The Bills in the Sean McDermott – Josh Allen era have consistently been one of the primary contenders to win it all on a year-to-year basis but have failed to get over the hump. Bills head coach Sean McDermott stated that it is only a matter of when not if the Bills win the Super Bowl with Josh Allen at the helm. I tend to agree with that sentiment for the most part as Josh Allen is one of the premier quarterback talents the game has ever seen and he doesn’t struggle with injuries or performance in the postseason. The Chiefs are still the dynasty of the NFL and the Bills come within inches of beating them in the postseason on a year-to-year basis. Them getting over the hump of the Chiefs in the playoffs almost feels inevitable at some point. As they have come so close to doing so on numerous occasions and they have also beat them in the regular season with regularity as well. No one questions Josh Allen as a quarterback as he is unequivocally one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL today and many say that is he only #2 to Mahomes in the league currently. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is obviously a very bright defensive mind but his seat is unequivocally getting warmer for more than a few reasons. I could certainly see a scenario in where the Bills are in the Super Bowl next season as they came so close to reaching it last year. However, even if they were to make the championship, beating likely Philadelphia or Detroit would be a tall ask as those two teams seem to be a cut above the Bills and seem to also be a cut above the rest of the NFL as of now.
On the offensive side of the ball the Bills were one of the premier teams in the NFL this past season and their offensive ranks for the 2024 season can be found below.
Bills 2024 Offensive Ranks
Points Per Game – 2nd
Yards Per Game – 10th
Overall Offense Grade According to Pro Football Focus – 8th
I have conducted a unit-by-unit analysis of the Bills on the offensive side of the ball beginning with the offensive line. I have included the offense grade that each player was assigned over the course of the 2024 season along with a subjective grade as well. This subjective grade that I have assigned them indicates how strong of players I deem them to be in totality outside of just 2024. That subjective evaluation is based upon yearly statistical output and yearly subjective grades given to them by Pro Football Focus as well. Below all that I have included the key offensive line grades and statistics for the Bills as well.
Bills 2024 Offensive Line Starters
LT – Dion Dawkins – (33/87) offense grade in 2024 over 959 snaps, B to B+
LG – David Edwards – (44/83) offense grade in 2024 over 975 snaps, C+ to B-
C – Connor McGovern – (11/43) offense grade in 2024 over 959 snaps, C+ to B-
RG – O’Cyrus Torrence – (69/83) offense grade in 2024 over 1011 snaps, C
RT – Spencer Brown – (32/87) offense grade in 2024 over 930 snaps, C+ to B-
Bills Remaining Offensive Lineman
T – Tylan Grable – (73/87) offense grade in 2024 over 74 snaps, C to C-
G/C – Alec Anderson – (10/43) offense grade in 2024 over 290 snaps, B+
C – Sedrick Van Pran-Granger – (42/43) offense grade in 2024 over 120 snaps, D to D+
G – Kendrick Green – (80/87) offense grade in 2024 over 178 snaps for Texans, C
T – Ryan Van Demark – (73/87) offense grade in 2024 over 199 snaps, C
T – Travis Clayton – 0 career snaps
G – Mike Edwards – 0 career snaps
T – Richard Gouraige – 3 career snaps
G – Will Clapp – (76/83) offense grade in 2024 over 67 snaps, D+ to C-, now on Saints
Bills 2024 Offensive Line Ranks
1st in sacks allowed
4th in pass blocking efficiency
5th in pass blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus
17th in run blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus
As you can see from the above data the Bills had one of the premier offensive lines in the NFL last season and one of the premier if not the premier pass protecting unit. However, too much stock should not be put into the Bills ranking so highly in terms of pass protection although it is indeed a sign of something good. If you look at the player-by-player analysis I conducted of the Bills one would certainly surmise that they have a pretty average offensive line. Although the Bills are indeed stout in terms of pass protection up front, Josh Allen being arguably the hardest quarterback in the NFL to bring down for sacks and him getting rid of the ball quickly certainly contributed to their top 5 ranking in all three of the major pass protecting categories. In terms of run blocking, the average nature of the Bills offensive line indeed showed as Josh Allen could not necessarily bolster their standing in that regard. The five offensive line starters the Bills had last season project to be the same five starters heading into next season. Interior offensive lineman Alec Anderson who was undrafted in the 2022 draft and who logged his first career NFL snaps during the 2024 season looked very strong last year. Albeit in a limited sample size of not even 300 snaps he still ranked in the top 10 in terms of offense grade among qualified players at his position. If he can maintain that level of play, he can perhaps take the next step to becoming a starter and he at the very least can be a high-end backup for the team. I have conducted a similar analysis of the team’s key skill position players which can be found below
