The Miami Dolphins in the Mike McDaniel/Tua Tagovailoa era have consistently been a good to a really good but not a great team as of yet. In the first year of the Mike McDaniel era the Dolphins went 9-8 and snuck into the postseason before narrowly losing a playoff game by a field goal that Tua was unfortunately not able to participate in due to injury. The Dolphins improved on this a season later going 11-6 and making the postseason again until they were exposed come playoff time for being unable to play in the cold weather in a three-possession loss to the Chiefs. This past year injuries again plagued the injury prone starting quarterback Tagovailoa as he missed six starts where the Dolphins amassed a 2-4 record in his absence. The Dolphins were alive in the playoff race up until the final week of the regular season and Miami certainly could have easily made the postseason if Tua had stayed healthier or if the Dolphins had a more capable backup quarterback. With Tua healthy at the helm this season the Dolphins were a scary team but again were not quite a Super Bowl caliber team. There were five primary Super Bowl contenders this past season, Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore, Detroit, and Philadelphia. Outside of those five teams Miami consistently looked as good as any team in the NFL with Tagovailoa healthy. On the road vs the Los Angeles Rams who won their division the Dolphins led the entire game ultimately winning by a final score of 23-15. At home vs the Arizona Cardinals who were in the playoff race for most of the year and looked like a formidable team for most of the season, the Dolphins led the entire game up until Arizona kicked a game winning field goal as time expired to win by one point. A safety that Miami suffered in that game was the difference between winning and losing for the Dolphins. On the road vs the Buffalo Bills the Dolphins ended up losing a narrow game where the two teams traded scores by a final score of 30-27. Miami in my estimation could have escaped that game on the road with a win vs a bona-fide Super Bowl contender if the Dolphins had decided to throw the football more. As in that game Miami was throwing the ball at a tremendously high level but running the ball at an average level but the Dolphins still decided to run the ball more than pass it. Against the San Francisco 49ers at home who had an incredibly disappointing year but still are always formidable with the roster that John Lynch constructs and that head coach Kyle Shanahan coaches, the Dolphins ended up winning that game by multiple possessions at home. In two losses vs playoff teams Green Bay and Houston there were indeed some concerns but still positive takeaways. On the road in Green Bay where the Dolphins are notorious for underperforming in the cold weather, Miami did not do much to shred that reputation. Although the performance they put forth in that cold weather game was not atrocious by any stretch they still were not as good as one would otherwise be in more ideal conditions as Miami is indeed the most warm weather team in the NFL. However, there were still positive takeaways from that contest which can be described in the following fashion. Green Bay made the postseason and the Dolphins came up two possessions short to them on the road by a final score of 30-17. The two-possession deficit can be attributed to Miami muffing a punt inside their own 5-yard line which the Packers directly scored a touchdown off of a few plays later. As well as Miami having a 2nd and goal at the Green Bay 1 yard line and failing to score any points off of it. Miami muffing the punt gave Green Bay 7 points and Miami left 7 points on the board failing to score from the 1-yard line. Amounting to a total of a 14-point difference in a game that Miami ended up losing by 13 points. Against the Houston Texans the Dolphins lost by one possession on the road with Tua having one of the weakest games he has had in the NFL. Tua threw 3 interceptions and posted a very weak 4.9 yards per attempt along with a poor 60.0 passer rating. The Texans’ defense is known for causing performances like that out of opposing star quarterbacks, just ask Jared Goff and Josh Allen. However, it should come as somewhat of a good sign that Miami was still able to keep the game as close as it was despite Tua’s poor play. It should also come as a positive that the Dolphins played the Texans on the road in a very similar fashion to how the Bills and the Lions played the Texans on the road. With the Bills and Lions being two of the five primary Super Bowl contenders, Buffalo and Detroit also had their quarterback play very poor on the road vs the Texans and either won or lost the game by one possession just like Miami did. Miami played the Cardinals and Rams in a very similar fashion to how the Lions played both those two teams. The Lions were able to close out the Cardinals after leading the whole game, while the Dolphins suffered a last second loss to Arizona after leading the whole game. Both Detroit and Miami defeated the Rams, with Detroit leading for the vast majority of the game and Miami leading for the whole game. The Dolphins undoing this season primarily came as a result of star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa dealing with injuries as aforementioned. The Dolphins must do a better job of keeping Tua healthy next season by protecting him with an even better offensive line and not putting him in situations where he will be forced to run and not be able to slide which is what led to his first injury this past season.
