticeably in 2024 where he ranked only (40/83) in that category. Likewise, Lindstrom finished 1st, 3rd, and 1st in run blocking grade in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. Right tackle Kaleb McGary is also a standout on the offensive line as the 2019 first round pick consistently ranks among the better tackles in the NFL. McGary is effective but inconsistent in pass protection as in six total seasons starting now, he has finished above average in pass blocking efficiency three times including being in the top five on one occasion. But he has ranked below average in that same department in each of the remaining three seasons. A similar story of inconsistency persists with McGary as a run blocker as well. Where he has finished above average in terms of run blocking grade in 4 of 6 seasons including being ranked as high as 2 in that department but ranked below average the remaining two seasons. However, the two seasons where he was below average in terms of run blocking were his first two seasons and the three seasons where he ranked below average in terms of pass protection were his first three seasons. The emphasis that Atlanta places on their offensive line is also evidenced by the fact that they have one of the deepest offensive lines in the league. As they have several players who served in reserve roles who are capable of being starters and who consistently produce at an above average NFL level.
The Falcons offensive line is in the definitive conversation for being the best overall offensive line in the NFL along with the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions who were two of the prime Super Bowl contending teams during the 2024 campaign. If Penix Jr can prove to be in the same class with the likes of Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts, which I certainly think he is capable of. Atlanta can perhaps be in a similar class to Detroit and Philadelphia next season.
Likewise, the skill position talent that Atlanta boasts is comparable to that of the Eagles and Lions as well. I conducted a similar evaluation of the Falcons key skill position players.
WR1 – Drake London – A to A-
WR2 – Darnell Mooney – B
TE1 – Kyle Pitts – B+
HB1 – Bijan Robinson – A
HB2 – Tyler Allgeier – B+ to A-
2021 first round pick tight end Kyle Pitts has shown a ton of promise at the position but has yet to come into his own as of yet perhaps due to the weak quarterback play of the Falcons. In his first three seasons in the NFL Pitts graded (5/44), (8/43), and (17/46) in terms of offense grade among tight ends, with Pitts amassing over 1000 yards including having over 15 yards a reception in his rookie season where he had the top five ranking. In terms of an offense grade in 2024 Pitts regressed badly this past season where he ranked (35/45). Too much stock should not be put into that given how high he was drafted, how productive he was in years 1-3, and how weak the quarterback play still was for Atlanta this past season. Pitts with high level quarterback play which I believe the Falcons could certainly have with the likes of Penix Jr going into year 2 next season will consistently rank among the premier tight ends in the game of football. A similar story persists for Falcons’ number one wide receiver Drake London where he was taken in the first round very recently and has consistently performed at a high level but has yet to come into his own given how weak the quarterback play has been for Atlanta. In his three seasons in the NFL London has graded (23/102), (12/103), and (7/110) in terms of an overall offense grade according to Pro Football Focus. Those aforementioned grades are also in chronological order from his rookie season until this past season so there has been an improvement every year. London accounted for an astounding 1271 yards this past season, which was the first time he crossed the 1000-yard mark in his brief career. London has the potential to be among the truly elite wide receivers in the game if and when he were to be paired with a high-level quarterback the likes of which Atlanta is optimistic Penix Jr can flourish into. Darnell Mooney served as the team’s secondary wide receiver this past season and was effective in doing so accounting for nearly 1000 yards on over 15 yards a reception. Mooney would have certainly surpassed the 1000-yard mark if he hadn’t missed a game as he had 992 yards while missing 1 game. Mooney has been underrated thus far in the NFL because he has lacked the quarterback play to support him as he played for the Chicago Bears from 2020 to 2023 who always have subpar quarterback play, and in year 1 with the Falcons he had an over-the-hill Kirk Cousins and a rookie Michael Penix Jr throwing him the ball. Despite that, Mooney still had over 1000 yards in 2021 and nearly 1000 yards in 2024. Outside of his rookie season, Mooney has graded above average in terms of offense grade on every instance expect one, including being graded as above average this past season. I believe Mooney could certainly begin to emerge as one of the best number two wide receivers in the NFL if he were to be paired with a high-level quarterback the likes of which Atlanta hopes Penix Jr is. The running back unit for the Atlanta Falcons is also a strong suit of the team and is one of the more underrated running back rooms in the league. 2023 first round pick Bijan Robinson had a solid rookie campaign accounting for nearly 1000 yards on 4.5 yards per attempt. But Robinson really was outstanding in year 2 as a professional where he came into his own. Robinson accounted for over 1400 yards rushing, which was third in the NFL behind just Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry who are almost universally seen as the two best running backs in the NFL. Robinson was top 5 in the NFL in both receptions and receiving yards among running backs this past season as well. Bijan Robinson finished the 2024 campaign being graded as the number two overall running back in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry according to Pro Football Focus. Number two running back Tyler Allgeier provides some strong depth at the position as Allgeier as ranked in the top 8 among all running backs in terms of offense grade in all three seasons he has played in the NFL thus far.
