The Bills are one of the most interesting teams heading into next season as they are entering a new era led by head coach Joe Brady while keeping superstar quarterback Josh Allen. Allen is likely the best overall QB in the sport as of now and the clock is ticking on the Bills’ Super Bowl hopes as he will play next season at the age of 30. The Bills had a good run last season, but it ended in disappointment as Buffalo saw a divisional round playoff exit. Typically, when the Bills had lost in the postseason previously it was not Allen’s fault at QB, but this time Allen was the primary reason Buffalo exited the playoffs. As Allen turned the ball over 4 times and missed open receivers on crucial drives. The Bills have since moved off former head coach Sean McDermott and have promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to the head coaching spot. It remains to be seen if Brady will be an upgrade over McDermott and if the Bills can now get over the hump. Here I will go into detail assessing the Bills on the offensive side of the ball as the season is set to start.
Joe Brady has an offensive background compared to Buffalo’s previous coach in McDermott having a defensive background. At first, I did not like the move as I felt that Allen was an elite QB and the offense was in good hands already and getting an offensive minded head coach was excess and the team should prioritize the defensive side of the ball instead. I also felt as if the hire of Joe Brady was the team settling for an in-house candidate once they had moved off McDermott with all the top candidates already off the market. But now I have since warmed up to the idea of Joe Brady being the new head coach of the Bills. Although I still prefer the Brady-Belichick formula of the elite QB being paired with the defensive minded head coach, one cannot deny the benefits of pairing a QB with a brilliant offensive minded head coach. Which is evidenced by the Chiefs’ dynasty with Mahomes/Reid, the 49ers’ dynasty led by Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, and Steve Young, along with offensive minded head coaches having won 6 of the last 7 Super Bowls.
Heading into next season, I strongly feel as if the Bills will have the premier offense in the AFC if not the NFL. As stated previously, one would be hard pressed to argue that as of now, Josh Allen is not the premier QB in the game of football. As the likes of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert struggle too much with injuries and/or postseason performance. Patrick Mahomes is currently injured and has looked pretty average for the past 2+ seasons in a row now. While the likes of Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are still too young and unproven. While although Jalen Hurts and Sam Darnold have won Super Bowl titles, they are not thought of as elite players at the position. In addition to Allen, the Bills’ offensive personnel is arguably elite and nearly as good as any in the sport. Below I will take a deep dive into Buffalo’s offensive personnel surrounding Allen heading into next season before the draft is set to start.
The Bills’ offensive line is one of the premier units as of now and I struggle to think of many offensive lines I would take over the Bills’. Although Buffalo lacks a true superstar on the offensive front in the Trent Williams mold, their offensive line has no holes and is comprised of several very good players. In an analysis I did of the Bills’ offensive personnel, I assigned each player a subjective letter grade after doing a review of their statistics and subjective grades assigned to them by Pro Football Focus over the course of their careers. I graded four of the Bills’ current five offensive line starters to be in the B+ range. Although their remaining starter at left guard in O’Cyrus Torrence received a grade of just a C, he is still an improving young player who was drafted very highly in the 2nd round. The Bills are also very deep on the offensive line as well, as they have one backup tackle that I graded to be in the B+ range and one backup guard I graded to be in the B+ range as well. Two very capable backups on the exterior and the interior in the reserve unit of Buffalo’s offensive front. Buffalo also had two more reserve offensive line players I graded to be in the C+ to B- range, possessing high end capabilities and being potential borderline NFL starters and certainly more than capable backups. The only weak link on the Bills’ offensive front is their current listed starter at left guard in O’Cyrus Torrence who as aforementioned is still improving and has shown some promise as a former 2nd round pick. Torrence, if he does not improve, will likely be replaced on the Bills’ starting offensive line by one of the highly capable backups that Buffalo has. As aforementioned, the Bills lack superstar A level players on their offensive line which keeps the Bills from being discussed as perhaps the premier line in the NFL. However, the Bills’ offensive line is one of the most complete and deep in the NFL and is certainly one of the best in the sport as of now.
From a skill position player standpoint, the Bills have some talent as well. The design of the team being comprised of several good to very good players and depth without the presence of a true superstar continues to persist in the Bills’ skill position unit as it did with the offensive line of the team. At running back, the team is led by veteran James Cook who I graded to be in the B+ range who is consistently among the better players at his position, but who is never discussed as amongst the premier backs in the league. Buffalo has two solid players behind him in Ty Johnson, who I graded to be in the C+ to B- range, along with Ray Davis, who I graded to be in the B to B+ range. Ray Davis, in relatively limited snaps has looked very strong for the Bills and certainly has what it takes to be a starter and is one of the premier reserve backs in the sport as of now.
At the tight end spot, the Bills have one of the premier units in the sport and they do have potential A level superstars although no surefire ones. Former first round pick Dalton Kincaid leads the tight end unit for the Bills and is potentially an emerging superstar at the position. Kincaid has graded in the top six among all qualified tight ends according to Pro Football Focus for the past two seasons in a row now. Kincaid has star potential but has not shown that star potential for extended action, as Kincaid in both of those seasons failed to even reach 600 receiving yards either year. Former third round pick Dawson Knox serves as the primary backup to Kincaid at tight end but has underwhelmed in his career although showing capabilities from time to time. I graded Knox to be in the C to C+ range as a tight end as for the most part he has been below average in his career, although having a few seasons where he graded in the above average range. 2025 5th rounder Jackson Hawes in limited rookie snaps looked spectacular, Hawes graded 2nd out of all qualified tight ends in his rookie season, albeit just catching 16 balls. 2025 undrafted free agent Keleki Latu rounds out the Bills’ current tight end unit and also looked very strong in very limited rookie action. Latu graded (14/47) among all qualified tight ends in his rookie season according to Pro Football Focus albeit just having 4 receptions. The Bills’ tight end unit has a very strong argument for being the best overall tight end unit in the sport as of now.