The Dolphins primary plan this offseason should center around becoming a more physical football team. The Dolphins are a very finesse team and have been a very finesse team in the Mike McDaniel\Tua era. They have very fast athletic receivers, very fast athletic running backs, but who lack size and physicality. Wide receivers Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and running back Devon Achane, all rank among the fastest players at their respective positions but are all smaller and far less physical than many of the other marquee players at their respective positions. I have conducted a unit by unit analysis of Miami on the offensive end which can be found below. I have assigned each player a subjective grade that indicates how strong of players I deem them to be in totality based on yearly statistical output and yearly subjective grades given to them by Pro Football Focus.
Miami Key Offensive Lineman
LT – Terron Armstead – A to A- caliber, will likely retire
C – Aaron Brewer – B to B+ caliber
T – Austin Jackson – B to B-, solid backup tackle, 2020 first round pick
T – Patrick Paul – D+ so far as 2024 second round pick
-Remaining offensive lineman are all average to mediocre caliber NFL players
Miami Offensive Line Rankings over 2024 regular season
(21/32) in terms of pass blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus
(28/32) in terms of run blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus
17th in sacks allowed
5th in pass blocking efficiency
The Dolphins offensive line, which is the physical foundation of an offense, in this era with this respective coach/quarterback combination has been a below average to a well below average unit every single season for the past three years. The Dolphins offensive line in 2024 ranked (21/32) in terms of pass blocking grade and (28/32) in terms of run blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus. The offensive line has star left tackle Terron Armstead and center Aaron Brewer who both consistently rank among the better starters at their position in professional football. But Armstead might retire instead of playing in the 2025 season. Outside of that the offensive line is comprised of borderline starters who likely should be reserve offensive lineman. Miami drafted tackle Patrick Paul in the 2nd round of the 2024 draft but he has been a bust so far ranking among the worst players at his respective position in the limited snaps he has played thus far in the league. Miami should look to sign a viable free agent or two to bolster the offensive line this offseason while also hoping that 2024 second round pick Patrick Paul can start to play like a second-round pick. I have conducted a similar analysis of the teams skill position players which can be found below.
WR1 – Tyreek Hill – A to A+
WR2 – Jaylen Waddle – A to A-
TE1 – Jonnu Smith – Had an “A” year in 2024, but was an average player for all remaining 7 years prior however
HB1 – Devon Achane – A to A-
HB2 – Raheem Mostert -B+, free agent
HB3 – Jaylen Wright – B to B+ in limited snaps
-Remaining skill players for Miami are all average to mediocre caliber NFL players
The playing status of superstar wide out Tyreek Hill is certainly up in the air for the Dolphins next season as he did seem to indicate he wanted out of Miami after the Dolphins were eliminated from playoff contention. However, his agent has recently expressed that he is indeed committed to the Dolphins and a season ago Hill himself stated he wants to remain with Miami. Hill is in the definitive conversation for being the best wide out in the game so Miami should certainly emphasize retaining him this offseason. Hill along with Jaylen Waddle form one of the premier wide receiver tandems in the game of football and perhaps the fastest wide receiver tandem in the game of football. Running back Devon Achane is highly productive out of the backfield posting an astonishing and remarkable 7.9 yards per attempt on over 800 yards in the 2023 season. Compare that to the average of 4.3 rush yards per attempt in the 2023 season across the NFL. Achane is much more of a speed back than a power back as he does have a smaller build and is not as effective in goal line scenarios, i.e. Miami failing to score from the 1-yard line against Green Bay. Running backs Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright complement Achane out of the backfield and offer Miami a more physical dimension. Tight end Jonnu Smith was a pleasant surprise out of the tight end spot this season as he finished as being graded among the top five tight ends in the NFL while playing all seventeen games in the 2024 campaign. Smith had shown flashes of brilliance prior to this season but for the most part was just an anonymous average to a below average NFL player before breaking out in the 2024 season. If Jonnu Smith can keep this up next year then the combination of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith, and Devon Achane form one of the most formidable skill player groupings in professional football. As mentioned previously, the Dolphins lack physicality, as Hill, Waddle, and Achane are all very fast agile players who are among the smaller less physical players at their respective positions. Jonnu Smith at the tight end spot and number two running back Raheem Mostert provided some physicality for the Dolphins on the offensive side. But overall, the Dolphins as of now remain a very finesse agile offense that is perhaps a bit soft and unphysical. This “softness” is further emphasized by the weak offensive line play, Tua having one of the weaker NFL arms, Tua being perhaps the most injury prone starting quarterback, him lacking the ability to do damage in the ground game, and nearly all the Dolphins primary players on offense being undersized. Miami should look to bolster the offensive line this offseason in addition to adding a more durable QB2 who perhaps can do some damage in the running game. In order to become a more physical offense that complements the finesse portion of Miami’s offensive attack which should be noted ranks up there with any team in the NFL with regards to the speed, athleticism, and agility Miami is able to produce on the offensive side of the ball.
