Entering the season expectations were sky high for the Miami Dolphins as the front office and the fanbase felt as if this would finally be the breakout season for the Mike McDaniel-Tua Tagovailoa rendition of the Dolphins. In the first three seasons of the McDaniel-Tua era in Miami the Dolphins showed flashes of excellence. In year 1 of the era during the 2022 season the Dolphins made the postseason and narrowly lost on the road to the Bills in the playoffs. Despite the quick postseason exit the first season of the era should be viewed as a success. As the Bills with Josh Allen are consistently a Super Bowl threat and Miami came up just three points short to them on the road despite franchise QB Tua Tagovailoa being unavailable and Mike McDaniel being a rookie head coach. In year 2 of the McDaniel-Tua era in the 2023 season the Dolphins looked very viable and were a legitimate Super Bowl threat to many. Towards the end of the season the Dolphins had a three-game lead in the division over the Bills as the regular season waned and Vegas had Miami listed as the team with the third best Super Bowl odds. Miami unfortunately had a very disappointing end to the regular season finishing 2-3, blowing the division lead, and having to settle for a wild card berth. Miami was then completely exposed in the postseason as a warm weather team that suffered an ugly three possession loss on the road in one of the coldest NFL games ever vs Kansas City.
The Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals have consistently been the class of the AFC in recent memory. In the first two seasons of the McDaniel-Tua era the Dolphins have looked on par with those teams with regularity. When compared to their fellow division rival, the Bills, Miami lost by just three points in the playoffs to Buffalo despite Miami having a rookie head coach, being on the road, and Miami not having their franchise QB available. The next season, Miami proceeded to hold a three-game lead over the Bills in the division deep into the regular season. In the early portion of the 2022 season which was the first season of the McDaniel-Tua era in Miami, the Dolphins tallied wins over both the Bills and Ravens in consecutive weeks. In the 2023 season the Dolphins outplayed the Ravens for much of the first half who were historically great and annihilating teams during that season. Miami also thoroughly outplayed the Chiefs after going down 21-0 vs Kansas City that season, suffering a narrow 21-14 loss. Miami was also in control of a game late in the season vs the Bills holding a lead entering the fourth quarter before squandering that game. Despite the ugly playoff loss Miami suffered during the 2023 season to the Chiefs, things were looking very up for the franchise. As the team with Tua-Mike McDaniel had shown that they could consistently make the playoffs, be highly competitive in the playoffs, and had also shown they can consistently be on the same level with the elite AFC teams.
Despite the high points the team reached in years 1 and 2 of the McDaniel-Tua era and the optimism that surrounded the franchise. The optimism was still cautious as heading into year 3 of the McDaniel-Tua era before the 2024 season, the Dolphins possessed a 2-8 record vs the likes of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and Kansas City, which included eight straight losses after winning the first two matchups vs that elite AFC crowd. Miami had still yet to win a postseason game with their current head coach + QB combination and concerns about the durability of Tua along with the inability of the team to play in the cold weather were brought to light. As Tua’s lack of durability and availability along with not just his inability to play in the cold but the team’s inability to play in the cold directly led to the Dolphins’ season ending in years 1 and 2 of the Tua-McDaniel era. Tua’s durability concerns cost Miami during the 2024 season as the Dolphins looked abysmal without him for the most part. Although Miami looked very strong with him healthy at the helm in large part during 2024, Tua unfortunately missed several games during the 2024 season where Miami really seemed to miss him. With Tua healthy during the 2024 season the Dolphins looked very strong in games vs Super Bowl contending teams in the Rams and Bills. As Miami led the whole game and won vs the Rams on the road who were the only team to give the eventual champion Eagles any trouble come postseason time. Miami also lost a close fought back and forth game on the road vs the Bills by three points, with Buffalo of course making the AFC championship game that season. Miami would have likely made the postseason if Tagovailoa was available more that season but Miami having a meager backup QB situation despite the major durability concerns of Tagovailoa should be alarming.