At wide receiver, the Bills’ had their misgivings this past season as the unit lacked the presence of a true number one wideout. The team had yet to replace the lost production of former star receiver Stefon Diggs, while former 2nd round pick Keon Coleman had a sophomore slump rookie season trying to take his place. Heading into next season, the team is better suited in the unit as they have brought on a big-name veteran, and I believe Coleman will improve as well. The team has onboarded former Bears’ and Panthers’ standout wide receiver DJ Moore to assume the team’s #1 wide receiver role. Moore, the former first rounder, has consistently been among the better wide receivers in the sport on a year-in-year-out basis. Moore has never been confused for being a superstar, having never even made a pro bowl in his career. However, the QB play that Moore has received in his career with the Panthers at the tail end of Cam Newton’s run there and with the Bears with the inconsistent Caleb Williams has been questionable. Perhaps now that Moore is paired with a true consistent superstar QB in Josh Allen, he can emerge as a household name at the wide receiver position. Moore is also perhaps the most durable receiver in the sport, having missed only two games in his entire eight-year NFL career. However, Moore is coming off a career worst season, and it remains to be seen if he can recapture his old form, although I think he should as he will play next year at just 29 years old.
Continuing at the wide receiver position the Bills have the likes of Khalil Shakir, who assumed the team’s leading wide receiver spot a season ago, in line to supplement Moore in the unit. Shakir with a smaller frame is likely better suited not being a number one wide out but rather a very strong #2 or #3 wide receiver who does damage in the slot and in the underneath passing game. As opposed to being forced into a true #1 wide receiver role as he was this past season. Shakir is consistently a strong player who I graded to be in the B to B+ range in totality, perhaps Shakir can now truly come into his own in a #2 wide out role next to DJ Moore.
From a depth standpoint at the wide out position the Bills have a few players of note in former 2nd rounders MeCole Hardman Jr and Keon Coleman. Both Hardman Jr and Coleman were drafted very highly and have a ton of talent, but both have underwhelmed in their careers, but both have shown they can live up to their high draft billing over the years as well. Buffalo will be reliant upon either or both players to play to their talent level in the case of injuries to Moore and/or Shakir. If Coleman and/or Hardman Jr can play to their potential, there is no reason that either or both cannot be just as good if not better than Moore/Shakir. With either Coleman/Hardman being in line to be very strong #3 wide outs as well. The likes of Tyrell Shavers and Joshua Palmer are solid backups as well who I both graded to be in the C to C+ range as overall players.
From an offensive perspective, I like the Bills just as much if not more than any AFC team as of now. I just trust Josh Allen to stay healthier than Joe Burrow, and I trust the Bills’ offensive line more than the Bengals’ offensive line. With the Bills’ overall ceiling as an offense being just as high as the Bengals in my estimation. I like Josh Allen to produce for his offense in the postseason more than Lamar Jackson of the Ravens. Although I will acknowledge that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense likely has a higher ceiling. I like the Bills’ offense slightly more than New England’s as I feel from a personnel standpoint the teams are about even. But the Bills have a head coach with an offensive background and the more proven experienced and slightly more talented veteran QB as well. I like the Bills on offense more than the Jaguars primarily because I will still take Josh Allen over Trevor Lawrence 99 times out of 100 and from a personnel standpoint the teams are about even with both teams having young offensive minded head coaches. I like the Bills’ offense as of now more than the Chiefs because the Chiefs’ offense led by Mahomes has looked pretty average for the past two seasons in a row now. I will take the Bills’ offense over the Chargers as Herbert has consistently underwhelmed in the playoffs and the Chargers’ personnel on offense is not as good as the Bills’. I like the Bills’ offense more than Denver’s as I feel as if Josh Allen is likely the best overall QB in the sport as of now whereas I feel as if Bo Nix is not even a surefire NFL starter as of now. The only offense in the AFC I might prefer more than the Bills as of now would be the Colts, but even that is neck and neck. While there is absolutely no debate at all in my mind between Daniel Jones of the Colts and Josh Allen at QB.
The success that the Bills see on offense will be mostly contingent upon how good new offensive minded head coach Joe Brady is. If Brady is the sharp young McVay/Kyle Shanahan type of offensive mind, then Buffalo will have maybe the premier offense in the sport. However, I certainly imagine that Brady will see his growing pains as a rookie head coach. The Bills also have hired Pete Carmichael to be their offensive coordinator this upcoming season, and he will be entering his first season with the Bills. Carmichael served as the offensive coordinator with Drew Brees/Sean Payton in New Orleans for fifteen seasons. Carmichael is certainly one of the most qualified/established offensive coordinators in the business and it will be interesting to see how he works with star QB Josh Allen. Joe Brady’s lack of experience as a rookie offensive minded head coach will be offset to a certain extent by the presence of the veteran Carmichael. As Carmichael has more years under his belt as an offensive coordinator in the NFL than any other current offensive coordinator in the NFL. The Saints’ offense in the Sean Payton era in elevating a below average talent in Drew Brees to hall of fame all time caliber status was amongst the greatest coached offenses in league history. Carmichael, as the offensive coordinator for that offense for 15 years, was one of the primary cogs of that offensive scheme which was amongst the greatest in football history.
The Bills regardless of how healthy their offensive roster stays within reason, and regardless of how good of a head coach Joe Brady proves to be in his rookie season, will be amongst the premier offensive teams in the sport, with Josh Allen healthy. Whether or not the Bills can be the premier offense in the AFC if not in the NFL, with Allen healthy, will be mostly contingent upon how good of a head coach Joe Brady is, and how good he will be in his rookie season.