Bills Skill Position Players
HB – James Cook – (12/57) offense grade in 2024 in 16 games, B to B+
HB – Ray Davis – (25/57) offense grade in 2024 in 17 games, B to B-
HB – Ty Johnson – (22/57) offense grade in 2024 in 17 games, C+ to B-
HB – Darrynton Evans – (57/57) offense grade in 2024 in 1 game, D+
WR – Mack Hollins – (92/110) offense grade in 2024 in 17 games, C, now on Patriots
WR – Keon Coleman – (61/110) offense grade in 2024 in 14 games, C+ so far as 2024 2nd rounder
WR – Khalil Shakir – (28/110) offense grade in 2024 in 15 games, B to B+
WR – Curtis Samuel – (86/110) offense grade in 2024 in 14 games, C+ to B-
WR – Amari Cooper – (62/110) offense grade in 2024 in 14 games, C+ to B-, free agent
WR – Jalen Virgil – 2 career rec
WR – Marquez Valdes Scantling – (88/110) offense grade in 2024 in 8 games, now on Seahawks
WR – Tyrell Shavers – 1 career rec
WR – Laviska Shenault – (107/110) offense grade in 2024 in 10 games for LAC and SEA, C to C+
WR – Joshua Palmer – (64/110) offense grade in 2024 in 15 games, C
WR – K.J Hamler – DNP in 2024 D+ to C-
TE – Dawson Knox – (40/45) offense grade in 2024 in 15 games, C to C+
TE – Dalton Kincaid – (6/45) offense grade in 2024 in 13 games, B+ to A-
TE – Zach Davidson – 1 career rec
TE – Armani Rogers – 5 career rec
FB – Reggie Gilliam – 6 career rush attempt and 14 career receptions
TE – Quintin Morris – 5 receptions in 2024, now free agent
The Bills were primarily led by tight end Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook who both consistently rank among the better if not among the best players at their respective positions. Khalil Shakir is also very productive as a wide out leading the team in receiving yards last season accumulating over 800 and ranking above average to well above average in terms of an offense grade. Keon Coleman, who was the first pick of the 2nd round in the 2024 draft, had a solid rookie campaign amassing over 500 receiving yards on a remarkable 19.2 yards per reception which ranked top 5 among all wide outs. Coleman, however, has a lot of room to still improve as he had a relatively meager offense grade and did not even reach the 600-yard mark. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson provided the Bills with some depth out of the backfield as both ranked above average in terms of offense grade last season. Amari Cooper was acquired midseason but the 5-time pro bowler seemed to be slightly over the hill although he was able to give the Bills some decent production. Cooper ranked slightly below average in terms of an offense grade in his time with the Bills and is now a free agent. From a skill position standpoint, the Bills are consistently strong across the board but not elite. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is the best skill position player the Bills possess and is amongst the best tight ends in the NFL. However, he is not quite in that group with George Kittle and Brock Bowers in regards to being discussed as the best overall tight end in the league. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook are both consistently above average to well above average at their respective positions. However, neither one of those individuals behooves me as being amongst the premier players at their respective positions. Keon Coleman had a solid rookie year as the first pick of the 2024 second round but still ranked below average in terms of an offense grade among qualified wide outs. His improvement in year 2 for the team will be key for Buffalo if they plan to win the AFC/Super Bowl. If Coleman can emerge as a true star/superstar #1 wide out like his draft position and his play at times as a rookie indicates he is capable of becoming then the Bills will be in very good shape. The Bills are deep at running back as both their #2 and #3 halfbacks can potentially be starters and are not too far off from the production that James Cook gives the Bills. The Bills however lack depth from a receiving core standpoint as no reserve tight end or wide out can necessarily be relied upon to replicate the production that Buffalo gets from its starters in that regard. Reserve wide out Curtis Sameul has a high ceiling however and is still only turning 29 years old heading into next season but struggles with consistency.
