Heading into the 2024 campaign with rookie quarterback Bo Nix and head coach Sean Payton the Broncos were a team that I did not expect much of. Nix fell to number 12 in the draft for a reason and the team was an average team the prior season finishing with a meager 8-9 record. The team, however, was a pleasant surprise this past season amassing a 10-7 record and making the postseason. The team’s run however as a seven seed who needed a win in week 18 in order to make the playoffs to begin with was indeed short lived as they suffered a blowout loss on the road to the Buffalo Bills by a final score of 31-7. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix played well in his first year in the NFL posting a passer rating of 93.3 which ranked 18th out of 44 qualified quarterbacks, Nix was also among the more effective quarterbacks in terms of running ability amounting the 8th most rushing yards among all quarterbacks. It remains to be seen how much Nix will progress in his 2nd year in the NFL with Sean Payton but he is unequivocally the future of the Denver Broncos at the quarterback spot.
2024 was mostly a defensive story for the Broncos as Denver ranked among the best defensive teams in the NFL this past season. In the regular season the Broncos defense finished as the third best scoring defense in professional football while also leading the NFL in sacks. Pro Football Focus graded the Broncos as having the 4th best defense in the NFL this past regular season as well. The Broncos defensive starting roster has 4 free agents but Denver has over 50 million in cap space so the Broncos can certainly resign and/or find adequate replacements for said players. With none of those players being elite players on the Broncos side as well. The Broncos defense, with the limited free agents they have on their roster combined with the strong amount of cap space that the team possesses, is primed to perform at just as optimal if not a more optimal level in the 2025 campaign. The Broncos unfortunately ran into a buzzsaw in their wild card matchup named Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills where their defense let up 31 points in a three-possession loss. The output on the defensive side of the ball for the Broncos outperformed their talent as in my personal assessment of each player on the defensive side of the ball the Broncos defense from a talent standpoint was far from a top defense in terms of talent which is where they finished in terms of points allowed in the regular season. This further shows how smart of a defensive mind Vance Joseph is coordinating the Broncos defense. Denver’s relative lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball was indeed exposed in their postseason loss to the Bills. As great coaching can only overcome a lack of talent to a certain extent and a lack of talent is eventually exposed vs all-time great quarterback talents such as Josh Allen. My personal breakdown of the talent that the Broncos have on the defensive end can be found below. With me assigning each significant player on the defensive end for Denver a grade that indicates how strong of players they are in totality. This subjective grade is based on their year-by-year statistical output and subjective grades that have been assigned to them by Pro Football Focus.
ED – Zach Allen – B-
NT – D.J Jones – C+, free agent
ED – Franklin-Myers – B+
LB – Bonitto – B-
LB – Strand – C+
LB – Barton – C+, free agent
LB – Cooper – B to B-
CB – Surtain II – B+ to A-
SS – Brandon Jones – B+
FS – Locke – C+ to B-
CB – Moss – B
NB – McMillian – C+ to B-, free agent
As is seen from the above data the Broncos defensive personnel was solid to good but not anything to write home about. With defensive coordinator Vance Joseph deserving a ton of credit for Denver’s defense finishing in the top 3 in the NFL despite them having relatively average talent on the defensive end. As aforementioned, their lack of talent was eventually exposed in a postseason loss to the Buffalo Bills. Denver having over 50 million in cap space and not needing to pay quarterback Bo Nix in the immediate future should look to upgrade their talent on the defensive side from good to great so their defense can take the next step.
On the offensive side of the ball the Broncos ranked as the number 10 scoring offense in the NFL led by aforementioned rookie quarterback Bo Nix and Sean Payton. A full breakdown of Denver’s key offensive personnel can be found below similar to what I did for the defense.
LT – Garrett Bolles – B+ to A-
LG – Ben Powers – B+
C – Wattenberg – C
RG – Meinerz – A to A-
RT – McGlinchey – B to B+
WR1 – Sutton – B+
WR2 – Vele – B to B+
TE1 – Trautman – C to C+
HB1 – Javonte Williams – C to C+, free agent
HB2 – McLaughlin – C+
The offensive line was the strong suit for the Denver Broncos as the unit ranked among the best in the NFL. Pro Football Focus graded the Broncos offensive line #1 in terms of pass blocking grade and as the #10 offensive line in terms of run blocking grade in the NFL this past regular season. Additionally, the Broncos offensive line ranked 1st in the NFL in terms of pass blocking efficiency and allowed the 4th fewest sacks in the regular season. None of the five starters on the Denver offensive line are slated to become free agents this offseason so the line should be able to maintain just as strong of a level of play heading into next season. The skill players of Denver were the weak point on the offensive side of the ball this past season. Denver’s top two wideouts in Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vele are good above average players but are not to be confused with great players by any stretch of the imagination. Denver’s tight end play ranked among the worst in professional football this past season as they failed to have a player log even 20 receptions or 200 yards this past season. Compare that to the division rival Chiefs who had two players log over 400 yards and 40 receptions each. The lackluster receiving core for the Denver Broncos is evidenced by the fact that Pro Football Focus graded their receiving core as being #27 in the NFL this past regular season. The running back unit for the Denver Broncos is also a weak point of the team as all three primary backs have graded as average to below average players for their careers up until 2024. With all three backs having below average years this past year for the Broncos as well. As all three running backs graded as below average in terms of an offense grade according to Pro Football Focus for the 2024 campaign. #1 running back Javonte Williams has shown some promise throughout the course of his career and is now set to be a free agent. With Nix heading into year 2 it would behoove Denver with the cap space they have to upgrade their skill players who are amongst the weakest in the NFL. As aforementioned Denver’s receiving grade was (27/32) and Denver was also graded (28/32) in terms of a running grade by Pro Football Focus.