The production and prowess on the offensive side of the ball for the Dolphins will more-so come down to offensive minded head coach Mike McDaniel and starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa more-so than it will come down to the remaining players on the offensive side. Mike McDaniel has proven to be a fine offensive mind as the head coach of the Dolphins but it remains to be seen whether or not he is in the class with the Kyle Shanahan’s, Sean McVay’s, and Andy Reid’s of the world as an offensive mind. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a former top five pick, is one of the most smart, accurate throwers of the football in the game today. However, questions are to be asked in regards to him being undersized, him having an average to a below average arm, him being perhaps the most injury prone starting quarterback, and him being unable to produce in cold weather games. Tua when healthy this season had statistical production that ranked up there with any starting quarterback in the NFL as he led the NFL in completion percentage and ranked sixth among all starters in terms of passer rating when he did play. Similar to head coach Mike McDaniel no one questions whether or not either individual is a capable NFL caliber head coach or starting quarterback. But questions are to be asked about whether or not the two can take Miami to the next level as a true Super Bowl contender and whether or not either one of the two gives the Dolphins something special at the head coach and quarterback positions that other teams don’t have and that delineates them from other teams. As the head coach and quarterback combination of McDaniel and Tua has yet to even win a postseason game as of yet.
On the defensive side of the ball a similar story persists where the Dolphins do indeed possess some high-end talent but they are just very unphysical and finesse in large part. I have conducted a similar analysis of the team on the defensive end just like I did for the offense.
Dolphins Key Front Seven Players
DL – Zach Sieler – B+ to A-
DL – Calais Campbell – B+ to A-, free agent may retire
ED – Bradley Chubb – B+ to A-, missed all of 2024 due to injury
ED – Jaelan Phillips – B+ to A-, missed most of last two seasons due to injury
ED – Chop Robinson – B to B+ in his rookie season as a 2024 first rounder
LB – Jordyn Brooks – B-, former first rounder in 2020
ED – Dashawn Hand – B, one of the better reserve/rotational defensive lineman in the sport
LB – Cameron Goode – Very effective in limited snaps
-Remaining players in Dolphins front seven are all average to mediocre NFL players
Dolphins Key Secondary Players
CB – Kendall Fuller – A-
SS – Jordan Poyer – B, free agent
FS – Jevon Holland – B+ to A-, free agent
CB – Jalen Ramsey – A
S – Marcus Maye – B, one of the better reserve defensive backs in NFL
CB – Cam Smith – 2023 second round pick but has been a bust so far but still potential
-Remaining players in Dolphins secondary are all average to mediocre NFL players
2024 Dolphins Defensive Rankings
10th in points per game allowed
4th in yards per game allowed
17th in defense grade according to Pro Football Focus
The Dolphins emphasized secondary play which is primarily the finesse aspect of a defense over the front seven which is primarily the physical aspect of a team’s defense. The Dolphins had some talent in their front seven this past season but struggled with injuries and inexperience. The Dolphins main edge rusher Bradley Chubb did not log any snaps during the 2024 season as he was still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered during the 2023 season. The Dolphins number two edge rusher Jaelen Phillips suffered a season ending injury for the second straight season. Miami drafted edge rusher Chop Robinson in the first round of the 2024 draft and he had a solid rookie season but has still yet to come into his own as a result of the lack of experience. The Dolphins are optimistic that Chubb and Phillips can be healthy next year and Chop Robinson can take the next step in his development. The lack of healthy edge rushers and Robinson being a rookie came back to haunt Miami as the Dolphins finished 20th in pass rushing grade this past season and finished 27th in terms of sacks accumulated. The lack of pass rush from the defensive front, which is the physical aspect of a team’s defense, and the lack of durability also go hand in hand with the thinking that the Dolphins are just a very finesse soft team. It is unlikely that the Dolphins are as beat up on the defensive front for a third season in a row and 2024 first rounder Chop Robinson will likely take the next step in his sophomore campaign so the Dolphins pass rush will be more adept in 2025. Defensive lineman Calais Campbell, who finished graded as one of the top 10 interior defensive lineman a season ago is an unrestricted free agent and could very well retire, however. If Campbell were to decide to continue playing, retaining him on the defensive front should be a priority for Miami this offseason as the future hall of famer was still amongst the best players at his position this past season. The Dolphin’s run defense was the aspect of the front seven that was a redeeming quality as the Dolphins ranked 9th in rush yards per game allowed and Pro Football Focus graded the Dolphins as having the 7th best run defense in the NFL this past season. However, the “soft” theme with regards to Miami’s defense this past season unfortunately continues to persist as Pro Football Focus graded the Dolphins as tied for being the worst tackling team in the NFL this past season.