Overall, on the offensive side of the ball the Bills were the #2 scoring offense in the NFL a season ago and there is certainly room to improve heading into next year. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady heads into his second full season calling plays on offense for the Bills so Buffalo can expect to see an improvement from an offensive schematic standpoint as a result. The Bills retained all five starters on the offensive line from a unit that allowed the least sacks out of any team last season. The Bills also have a reserve player in Alec Anderson who looked very strong in his first season accumulating snaps on the offensive line and perhaps he can become a starter next year improving the offensive line further. If Keon Coleman can begin to emerge as a star wide out which he is more than capable of doing then the Bills collection of skill position players would rank up there with almost anyone. Many regard quarterback Josh Allen to be the 2nd best quarterback in the NFL to Patrick Mahomes and he is still only turning 29 years old heading into next season. The only team who scored more points than the Bills this past season were the Detroit Lions. The Bills can expect to see an improvement offensively with offensive coordinator Joe Brady heading into his 2nd full season and with the potential improvement of 2024 rookie Keon Coleman. Whereas Detroit can expect to regress with the loss of star guard Kevin Zeitler and with the loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. So, the Bills are certainly in very strong position to have the NFL’s premier offense next season.
The defensive side of the ball was the more concerning aspect for the Bills this past season and their major defensive ranks from the 2024 season can be found below.
Bills 2024 Key Defensive Ranks/Grades
27th in defense grade
11th in points per game allowed
17th in yards per game allowed
Bills Defensive Lineman
ED – Gregory Rousseau – (12/135) defense grade over 736 snaps in 2024, B+ to A-
DL – Daquan Jones – (45/146) defense grade over 547 snaps in 2024, B to B+
DL – Ed Oliver – (21/146) defense grade over 603 snaps in 2024, B to B+
ED – Joey Bosa – (67/135) defense grade over 457 snaps for LAC in 2024, B to B+
ED – A.J Epenesa – (110/135) defense grade over 613 snaps in 2024, C+
ED – Javon Solomon – (30/135) defense grade over 135 snaps in 2024, B, 2024 5th rounder
ED – Michael Hoecht – (77/135) defense grade over 639 snaps in 2024 for Rams, C to C+
DL – Larry Ogunjobi – (110/146) defense grade over 495 snaps in 2024 for Pitt, C to C+
DL – Dewayne Carter – (133/146) defense grade over 315 snaps in 2024, D+ to C-, 2024 3rd rounder
DL – Branson Deen – 9 career snaps, undrafted 2024
DL – Zion Logue – 36 snaps, 2024 6th rounder
Bill Defensive Lineman from 2024 not currently or no longer on team
Dl – Jordan Phillips – (131/146) defense grade over 143 snaps in 2024, C-
DL – Eli Ankou – 34 snaps in 2024, D+ to C-
ED – Casey Toohill – (128/135) defense grade over 249 snaps in 2024, C to C-
DL – Austin Johnson – (84/146) defense grade over 307 snaps in 2024, C to C+
ED – Von Miller – (15/135) defense grade over 279 snaps in 2024, B+
ED – Kingsley Jonathan – 7 snaps in 2024, C+
DL – Quinton Jefferson – (106/146) defense grade over 252 snaps in 2024, C to C+
ED – Dawuane Smoot – (97/135) defense grade over 322 snaps in 2024, C+
Bills 2024 Key Defensive Line Stats/Grades
6th in pass rush grade according to Pro Football Focus
18th in sacks
As you can see from the above sets of data the Bills have a talented defensive line but one that is unfortunately erratic. All four of the defensive line starters were above average to well above average a season ago and that projects to be the case heading into next season as well. The big difference is that Joey Bosa now replaces Von Miller but questions are to be asked whether or not Buffalo has really improved in that regard by making that transaction. As both are aging injury prone once star pass rushers who are past their prime. However, Bosa is indeed much younger as he is turning only 30 this upcoming season where Von Miller is already in his mid-30s. The Bills were 6th in pass rush grade this past season and perhaps with a healthy Bosa instead of a banged up Von Miller who missed the majority of last season the Bills can climb into the top 5 of that ranking. The Bills can also see an improvement and take a leap into the top 5 of that category if edge rusher A.J Epenesa and defensive lineman Dewayne Carter have strong years. Epenesa who has struggled with consistency had a down year in the 2024 season but has a very high ceiling. Dewayne Carter, who was a third-round pick in the 2024 draft struggled as a rookie but has the potential to improve being drafted relatively high. Those two players could provide the Bills with some meaningful depth from a defensive line standpoint. Overall, the Bills on the defensive line ranked only 18th in the NFL in sacks but were graded as the 6th best pass rushing team a season ago. If Bosa can stay healthy and have a bounce back year and if a few reserve players can really step their game up then the Bills defensive line can take the next step forward. With that next step forward being producing like one of the premier defensive lines in the NFL which their high pass rush grade showed that they are capable of doing. I have conducted a similar analysis of the Bills linebacking core which can be found below.