The Broncos starting five on the offensive line ranks up there with any team in the NFL. They have two solid receivers to complement it but the tight end unit and the running back unit of the Denver Broncos is amongst the weakest in the NFL if not the weakest in the NFL. With the two primary receivers being good to really good players but certainly not great players who can mask the weaknesses at tight end and running back. As neither wide out is a true number one wideout in my estimation. The Broncos with their over 50 million in cap space which ranks 13th in the NFL should look to add skill players to help Bo Nix and to complement the elite Denver offensive line. The way the Broncos are building their team is akin to how the Philadelphia Eagles are building their team. By having elite top 5 defenses, an elite offensive line which is in the definitive conversation for being the best offensive line in the game, and a tier 2 quarterback who utilizes his legs quite a bit. This season Denver has made some strides in replicating Philadelphia who won the Super Bowl. The way they have made those strides is by having a defense that was top 3 in scoring just like the Eagles had. By having an offensive line that is in the definitive conversation for being the best in the league as both the Eagles and Denver fielded lines of that caliber this past season. Bo Nix has shown that although he may not ever be in the same class as the Patrick Mahomes’ and Lamar Jackson’s of the world, but that he can be in the next class of NFL QBs just like Jalen Hurts of the Eagles is. With both quarterbacks utilizing their legs in the ground game quite a bit and both not being of ideal height but certainly not being undersized as both stand 6 foot 2. Whatever gap there is between Nix and Hurts in terms of raw strength and foot speed where Hurts has the edge, is made up for in that Nix possesses a stronger arm. The difference between Philadelphia winning the Super Bowl while amassing a 14-3 record and Denver only winning 10 games and being blown out in the wild card round can be explained in the following fashion. Both teams had elite top 5 scoring defenses but the Eagles defense was slightly better from the standpoint of Philadelphia finished with the number two scoring defense and Denver finished with the number three scoring defense, .5 points ahead of the Broncos. Philadelphia’s defense finished the regular season as being the number one graded defense in the NFL this regular season nearly a full 11 points ahead of the number two spot according to Pro Football Focus. Whereas Denver finished having the number four graded defense this regular season jumbled in with many other teams in terms of an overall defense grade according to Pro Football Focus. The Eagles separated from the rest of the NFL in terms of a defense grade this past season according to Pro Football Focus. Nix, although I don’t see much if any of a talent gap between him and the likes of Jalen Hurts, was still a rookie this past season whereas Hurts has been in the league for some time now. Nix’s inexperience was exposed in the Broncos postseason loss to the Bills as he managed to only produce 7 points for Denver offensively. Additionally, the biggest delineation between the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles and Denver Broncos came from the Eagles combination of skill players being amongst the elite ones if not the elite one in the NFL. Whereas the Broncos skill players ranked among the weakest in the NFL if not the weakest in the NFL. If Denver wishes to take the next step to being on the Eagles level next season, they will need to upgrade their skill players greatly and they will need to take their already elite defense up a notch or two. I was very disappointed with how Denver looked this past postseason in their loss to the Buffalo Bills as I expected the Broncos to put up a better fight than that in their 31-7 blowout loss in the wild card round. However, Nix’s inexperience, the lack of skill position players on offense, and the relative lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball juxtaposed to their output, ultimately did the Broncos in. All of that combined with playing a stout Bills team on the road. Next season if Nix can continue to progress and if the Broncos can address the aforementioned weak points on the roster, the Broncos can certainly make the postseason again. However, given how strong the rest of the AFC is and how weak the Broncos looked in their sole postseason game I am reluctant to say that they will be able to make a deep playoff run or contend to win the conference/Super Bowl in 2025. In the AFC west I still prefer the combination of both Mahomes/Reid and Herbert/Harbaugh over the likes of Nix/Payton. I prefer both fellow AFC West quarterbacks over Nix at this point and I prefer both fellow AFC West coaches over Sean Payton at this point as well. There are also four truly elite quarterbacks in the game today who all play in the AFC in Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. I do not feel as if Nix is close to joining that group as of now and I do feel as if he will rather be a tier 2 or a tier 3 caliber of quarterback for the duration of his career instead. Whereas fellow AFC West Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has the raw talent to join that group and I do not feel the same about Nix at this point.