The secondary for the Dolphins is the strong suit of the defense as Miami has three “A” caliber players in their back end in Kendall Fuller, Jevon Holland, and Jalen Ramsey. Jordan Poyer is the remaining primary starter in the back end and he is above average at his position as well. Poyer and Holland are both free agents entering the 2025 offseason and Miami should look to retain both, especially Holland who ranks among the best safeties in professional football. Miami this past season allowed the 10th lowest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks which shows how talented the secondary is given the fact that Miami’s pass rush this past season was among the weakest in the NFL ranking 27th in sacks accumulated. If Miami can retain Holland and Poyer or find an adequate replacement for Poyer, the secondary should be just as effective next season. If the Dolphins can just figure out a way to produce an average to an above average pass rush which is not anything close to what they produced this past season, then Miami’s pass defense should be among the more formidable pass defenses heading into 2025.
The Dolphins heading into the 2025 season are one of the most intriguing teams in professional football. With Tua Tagovailoa healthy the Dolphins looked like a Super Bowl caliber team for stretches as their play in large part mirrored that of Super Bowl contenders Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills for previously highlighted reasons. With Tua healthy there are only a handful of teams I would favor more than the Miami Dolphins in all honesty. If Tua had played more snaps or if the Dolphins had a more viable backup quarterback situation then the Dolphins would have absolutely made the postseason in the 2024 campaign and they would have absolutely been a threat to win the AFC. But perhaps not a favorite to win the AFC because of Tua’s lack of next end talent and Miami’s inability to play in cold inclement weather. Heading into the offseason Miami should like to resign some of the marquee free agents on their squad such as Jevon Holland, Jordan Poyer, and Calais Campbell in addition to retaining Tyreek Hill and convincing Terron Armstead to not retire. Miami should also look into becoming a more physical football team by bolstering their line play on both sides of the football. Additionally, Miami should also look into acquiring the likes of a high-end backup quarterback along the lines of a Justin Fields or a Daniel Jones as an insurance policy for Tua who is very likely to get injured along with bolstering the offensive line to protect Tua from potential injuries even further. Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver will head into his second full season as the defensive play caller for the Dolphins and Miami’s defense can expect to improve as a result especially if they bolster their defensive line play and retain some of the key secondary free agents.
The Dolphins with Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa consistently play right with the likes of the Buffalo Bills but consistently fail to beat them amassing a 1-8 record vs the Bills in division. If the Dolphins can match the Bills physicality by bolstering their line play as the Bills are typically a very physical team that runs the ball with Josh Allen and has strong defensive line play as well, that narrative could certainly change. The Patriots in the division are rebuilding although headed in the right direction with Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel, and the Jets are in no mans land as a franchise at this point. If Miami can address the weaknesses on their roster in an appropriate way, then the Dolphins can certainly be a legitimate contender in the AFC next season. Tua just needs to stay healthy and the Dolphins must adapt to playing in the cold inclement weather as those two things have led to the Dolphins season ending in the first three years of the Mike McDaniel/Tua Tagovailoa era in Miami.