Heading into this season the fanbase and the front office were incredibly hopeful that Miami could come into their own and establish themselves as a consistent threat to win the AFC. The reasons for optimism revolved around two things primarily, the defensive improvement that Miami saw during the 2024 season along with a more desirable backup QB spot. In the first two seasons of the McDaniel-Tua era in Miami the Dolphins’ defense struggled ranking in the bottom ten in the NFL in points allowed both seasons. Whereas during the 2024 season, Miami ranked in the top ten in terms of points allowed while ranking 4th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed on defense, a top 5-10 defense by the two most important metrics. The success that Miami saw on defense last season also provided reason for optimism in that the Dolphins were able to pull that off despite unideal circumstances. Unideal circumstances which can be described in the following fashion. Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver was still in just his first season with the Dolphins in 2024, which was also just his second season in totality as a defensive coordinator in the NFL. The Dolphins’ offense also ranked below average by all major metrics during the 2024 season because of Tua missing several games, thus putting the defense in undesirable spots. Despite those two hinderances the Dolphins still finished as a top 5-10 defense in terms of both points and yards allowed. If Miami’s offense returned to elite form along with defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver improving as he gained more experience in the role, the sky seemed to be the limit for the Dolphins on the defensive side of things as the season approached. As Miami was in line to go from having a top 5-10 defense to a definitive top 5 defense that was as good as any in the league. In terms of the backup QB spot, Tua is the first or second most injury prone QB in the NFL and despite that the Dolphins have had a very meager backup QB situation behind him as he has started. Miami has since invested in former 2nd overall pick Zach Wilson to backup Tua along with selecting former University of Texas standout Quinn Ewers in the 2025 NFL Draft. Wilson could follow a similar trajectory to Sam Darnold and Geno Smith, two QBs who struggled mightily to begin their careers with the Jets who consistently put QBs in positions to fail. But then both Smith and Darnold lived up to expectations as a high second round pick and as a top 10 pick respectively as they went to franchises who served the QB spot better. Wilson was selected 2nd overall by the Jets and struggled to start his career with that franchise as well. If Wilson can live up to his high draft standing just as Geno Smith and Sam Darnold did, the Dolphins could have a budding star at the backup QB spot. Not to mention Quinn Ewers who was universally touted as a potential first round pick for an extended period before falling in the draft.
The 2025 season was supposed to be the season that Miami put it all together and at least consistently established themselves as a perennial threat to win the AFC. As Miami could build off their 2022 postseason finish where they lost by three points to a Super Bowl contending team in the playoffs despite the Dolphins having a rookie head coach and being on a backup QB on the road. Where the offense returned to its 2023 form where Miami had the best offensive attack in the NFL when the Dolphins ranked 2nd in points scored and 1st in yards accumulated. Where the defense took things up a notch from the 2024 season and became an elite defense with defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver going into year 2 in the role with Miami’s offense returning to form as well to help the cause. However, the 2025 season got off to an incredibly undesirable start as Miami suffered the worst defeat of any NFL team in week 1 losing 33-8 to the Colts. Miami then proceeded to narrowly lose to the Patriots at home in week 2. Questions surrounding the job security of head coach Mike McDaniel and the future of starting QB Tua Tagovailoa began to mount. Miami was then a double-digit underdog on the road vs the Bills which was a game that almost everyone expected the Dolphins to lose badly. As the Dolphins were a reeling 0-2 team playing maybe the best team in the NFL on the road. Through nearly 3.5 quarters the Bills and Dolphins seemed dead even as they traded scores and the game was tied at 21-21 with slightly over 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Miami was then in line to get the ball back with a chance to take the lead before a costly roughing the punter penalty cost the Dolphins. Buffalo then resecured possession and scored a touchdown thus taking the lead directly stemming from the penalty. Miami then got the ball back and drove down to nearly the Bills redzone before QB Tua Tagovailoa threw a very uncharacteristic interception that essentially ended the game. Despite the loss, Miami should be optimistic about the rest of the season and concerns about the future of their head coach and QB have certainly dissipated. As the Dolphins played the team that is currently the favorite to win the Super Bowl on the road and there was no little to no gap between the two teams before Miami made a few costly errors.
Take out the first five quarters of the season where the Dolphins were ostensibly shell shocked on the road vs a surprising Colts team which carried over into the first quarter of the Patriots game, and Miami seems to be in pretty good shape. The Dolphins outplayed a talented New England team the rest of the way after giving up a multiple possession lead in the first quarter but the early hole that Miami dug themselves was too much to overcome. There then seemed to be little to no gap between the Dolphins and the Bills in week 3 before Miami made a few crucial errors, with the Bills of course being the favorite to win the Super Bowl as of now while being in sole possession of the league’s best record as well. The week 1 loss vs the Colts was not good by any stretch but there have been numerous occasions where a team who ended up winning the Super Bowl got blown out at one point in the regular season. A very small percentage of teams have made the postseason after starting off 0-3 but the feat has still been done several times and Miami is in line to do it in the 2025 season.