Bills Linebackers
LB – Matt Milano – (85/92) defense grade in 2024 over 183 snaps, B to B+
LB – Terrel Bernard – (86/92) defense grade in 2024 over 750 snaps, C to C+
LB – Baylon Spector – (92/92) defense grade in 2024 over 291 snaps, D
LB – Dorian Williams – (53/92) defense grade in 2024 over 651 snaps, C
LB – Joe Andreessen – (20/92) defense grade in 2024 over 115 snaps, B to B+, undrafted 2024
LB – Edefuan Ulofoshio – (29/92) defense grade in 2024 over 65 snaps, 2024 5th rounder
Bills Linebackers from 2024 not currently or no longer on team
LB – Nicholas Morrow – poor in 44 snaps in 2024, C to C+
Bills Key Linebacking Statistics/Grades
27th in run defense grade according to Pro Football Focus
13th in tackling grade according to Pro Football Focus
12th in rushing yards per game allowed
As you can see from the above sets of data, the Bills got pretty meager production from their linebacking core this past season. But there is reason to be optimistic that the unit can improve next year. Matt Milano, who is typically one of the better linebackers in the sport struggled with injuries a season ago and had the worst season of his career as a result. If he can stay healthy next year the Bills will likely get amongst the best production from their primary linebacking spot instead of amongst the worst. Linebacker Terrel Bernard, who was a relatively high draft pick as a third rounder in 2022 has been hit and miss thus far in his NFL career. Perhaps he can come into his own next season. Linebacker Dorian Williams, who was a third rounder in the 2023 draft logged his first full season of snaps last year and was relatively average to mediocre. Perhaps in logging his 2nd full season of snaps he can come into his own as a relatively high draft pick. Linebackers Joe Andreesen and Edefuan Olofoshio who were both late round picks or undrafted rookies in 2024 looked very strong in the limited time they spent on the field this past season. One or two can certainly keep it up over a larger portion of snaps and blossom into high level starters for the Bills next season. In totality the linebacking unit was meager last season but there is strong reason to be optimistic about it heading into next year. The unit has several young players who can come into their own as they get more NFL snaps. The unit is also led by Matt Milano who is typically one of the better if not one of the best linebackers but who really struggled with injuries a season ago. If Milano can stay healthy and regain form and if at least one of the young players can come into their own and become high level starters for Buffalo, then the Bills will have a very strong linebacking unit next season. I have conducted a similar analysis of the Bills secondary which can be found below.
Bills Secondary Players
Starters
CB – Christian Benford – (4/128) defense grade over 934 snaps in 2024, A to A-
S – Taylor Rapp – (75/104) defense grade over 779 snaps in 2024, C+ to B-
S – Damar Hamlin – (70/104) defense grade over 875 snaps in 2024, C
CB – Dane Jackson – (128/128) defense grade over 282 snaps in 2024 for Car, C to C+
CB – Taron Johnson – (58/128) defense grade over 646 snaps in 2024, B
Reserves
CB – Brandon Codrington – (118/128) defense grade over 70 career snaps, undrafted 2024
S – Cole Bishop – (99/104) defense grade over 358 snaps in 2024, D+ so far as 2024 2nd rounder
S – Darrick Forrest – (43/104) defense grade over 74 snaps in 2024 for Was, C+ to B-
CB – Jamarcus Ingram – (90/128) defense grade over 212 snap in 2024, C
CB/S – Cam Lewis – (69/104) defense grade over 597 snaps in 2024, C+
CB – Te’Cory Couch – 0 career snaps, undrafted 2024
CB – Daequan Hardy – 0 career snaps, 6th round 2024
Bills Secondary Players from 2024 not currently or no longer on team
CB – Rasul Douglas – (88/128) defense grade in 2024 over 831 snaps, B-
CB – Kair Elam – (32/128) defense grade in 2024 over 305 snaps, B-
S – Kareem Jackson – 33 snaps in 2024, B
S – Mike Edwards – (26/104) defense grade in 2024 over 191 snaps, B-
Bills 2024 Key Secondary Statistics/Grades
31st in coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus
24th in passing yards per game according to Pro Football Focus
As you can see from the above data the secondary of the Bills was the weak point of the defense and also the weak point of the team last season as well. Christian Benford is a star for the team and Taron Johnson was effective but outside of that the unit struggled last season. Safety Taylor Rapp has a high ceiling but is very inconsistent. Damar Hamlin is likely better suited as a backup as in two seasons starting for the Bills, he has graded below average both times. Rasul Douglas is also inconsistent but can be very effective but struggled last season for the Bills starting at corner. Douglas, Kareem Jackson, and Mike Edwards, all of whom can be very effective are all free agents as of now. Kair Elam, who was also at times effective for the Bills, departed for the Cowboys. Perhaps the