Many of the above players as alluded to previously are young high draft picks who have not had much opportunity to come into their own as players. As they have not been in the league long enough and/or they have not been paired with the high-level quarterback/offensive attack as of yet either. So, once they do the grades that I have assigned them thus far can certainly increase as they are able to produce at a higher level in the NFL more consistently. As you can see from the above data, the Falcons are deep at the running back having one of the premier number two halfbacks in the game today in Tyler Allgeier. But they are not overly deep at the remaining skill positions as the rotational/backup players they have at tight end and wide receiver as of now are all just average caliber players who grade in the C range. The same logic applies for the teams remaining rotational/backup running backs as well.
Overall, on the offensive side of the ball the Falcons possess some of the strongest offensive personnel in the NFL heading into the 2025 offseason as their offensive line and skill position players rank up there with any team in the league. The only key free agent on the offensive side of the ball is starting center Drew Dalman who the team should look to re-sign with the limited cap space they have that ranks bottom five in the NFL. The design of this Atlanta Falcons team is similar to that of the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles who were the two premier teams in the NFC if not the NFL for the majority of this season. Where each of the three teams has an elite offensive line that is in the definitive conversation for being the best line in the NFL. Each team has skill position talent that ranks up there with any team in the NFL as well. Each team has a tier 2 level quarterback talent who cannot carry a team per-say but has as high of a ceiling as nearly anyone from a talent standpoint. If the Falcons want to be in that same group with Detroit and Philadelphia next season, Penix Jr will have to show that he is in the same class as those two quarterbacks which is a big if. Raheem Morris is not overly proven as a head coach and out of the three teams Atlanta with Morris is the only coach who is defensive minded as well. He and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson who are going into year 2 will have to prove that the Falcons can be coached on the offensive side of the ball to the extent the Eagles and Lions are as well.
The defense of the Atlanta Falcons was a concern this past season as the team ranked 23rd in the NFL in points allowed, 23rd in yards allowed as well, and were graded as the #16 defense in professional football this past season as well. They were unable to generate a pass rush as the team ranked 31st in the NFL in sacks. This is even more concerning given head coach Raheem Morris’ defensive background as well. The defense is not bereft of talent however as most of their starter’s grade in the above average range as NFL players and they do have some depth on the roster as well. The lack of success on the defensive side of the ball was primarily due to the fact that although the team had many good players, they lacked truly great players on their defensive roster. The lack of success can also be attributed to head coach Raheem Morris being in his first season with the team as well. I conducted an evaluation of each significant player on the defensive side of the ball for the Atlanta Falcons and assigned each player a grade based on their career statistical output along with factoring in subjective grades that were given to them by Pro Football Focus as well, which can be found below.