As the season progresses the Dolphins certainly remain a dangerous team that I would not want to play. If Miami can put it all together as I outlined previously the team’s only real weaknesses would lie in Tua’s durability and the inability of the team to play in the cold. Two concerns which have directly led to the Dolphins’ season ending in the first three campaigns of the McDaniel-Tua era. Miami acknowledged the fact that Tua is indeed injury prone and are seemingly making a concerted effort to keep him healthy by having him get rid of the ball quicker and not putting him in scenarios in which he is forced to use his legs. The presence of Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers at the backup QB spots give the Dolphins some potential star power at the backup QB spot that they previously have not had with Tua as the starter. The cold weather concerns that are brought up with the Dolphins are indeed valid. However, it is certainly a correctable issue and it’s not as if the Dolphins would be the first warm weather team to win a Super Bowl. The return of star tight end Darren Waller from injury is also huge for the Dolphins. Although it remains to be seen if Waller coming out retirement can return to his previous form, his return should still provide optimism for Miami. As I evaluated the remainder of the Dolphins’ tight end unit to be perhaps the weakest in the NFL entering the season. With the Dolphins’ tight ends performing at perhaps the weakest level in the league thus far accounting for a combined 4 receptions in 3 games. The Dolphins getting a potential star in Waller at tight end instead of having players who might be out of the NFL soon play at the tight end spot could loom large for Miami on offense. Although every team has injuries, I cannot think of another player who is a non-QB that is returning from injury having as big of an impact as Waller could have for Miami when he returns. Given his electric talent and the Dolphins’ tight end unit thus far in 2025 being perhaps the weakest in the NFL.
Comparing the Dolphins to the remaining AFC crowd as the 2025 season progresses, should provide fans with cautious optimism. The Chargers, Steelers and Broncos have not shown they can be consistently elite offensively nor have they shown they can go toe to toe with elite AFC competition come playoff time like Miami has. With the Dolphins’ defense in the McDaniel-Tua era showing consistently just as high or nearly as high of a ceiling as any of those teams. A very similar argument could be made for Houston, but I will acknowledge that Houston has shown the capability to be highly competitive in the postseason vs elite AFC opposition. The Bengals currently have their superstar QB out for the vast majority of the regular season although with him healthy they certainly are a team that should be viewed as bigger threat to win the AFC than Miami. Although the Dolphins have just as high if not a higher ceiling than the Bengals even in the scenario when Burrow returns. The Jaguars, Patriots, and Raiders with their respective head coach and QB combinations are totally unproven and Miami given their track record should be heralded as stronger than those teams as of now despite the Dolphins’ loss to the Patriots. The Colts annihilated the Dolphins in week 1 and have one of the best rosters in the NFL playing in maybe the weakest division in the NFL. So, I would favor the Colts over Miami as well although Miami with McDaniel-Tua is still more proven than the Colts with Daniel Jones-Shane Steichen. The Jets, Browns, and Titans are rebuilding teams as of now and Miami despite their 0-3 mark should be viewed in a greater light than those three teams for now. The Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens have been the class of the AFC in recent memory and Miami does not deserve to be placed in the same group as those three teams. However the Chiefs are winless just like Miami is, the Dolphins played the Bills on the road and there was seemingly little to no gap between the two teams, and Baltimore is not to be trusted come postseason time. As I would venture to say that the Dolphins’ narrow postseason loss vs the Bills during the 2022 season was a more impressive postseason performance than any postseason performance Baltimore has had in the Lamar Jackson era. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills as of now are in a class of their own in the AFC. Despite the Dolphins 0-3 mark, Miami should be viewed as one of the teams that is next in line to join that group along with the Chargers, Colts, and Bengals. I view Miami in a greater light than the likes of Denver, Houston, and Pittsburgh in the AFC. Teams that have relatively bleak offensive outlooks as of now in an offense leaning league. Despite the Dolphins 0-3 record, they should be viewed as a potentially dangerous playoff team that could become a legitimate Super Bowl threat if they put it all together.