Bills can still resign some of those free agents to bolster a secondary that needs some help. In the meantime, the Bills have signed Dane Jackson from the Carolina Panthers at corner who is likely best suited as a backup although he can be effective. As things currently stand Taron Johnson and Christian Benford are very effective if not elite for the Bills on the backend. The remaining three starting secondary spots are however a big question mark. Safety Taylor Rapp is very inconsistent but the former 2nd round pick has shown a very high ceiling. Safety Damar Hamlin is likely best suited in a reserve role and 2024 2nd round pick Cole Bishop who struggled as a rookie will be in line to replace Hamlin starting at safety. One of the three cornerback spots which is currently filled by Dane Jackson is a big question mark as Buffalo as things currently stand do not have a capable starter at the position. Perhaps they can address the need in the draft or resign an aforementioned player or two who was on the roster last year to address that spot. The secondary was the biggest question mark for the Bills last season and remains the biggest question mark as of now. The Bills will be on the clock to solve that problem heading into next season.
Overall, on the defensive end the Bills were inconsistent but at times effective a season ago. They ranked 11th in the NFL in scoring defense but Pro Football Focus graded them as having the 27th best defense in the NFL. In the Bills playoff loss, the Chiefs scored 32 points which was the first time that the Chiefs had crossed the 30-point marker in regulation all season long. Head coach Sean McDermott is a defensive minded head coach whose defense let the team down a season ago and in previous playoff losses has also let the team down. He will be on the clock to have his defense produce at a better level come postseason time next year. Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich heads into his second season as the play caller for the Bills defense and the Bills can expect to see an improvement as a result. Points allowed is still the biggest barometer of success on the defensive end for a team and the Bills were still borderline top 10 in that department a season ago. The Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, and Ravens along with the Bills were the five teams capable of winning a title a season ago and all four of the remaining teams had better scoring defenses than Buffalo in 2024. Despite the Bills being the only one out of the five with a defensive minded head coach. The Bills will need veteran stars such as Matt Milano and Joey Bosa to stay healthier and recapture their old form, along with seeing young unproven/inconsistent players in the linebacking core and secondary really up their game if they want to have a Super Bowl caliber defense. They will also need to address one of their cornerback spots which is really a weak point on the team if they want to have a defense that they can win a title with. As stated previously defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, going into his second full season in the position could loom large for the Bills improving defensively. The Bills defensive minded head coach Sean McDermott can be inconsistent with the defenses that he puts out and they tend to regress come postseason time but no one can question his acumen as a defensive mind. In 8 seasons as the head man for the Bills he has had a top 4 scoring defense 4 times and a top 2 scoring defense 3 times. Take out his first two years on the job where Allen struggled to keep the defense off the field and Buffalo mostly had a rebuilding roster and that 4 out of 8 becomes 4 out of 6. The remaining two times his defense finished 16th and this past season finished 11th. With the potential roster improvement and his defensive coordinator going into year 2 there is no reason the Bills defense cannot return to its previous form under McDermott. Having the defense produce at an adequate level come playoff time will be the challenge, however.
In totality with the Bills, they were still only one of five teams a season ago who were capable of winning a title as Buffalo narrowly lost in the conference title. Outside of it being a quarterback league it is a coaching league and out of those five teams the Bills are the only one with both coordinators going into their second full season on the job. Buffalo can expect to see an improvement on both sides of the ball as a result. The Bills scored the 2nd most points in the NFL last season and for aforementioned reasons they certainly have what it takes to be number one in that department next year. The Bills for the most part have an elite defense under McDermott which regressed this past season and the defense can certainly return to form next season. I could certainly see a scenario in which Buffalo makes the Super Bowl but beating likely the Eagles or Lions in the Super Bowl would be a tall task.