Front Seven Starters
LDE – Grady Jarrett – B+
NT – David Onyemata – B+
RDE – Zach Harrison – B
WLB – Matthew Judon – C+, free agent
LILB – Kaden Ellis – B+
RILB – Nate Landman – B-, free agent
SLB – Ebiketie – C+
Notable Front Seven Rotational Players/Reserves
ED – Ruke Orhorhoro – 2nd round 2024, C so far
Secondary Starters
LCB – A.J Terrell – B to B+
SS – Justin Simmons – B, free agent
FS – Jessie Bates III – B+
RCB – Mike Hughes – C+ to B-, free agent
NB – Dee Alford – C+ to B-, free agent
Notable Secondary Reserves/Rotational Players
CB – Clark Phillips III – B+
As you can see from the above data most of the Falcons defensive starters grade as good to very good players mostly ranging in the B range. However, none of their starters warranted being graded even in the A- range and certainly not higher than that. That combined with them still having multiple starters that grade as average if not below average players in the C+ range along with head coach Raheem Morris being in his first year with Atlanta. Is why their defensive output was average to below average this past season with them ranking 23rd in both points and yards allowed and ranking 16th in defense grade. The Falcons have very limited cap space that ranks in the bottom five of the NFL entering this offseason but with whatever cap space they have they should look to upgrade the defensive side of the ball with it. The Falcons are trying to build a team like Detroit and Philadelphia had this past season and from an offensive personnel and quarterback talent standpoint the Falcons are toe to toe with those two teams. However, the Eagles finished this past regular season as the number two scoring defense and the number one graded defense in the NFL. Before the Lions had a multitude of injuries on the defensive side of the ball they were graded as either the #1 or #2 defense in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus as well. The Falcons were not close to either one of those marks during the 2024 campaign. And as of now, unless they can add some high-end talent this offseason on the defensive side and/or if there is a substantial improvement with defensive minded head coach Raheem Morris going into year 2. Their projects to be a noticeable gap between the likes of the Eagles/Lions and the Atlanta Falcons on the defensive side of the ball.
The special teams play of the Atlanta Falcons was also a concern during the 2024 season as Pro Football Focus graded them as the 24th best special teams’ unit in professional football during the 2024 regular season. Kicker Younghoe Koo is inconsistent as a place kicker as in 4 of 7 seasons he has graded below average in terms of field goal kicking but has graded in the top 10 including being graded as high as #2 on one occasion as well. Punter Bradley Pinion is one of the premier punters in the NFL, however, grading as above average in every season he has played except for his first two seasons. Pinion has been graded in the top 10 on five different instances including the top 2 twice eliciting a #1 ranking on one instance as well.
Overall, with the Atlanta Falcons the 2025 season is one to be optimistic about as the franchise is entering a new era with now 2nd year quarterback Michael Penix Jr going into his first full season as starter. The Falcons are trying to emulate the Eagles and Lions with their roster construction in particular on the offensive side of the ball. As stated prior, the Eagles and Lions up until Detroit started to suffer massive injuries on defense were the two premier teams in the NFC if not the NFL. From an offensive personnel standpoint with regards to skill position players and offensive lineman the Falcons are in the same class with the Eagles and Lions as all three teams offensive personnel groupings are in the conversation for being the best in the sport. From a quarterback talent standpoint Penix Jr projects to be in the same class as Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff as a tier 2 level quarterback who perhaps cannot carry a team but has just as high of a ceiling as nearly any quarterback in the NFL. Penix Jr has yet to accumulate significant NFL snaps and in the small amount of time he did play he was relatively mundane as well. The Falcons coaching on the offensive side of the ball is also to be brought into question as they are the only one of the three teams who have a defensive minded head coach in an offense-oriented league. Morris is also the least proven out of the three as both Campbell and Srianni have reached a conference championship with the latter reaching Super Bowls. Although the Lions offensive coordinator spot is to be questioned with the departure of Ben Johnson, the Falcons offensive coordinator spot is an even bigger question mark as Zac Robinson is still totally unproven as an OC heading into year 2. The defensive side of the ball is the biggest concern however as the Eagles and Lions when they had healthy defenses this past season graded as the #1 and #2 defenses in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. With the Falcons ranking 16th in that same category in year 1 under Morris. I can certainly see the tea leaves of the Falcons being in the same class as Philadelphia/Detroit next season. But the defense will have to improve tremendously, which can certainly happen given the fact that defensive minded head coach Raheem Morris is headed into year 2 as the head coach of the franchise. The Falcons coaching on the offensive side of the ball will have to prove to be in the same class with the Eagles/Lions as well. With Zac Robinson, the unproven offensive coordinator going into year 2, along with defensive minded head coach Raheem Morris going into year 2 as well. Michael Penix Jr will also have to prove to be in the same class with Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts as well, which is also a big if, but from a raw talent standpoint he certainly has what it takes. The Eagles and Lions when healthy this past season were the two premier teams in the NFL and the Falcons from a quarterback talent standpoint and offensive personnel standpoint are 100% in their class heading into 2025. If the coaching staff and the defense can also prove to be in their class, then the Atlanta Falcons are certainly a bonafide Super Bowl threat in the NFC especially when you consider that the Falcons play in the weakest division in the NFC if not the NFL.
